CHANTILLY, Va.—BIA Advisory Services has revised its 2026 U.S. Local Advertising Forecast (released in Q4 2025), projecting total local ad revenue to reach $184.5 billion, reflecting approximately 8.1% year-over-year growth compared with 2025.
BIA said the increase over the prior estimate of $181.7 billion is driven by stronger-than-expected performance in mobile (particularly social), video, and streaming, political ad spend, and advertising technology.
“Our updated forecast reflects continued momentum in social and connected and over the top television, which are capturing a growing share of local advertising budgets,” said Senan Mele, vice president of forecasting and data analysis, BIA Advisory Services. “At the same time, traditional media such as broadcast television, cable and radio remain essential, providing the scale, credibility, and local connection that advertisers rely on to drive awareness and demand.”
Political advertising will drive key spending this year. BIA projects approximately $8.4 billion in local political spending, creating substantial revenue opportunities across broadcast television, linear cable, CTV/OTT, radio, and direct mail.
BIA’s forecast also points to two growth factors driving the local advertising economy: near-term revenue from political spending and long-term growth fueled by key verticals, including real estate, restaurants, travel, retail, and financial services. Total local advertising is projected to exceed $222 billion by 2030, according to BIA’s forecast.
“The local advertising marketplace continues to reflect a K-shaped consumer economy,” said Rick Ducey, managing director, BIA Advisory Services. “Stronger spending from higher-income households is supporting discretionary categories like travel, leisure, and automotive, while value-oriented spending is shaping demand in retail, restaurants, and essential services.”
The forecast update also underscores the ongoing transformation of the media mix. Growth is being driven by digital channels – particularly mobile, social, and connected TV – while traditional media continues to play a critical role in delivering reach and brand impact.
While some legacy formats, including print, continue to face long-term declines, others are evolving, the researchers reported.
Across the market, advertisers are increasingly adopting full-funnel strategies, combining high-reach media such as cable, broadcast, and OOH with data-driven digital channels to drive both awareness and measurable outcomes. Radio also remains a stable local medium, with additional opportunities emerging through digital audio, including streaming and podcasts.
“Overall, the local advertising market is not contracting; it is transforming. The most successful media companies will be those that can combine local audience scale with targeting, optimization, and measurement to capture both cyclical political spending and ongoing demand from growth-oriented verticals,” added Mele.
As part of this forecast update, BIA has enhanced its methodology to better reflect changes in the marketplace, including adding Digital Out of Home (DOOH) as a distinct media category within the forecast, rather than grouping it with traditional Out of Home (OOH). This change highlights the increasing importance of digital, programmatic, and location-based media in local campaigns.
More information is available at http://bia.com.
