LONDON—A new study from Digital TV Research is forecasting that global SVOD subs will hit 1.69 billion by 2027, up 485 million from 2021 and that six large U.S. based platforms will hit nearly 1 billion subs (998 million) by 2027, up from 612 million in 2021.
Netflix will add 31 million subscribers between 2021 and 2027, despite losing 4 million subscribers in North America. It will have 253 million subs by 2027.
Disney+ will overtake Netflix in 2025. Disney+ will add 144 million subscribers between 2021 and 2027 to take its total to 274 million
“Our Netflix forecasts for 2027 are 29 million lower than our February update - at 253 million,” said Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research. “Netflix needs to boost its content to counter its fresher and cheaper rivals.”
Disney+ Hotstar will roll out to 13 Asian countries by 2027. These countries will supply 114 million (42%) of the global Disney+ subscriber total, but only $1.58 billion (11%) of Disney+’ revenues [$14.7 billion] by 2027.
That means Netflix will remain the revenue winner, with $34 billion by 2027 – similar to Disney+, HBO Max and Paramount+ combined. However, the Netflix total is only $4 billion more than 2021 as subscriber growth decelerates and ARPU is squeezed.
By 2027 Amazon will have 252 million global subs, followed by Paramount+ at 91 million, HBO Max at 89 million and Apple TV at 30 million.
