As broadcasters push to end ownership caps that they contend has hurt their competitive position, new data from Guideline provides some depressing details on just how much the local TV ad spend has declined as a percent of the overall advertising market.
That data shows that local TV accounted for only 6% of total media spending through June of 2025, which is less than half of the 13% share of media spending that local TV had in 2017.
In contrast, digital video has increased its market share from 15% in 2017 to 50% in the first half of 2025. Meanwhile network TV's share declined from 72% in 2017 to 44% in 2025, according to the Guideline data.
These shifts, the researchers note, reflect ongoing structural changes in the media buying landscape as broadcasters face increased competition from digital and social media. In response the industry has been pushing to end ownership caps and consolidate operations.
Guideline’s dataset, which is indicative of the buying trends of the largest advertisers in the US, also found that local TV spend at the product category level remains highly concentrated, with Automotive, Entertainment & Media, Financial Services and Technology accounting for 69% of the spending.
So far this year, that reliance on a few major categories has hurt broadcasters, with all four posting double-digit YoY declines. Automotive is down 15.7%, Entertainment & Media down 20.4%, Financial Services down 19.3% and Tech down 20.7% in terms of their local TV spending, according to Guideline.
By comparison, across the broader Guideline pool, these categories are performing very differently. Automotive is down just -0.8% YoY, Entertainment & Media only -2.9%, while Financial Services up +14.1% and Tech up +9.7% in terms of their total spending. This underscores that local TV is underperforming these categories’ overall media activity, the researchers noted.
Additional findings include:
- Certain subcategories are growing faster in local TV than digital Video, like Beer & Ale and Motion Pictures. Beer & Ale is up 124% in local TV compared to +6% in digital video. Motion Pictures are up 72% in local TV compared to +42% in digital video.
- When looking at the five largest station groups by footprint in local TV to understand how consolidation could reshape pricing power at the local level, Guideline data shows that prime time median average CPM indices reveal systematic pricing differences. Gray and Sinclair consistently index above market norms, while Tegna and Scripps remain discounted. These indices represent the station groups’ stations’ indexing relative to their local peers.
- In late news among women 25-54, stations from Nexstar, Sinclair and Gray consistently trade above the market median, signaling strong pricing power. By contrast, Tegna and Scripps remain below 100, suggesting they regularly under index relative to the market median, the researchers explained.
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