CHANTILLY, Va.—BIA Advisory Services has updated its 2026 U.S. Local Advertising Forecast, projecting total local ad revenue to reach $186.1 billion, up $1.6 billion (+0.9%) from the firm's April 2026 estimate of $184.5 billion and approximately 9% year over year from 2025.
The increase is driven primarily by higher political ad spending heading into the midterms, along with continued strength in mobile.
The stronger than expected political ad spend is particularly good news for local TV stations as most of the growth has been flowing into TV station broadcasts and TV station digital platforms, the researchers said.
Overall, BIA is now projecting the TV over-the-air and TV digital/OTT ad revenue will hit $19.8 billion in 2026.
The firm also released a preliminary outlook for 2027 that sees growth in mobile and underlying local ad growth, particularly in Legal Services vertical, that will offset the end of the election cycle in 2027 and keep next year’s local ad spend essentially flat compared to 2026.
Excluding political advertising, the 2026 forecast is now $176.4 billion, up $0.3 billion (+0.2%) from the prior estimate of $176.1 billion and 3.9% over 2025, reflecting steady, broad-based growth across the underlying local ad market.
“Political spending came in higher than we anticipated in April, with most of the incremental spending flowing into TV OTA and TV OTT,” said Senan Mele, vice president of forecasting and data analysis, BIA Advisory Services. “Legal Services was also notable in this update, reaching $9.3 billion, up 4.6% from the prior forecast. Despite higher media costs and a more fragmented media environment, law firms continue to invest heavily in television, both linear and streaming, where the ability to reach large audiences and generate qualified leads continues to drive demand.”
BIA now projects $9.7 billion in 2026 for local political spending, up from $8.4 billion in the April forecast, which is an increase of $1.3 billion concentrated almost entirely in video. TV OTA and TV OTT together captured $1.2 billion of that increase, reinforcing broadcast and streaming video's role as a preferred vehicle for political campaigns.
The new data shows that mobile keeps compounding, and AI reshapes search.
Mobile remains the largest local media category tracked by BIA, projected to grow to $45.3 billion in 2026 (excluding political), an 8.9% year-over-year increase. This growth comes as competition intensifies in A.I.-fueled search advertising, a category that local advertisers have traditionally relied on to reach consumers across mobile devices.
“Google, OpenAI, Amazon, and Apple are all positioning themselves to capture a larger share of advertising tied to AI-powered search,” said Mike Boland, executive in residence, BIA Advisory Services. “Google’s Gemini is increasingly becoming an extension of its advertising business, while OpenAI, Amazon, and Apple are developing their own approaches to monetize search and discovery. For local advertisers, the bigger question is where consumer intent will emerge and which platforms will capture it. Mobile will be a critical battleground as that shift unfolds.”
BIA also highlighted some of the growth categories heading into 2027.
BIA's first look at 2027 projects total local ad revenue of $186.5 billion, essentially flat versus 2026. About $9 billion in underlying, nonpolitical growth is expected to nearly offset an $8.6 billion decline in political spending as the election cycle ends. Political spending is projected to fall to approximately $1.1 billion in the 2027 off-cycle year.
BIA’s Mele explained that “political spending will decline sharply after the midterms, but the underlying nonpolitical market has continued to grow and should offset much of that decline. We expect the overall local advertising market to remain essentially flat in 2027, with continued growth across core categories helping to support the market in an off-cycle year.”
Beneath that stable topline, several categories are projected to grow well above the market average. Real estate leads at +9.8%, followed by leisure and recreation (+5.9%), automotive (+5.1%), restaurants and food (+4.4%), and financial services (+3.7%).
“2027 makes clear that the underlying growth in local advertising is broader and more durable than the political cycle alone would suggest,” said Rick Ducey, managing director, BIA Advisory Services. “Political spending has accelerated the market and delivered a strong two-year period for broadcast and streaming video, but the more important story is what happens beneath that surge. Core categories continue to expand their investments across an increasingly diverse media ecosystem. That sustained, multi-platform demand, and the media channels that capture it, will shape the next phase of local media.”
For more information on the data, which comes from BIA ADVantage and to access the updated forecast, contact advantage@bia.com to request a demonstration.
