A new study from Kagan Research forecasts that nearly 20 million HD sets will be sold to U.S. consumers in 2006 (more than all American HD sets sold, so far, combined), and predicts that 104 million HD sets will be sold by 2008 -- resulting in about 78 million HD households (out of more than 110 million U.S. households) by 2008.
Kagan (as one might expect) said an essential factor in HD set adoption is lower prices. The research firm projects the average price of an HD set will decline by about 40 percent by 2010, to an average price (including lingering CRT units) of $1,140. Rapid price declines, coupled with increasing levels of HD programming, will drive the number of HD households to 97 million in 2010, which would be a household penetration rate (by then) of perhaps 85 percent.
HD set sales now constitute about 85 percent of all DTV sales and although sales of lower-priced analog sets continue; those receivers will become totally set-top converter dependent in three years. Kagan said the number of cable HD subs grew from 2.3 million in 2004 to a still anemic 3.8 million in 2005. At the end of this year, Kagan estimates this figure will grow to 6.6 million.
As for DBS, Kagan projects there will be nearly 19 million HD subs by 2010.
