LONDON—Netflix has long been the OTT leader in the U.S., but its share of the market is starting to wane as other streaming services, particularly Disney+, make their own gains in the market. ComprarAcciones estimates that 2021 will see a noticeable drop in Netflix’s share of the market, from 36.2% to 30.8%.
In 2020, Netflix’s U.S. OTT subscription revenue rose by more than $1 billion from 2019—$9.24 billion to $10.64 billion. Netflix ended 2020 with 203.7 million paid subscribers, with 36.6 million being added during the year, the company’s highest annual gain.
Netflix’s revenue is not expected to dip either. Projections have the streaming service increasing its revenue to $11.76 billion in 2021 and $12.95 billion in 2022.
Despite this, Netflix is still expected to lose market share in 2021.
The main culprit is likely to be Disney+. The Walt Disney Company streaming service just announced that it has surpassed 100 million global subscribers and its 2020 revenue skyrocketed from $130 million in 2019 (the service launched in November 2019) to $1.94 billion for all of 2020, a 1,412.5% growth, per ComprarAcciones.
Disney+’s revenue growth will come back down to Earth over the next couple of years, but is still expected to be a hearty 47.9% growth in 2021 to $2.87 billion and 47.5% in 2022 to $4.23 billion.
As of the end of 2020, Disney+ holds 6.6% of the U.S. OTT market share. That is estimated to increase to 7.5% in 2021 and 9.3% in 2022.
Looking at the U.S. subscription video market as a whole (OTT and pay-TV), ComprarAcciones reported a total revenue of $115.57 billion in 2020. It projects that it will increase to $119.69 billion in 2021 and continue to rise, though with some leveling off, to reach $122.94 billion by 2024.
ComprarAcciones also shared data that streaming currently holds a 68% share of TV viewing, while traditional TV comes in at just 28%.
For more information, visit ComprarAcciones’ website.
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