ALEXANDRIA, Va.—New projections from AdImpact indicate that the 2026 election cycle will reach $11.6 billion in spending, making it the most expensive on record.
The $11.6 billion projection is up 30% from the midterm record set in 2022 at $8.9 billion will even surpass the $11.2 billion spent during the 2024 presidential cycle. That would be the first time that midterm spending has been larger than previous presidential election cycle.
“Current spending is pacing well ahead of previous years, with multiple record-breaking races already concluded and early pre-booking numbers indicating spending will remain strong through the campaign season,” said John Link, senior vice president of data at AdImpact. “As the fallout of redistricting plays out, we expect that the remaining competitive seats will draw more concentrated spending than ever.”
Broadcast television remains the dominant force in political advertising, maintaining 48% of total cycle spending. AdImpact is projecting $5.6 billion in spending, up $330 million from its previous projection of $5.3 billion released in September 2025.
While the 2026 election cycle will be a bonanza for broadcasters, connected television continues its ascent as the fastest-growing media type in political advertising. AdImpact has revised its projection from $2.5 billion to $2.7 billion, maintaining its 23% share of total cycle spending. Digital spending across Facebook, Google, Snapchat and X has also been revised upward to $1.6 billion, a 9% increase from the original projection.
AdImpact’s updated estimate is driven by a handful of spending increases in statewide Senate and gubernatorial races. Ohio sees the largest increase from initial projections, jumping by $309 million to a revised total of $749 million. Texas and Maine are also leading the growth, with Texas jumping $288 million and Maine increasing $185 million due to early Senate race activity.
Overall, the competitive landscape of the Senate has evolved since last fall, driving an increase from $2.8 billion to $3.4 billion in AdImpact’s latest projection. This marks a 48% increase over 2022 and 27% increase over 2024. In the House, AdImpact is revising its previous projection down from $2.2 billion to $2 billion as redistricting outcomes led to 28 races becoming less competitive.
Gubernatorial spending has risen 25% from AdImpact’s previous estimate, going from $1.9 billion to $2.4 billion. California’s gubernatorial race is on pace to become the most expensive in history, with a projected $351 million. Georgia, projected at $197 million, is on pace to rank among the most expensive gubernatorial races in history.
Additionally, down ballot and state legislative spending are on pace to reach record levels in 2026, with a combined projected spend of $3.7 billion, surpassing the prior high of $3.2 billion in 2022. Down ballot spending alone is projected at $3 billion, the highest single-cycle total on record. State legislative spending is similarly elevated, with $698 million projected for 2026, up 17% from 2024.
The full report is available here.
