Scatter Orders Coming in Two Days Prior to Air

Broadcast has modest exposure to potential retail sector boost
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NEW YORK: Orders in the TV scatter advertising market are coming in close to air time, according to Wells Fargo analyst Marci Ryvicker.

“Broadcast and cable scatter rates are up mid-high singles versus the upfront, and business is being written as few as two days before air date, which we expect to continue for at least the rest of the year,” she wrote.

Wells Fargo also issued an analysis of September’s retail results, October expectations, and the exposure of broadcast and outdoor media:

“September same-store retail sales were better than expected. As reported by various media, sales at stores open at least a year increased by 0.6 percent versus consensus’ expectation of a 1.1 percent decline, with nearly 80 percent of companies beating expectations,” on data is collected from 30 retailers. “The last year-over-year increase in same-store retail sales of +0.2 percent was reported in August 2008.

“While the better-than-expected figures reported this morning could be construed as a positive, we caution media investors not to get too excited about a sustainable consumer-led recovery just yet.... Last year, September same-store sales fell by 0.9 percent, making year-over-year comparisons relatively easy. The change in the Labor Day holiday from August 2008 to September 2009 likely pushed a significant amount of buying activity from August into September.

“The International Council of Shopping Centers is predicting October same-store sales to be flat despite very easy comparisons of -4.1 percent. This ‘gloomy’' forecast--at least as we perceive it--is likely due to the persistent lack of credit for the American consumer in addition to a difficult job market.

“While we caution that the September excitement could be deceiving, should there be a true recovery in the retail sector, outdoor has the most to gain given its significant exposure to this category, at 10 percent. Radio is next, at 7 percent with broadcast television at roughly 4 percent.”