New SVOD Forecast: Disney+ Will Beat Netflix in Sub Counts by 2025

(Image credit: Disney)

LONDON—Digital TV Research is predicting that Disney+ will surpass Netflix as the world’s largest SVOD player in terms of sub counts by 2025. 

The new report is forecasting that three platforms will control nearly half the world’s SVOD subscriptions by 2026 and that Disney+ will be the biggest winner, overtaking Netflix a year earlier in 2025. 

Disney+ will add 140 million subscribers between 2021 and 2026, bringing its total sub count to 284 million, the reported noted. About 121 million of Disney+’ subscribers (43% of its total) in 2026 will be in the 13 Asian countries under the Hotstar brand.

But Netflix will add 53 million subscribers to reach 271 million subscribers by 2026; revealing growth even for the most established platform, the report said. 

Simon Murray, the principal analyst at Digital TV Research, who made the forecasts also explained that “China and the US had a similar number of subscriptions by end-2020. Due to government pressure, China’s growth is decelerating, with 354 million subscriptions expected by 2026. The US will continue to grow, with 450 million subscriptions expected by 2026.”

Overall, the report forecasts that global SVOD subscriptions will increase by 491 million between 2021 and 2026 to reach 1.64 billion. China and the US will together account for 49% of the global total by 2026, down from 56% in 2021.

More information on the report can be found here

George Winslow

George Winslow is the senior content producer for TV Tech. He has written about the television, media and technology industries for nearly 30 years for such publications as Broadcasting & Cable, Multichannel News and TV Tech. Over the years, he has edited a number of magazines, including Multichannel News International and World Screen, and moderated panels at such major industry events as NAB and MIP TV. He has published two books and dozens of encyclopedia articles on such subjects as the media, New York City history and economics.