Juniper mobile entertainment forecast studies impact of recession

Best- and worst-case scenarios predict that mobile entertainment growth will slow
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A bad economy and high-cost data services in many markets are among the factors depressing the mobile entertainment market, according to Juniper Research.

The mobile entertainment market will reach nearly 36 billion dollars in 2010, according to a new study from Juniper Research, which reports that the revenue growth may be much lower if the global recession fails to bottom out over the next 12 months. The worst-case prediction sees a decline of 7 percent per year.

The researchers attribute the sag in top-line entertainment service revenues to lower discretionary spending on services and handsets, less funding available for financing new application development and faster migration to ad-funded services.

“Some entertainment services appear to be highly susceptible to the downturn. Furthermore, given that operators will perceive that consumers will be increasingly reluctant — or unable — to purchase content, they may, in turn, be less likely to roll out expensive, higher-risk services: a dedicated mobile broadcast TV network is a prime example,” said Windsor Holden, the report’s author.

The report finds that:

  • Adult services and gambling will suffer least, and mobile gambling may actually benefit from migration of wagers from physical to remote sites as consumers go out less and bet via mobile or PC.
  • Mobile music will remain the largest single mobile entertainment sector, despite the continuing decline in revenues from ringtones.
  • Growth in service deployment and adoption will be further constrained by the excessive cost of data services across many markets.

You can download the “Mobile Entertainment in a Recession: Scenarios, Markets & Forecasts 2009-2013” from www.juniperresearch.com.