2009 will be the most difficult year to date for the TV industry and the television supply chain, according to display market researcher DisplaySearch.
With the economy hitting the brakes, year-over-year (Y/Y) LCD TV revenues are expected to fall in 2009 for the first time since LCD TVs hit the market in 2000, according to newly revised figures for DisplaySearch.
The revenue decline can be attributed to two main causes: reductions in the expected prices of televisions and decreases in year-over-year shipment growth for LCD and plasma televisions next year. According to DisplaySearch, LCD TV shipments will decline 7 percent, and plasma TV shipments will fall 6 percent in 2009.
Revenues for the sale of LCD TVs are expected to fall 16 percent year over year to $64 billion next year, and total TV revenues are forecasted to decline 18 percent Y/Y to $88 billion. The revised figures are reflected in DisplaySearch’s Q4 ’08 “Quarterly Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report.”
The LCD TV market is expected to reach 102.2 million units in 2008, which would be 29 percent Y/Y growth; this is a reduction of 3.6 million from the Q3 ’08 forecast for 2008. In 2009, the LCD TV market is forecast to reach 119.9 million units, for 17 percent Y/Y growth; this has been reduced by 11.5 million units from the Q3’08 forecast for 2009.
Unit growth in developed regions such as Japan, North America and Western Europe will be just 2 percent Y/Y, largely due to the impact of the economic crisis. DisplaySearch forecasts that LCD TV growth in emerging regions will be 45 percent Y/Y in 2009, lower than the 68 percent Y/Y growth in 2008. As CRT TV penetration in these emerging regions is 60 percent to 70 percent, the shift to flat-panel display TV continues to be driven by price reductions.
Plasma TVs are expected to grow 24 percent Y/Y to 13.9 million in 2008, largely unchanged from the Q3 ’08 forecast for 2008. This segment is expected to grow 5 percent Y/Y in 2009 to 14.6 million units, reduced by 5 percent from the Q3 ’08 forecast for 2009. This is primarily due to the rapid decline in prices of 32in LCD TVs. Another factor is the smaller number of plasma display panel players in the market as a result of aggressive pricing from the top plasma TV brands.
For more information, visit www.displaysearch.com.
