REDWOOD CITY, Calif.—A new report from Dell’Oro Group provides mixed news for equipment manufacturers with a forecast that sees telecom capital expenditures declining by 2% in 2026 while increasing by a 1% cumulative average growth rate through 2030.
“We’re seeing an interesting dynamic between long-term optimism and near-term visibility, “said Stefan Pongratz, vice president at Dell’Oro Group.
“Operators remain optimistic about the long-term network vision, particularly as AI drives new demand, but in the short term they are taking a more cautious stance, with many planning to moderate capex,” Pongratz added.
The report found that worldwide telecom investments were stable in 2025 with telecom capex for the approximately 50 service providers covered in the Telecom Capex Report—representing roughly 80 percent of global capex—was flat in nominal US dollar (USD) terms.
The researchers indicated that the relationship between capex and telecom equipment revenue across the six programs tracked by Dell’Oro Group—Broadband Access, Microwave & Optical Transport, Mobile Core Network (MCN), Radio Access Network (RAN), and Service Provider Router & Switch—remained stable.
As previously reported, equipment manufacturer revenue increased 4 percent year-over-year in 2025. The slightly stronger equipment vs. capex growth can, to some degree, be explained by the boost from the cloud providers. We estimate they accounted for around half of the growth in equipment revenue.
Additional highlights from the March 2026 Telecom Capex report:
- Worldwide telecom capex is projected to decline 2 percent in 2026 and grow at a 1 percent CAGR through 2030.
- With carrier revenues on track to increase modestly (~2 percent CAGR), the capex-to-revenue ratio is projected to approach 14 percent by 2029.
- Wireless capital intensity is projected to approach 11 percent in 2029, down seven percentage points from the 5G peak.
