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SNL Kagan forecasts U.S. mobile users to surge past 100 percent by 2013

A recent study from SNL Kagan estimates that 84 percent of the U.S. population will have mobile phones by the end of 2007, with this figure moving past the 100 percent mark by 2013.

Other findings indicate that during the next decade, U.S. cell phone subscriptions will grow at a rate of about 3 percent per year. According to SNL Kagan, these projections take into account the potential for consumers’ increased use of mobile phones for text, Web and video services, which could be accelerated by new player business models where multimedia services get partially subsidized by advertising, similar to the approaches just starting to be tested by Google, YouTube and others.

Among other highlights of the study:

  • The total industry average revenue per user (ARPU) is expected to grow at an inflation-paced compound annual growth rate of 1.5 percent during the next 10 years, from $52.38 today to $61.09 by 2017.
  • Data ARPU, which is already in the high digits, grew 45 percent from the first quarter of 2006 to the first quarter of 2007, from $5.92 to $8.58.
  • Data is expected to rise to 22 percent of service revenue during the next 10 years, compared to less than 10 percent of revenues today.

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