Kagan Expects HDTV Sales to Rebound

Revenues won’t rise as consumers go on the cheap, however
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MONTEREY, CALIF.: The market for high-def TVs is expected to pick up in the second half of 2009 and maintain momentum into 2010, according to updated projections from SNL Kagan. The company expects 2009 HDTV sales will reach 29 million units, up from an estimated 26.2 million in 2008. People waiting to buy at falling prices will be the driving force.

That desire to pay less for a higher-end TV will reduce profit margins for manufacturers and retailers, Kagan said. HDTV retail revenues for 2009 are expected to reach $25.5 billion, down from the 2008 total of $28.4 billion.

The percentage of HDTV households will reach 71 percent--roughly 82.3 million homes--in 2009, up from 16 percent in 2005, as more primary analog or standard digital sets are replaced in the home, Kagan said.

“As average HDTV set prices continue to fall to the $600 to 700 range by 2010-11, we should see mass adoption begin to take hold, with over 80 to 90 percent penetration of TV households,” said SNL Kagan analyst Justin Nielson. “Looking past 2012, we project almost all TV households will have at least one HDTV. However, retail market revenues will flatten at $24 billion due to market saturation as all displays sold at the retail level will be high definition by 2017 and the average retail price drops to about $500.”

More on HDTVs:
September 30, 2009:TVB Tech Alert: Westinghouse 42-inch, 120Hz LCD HDTV for $750”
Prices were primo for high-end HDTV sets just a year ago. Now, Westinghouse has rolled out a 42-inch hi-def LCD, 1080p set for less than a grand. A lot less, in fact. The TX-42F970Z is shipping to sell at around $750.

September 22, 2009: “California Seeks to Limit TV Energy Consumption”
People watching more TV on bigger screens is sucking down too much power, California’s state’s energy regulator reckons. TVs and their various peripherals consume around 10 percent of the residential electricity in the state, according to the California Energy Commission.

May 7, 2009: “HDTV Set Sales Fall With Rising Prices”
HDTV set sales are falling off as prices rise, according to Retrevo, a Web-based operation that tracks consumer electronics trends. The Retrevo folks say that HDTV set prices have increased as much as 30 percent since mid-January, and during the same period, demand has decreased “while other electronics product categories remained flat or increased slightly.”