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BIA Kelsey—Local U.S. Media Ad Revenue Growth Predicted Through 2017

CHANTILLY, VA. — BIA/Kelsey predicts total U.S. local media ad revenues will grow from $132.9 billion in 2013 to $151.5 billion in 2017, an 2.8 percent compound annual growth rate, faster than the firm originally forecast earlier this year. Local TV stations will rake in around $22.1 billion or 14.6 percent of the 2017 total, the market researcher said.

Digital will drive growth. Online and digital advertising is expected to grow at a 13.8 percent CAGR from $26.5 billion in 2013 to $44.5 billion in 2017. That compares with a CAGR of 0.1 percent during the same period for traditional advertising revenues, which will remain flat, growing slightly from $106.4 billion in 2013 to $107 billion in 2017.

“A range of factors will drive local ad revenues higher in 2014 and through the end of the forecast period,” said Mark Fratrik, chief economist at BIA/Kelsey. “A slightly improving U.S. economy, positive outlook by investors, the 2014 elections and Olympics, as well as ad spending around the Affordable Health Care Act, which comes out of the local ad pie, will all contribute to increased local ad spending.”

Location-targeted mobile advertising revenues, which are growing at a faster pace than overall mobile advertising, will increase from $2.9 billion in 2013 to $10.8 billion in 2017, accounting for 52 percent of overall U.S. mobile ad spending in 2017, the researchers said. Total mobile ad spending will grow from $7 billion in 2013 to $20.7 billion in 2017.

For the first time, the mid-year update to BIA/Kelsey’s Annual U.S. Local Media Forecast breaks out the share of ad revenues attributed to print and over-the-air TV versus online/digital for Yellow Pages, newspapers, television and radio. The following represent individual media segment shares of the overall local media market by 2017 and how those shares have moved from their 2013 position:

  • Newspapers Print: decreasing to 9.1 percent in 2017
  • Newspapers Online/Digital: remaining steady at 2.4 percent in 2017
  • Yellow Pages Print: decreasing to 1.5 percent in 2017
  • Yellow Pages Digital/Online: increasing to 1.9 percent in 2017
  • Radio O-T-A: decreasing slightly to 10.6 percent in 2017
  • Radio Online/Digital: growing to 0.5 percent in 2017
  • TV O-T-A: decreasing slightly to 14.6 percent in 2017
  • TV Online/Digital: growing to 0.7 percent in 2017