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SNL Kagan Forecasts Nearly $21 Billion for TV Stations in 2010

MONTEREY, CALIF.: SNL Kagan foresees TV station revenues reaching nearly $21 billion this year, with $19.8 billion from advertising. The media analysts at Kagan revised their original 2010 forecast, released last August, which said ad revenues would reach $18.5 billion. The 2010 recovery follows a year in which TV station ad revenues fell 17 percent, after having dropped 2.5 percent in 2008.

“While the massive declines experienced by both industries [TV and radio broadcasting] in 2009 create a favorable year-over-year comparison, increased spending on political and auto advertising, tighter inventory and growing rates are also expected to drive revenues,” Kagan said.

The firm’s researchers say TV station advertising revenue--including online but excluding retransmission--will reach $19.8 billion this year, up from $17.3 billion in 2009, when industry ad revenue hit the lowest level since 1995. Total TV station revenue, including retransmission fees, is expected to reach $20.9 billion in 2010. Kagan also issued a five-year projection of $25.4 billion for 2016.

-- Deborah D. McAdams
(Image by Calamity Meg)

September 11, 2009: “TV Ad Bureau Predicts Spot Revenue Rise in 2010”
The TVB forecasted that total spot revenues would rise between 3.6 and 6.1 percent compared to this year. National spot revenues are expected to increase by 6 to 12 percent.

August 24, 2009: “SNL Kagan Projects TV Station Revenue Growth”
Retransmission consent revenues reached $500.1 million in 2008, Kagan said, and are projected to grow to $738.7 million in 2009, crossing the billion-dollar threshold by 2011. SNL Kagan also estimated that online revenues generated by TV station operators will surpass $1 billion by 2012.