Analyst Lowers LCD Forecast ‘Dramatically’

LCD TV panel shipments were 8 million in November—down 16 percent from November a year ago.

DisplaySearch, a consultancy, said it has “dramatically revised” its TV market forecast for 2009—saying that the year-long economy is not likely to give the LCD industry any type of significant boost. In fact, the Austin, Texas-based analyst is forecasting falling revenues for LCD makers for the first time since it began keeping annual and quarterly records nearly nine years ago.

This week, the analyst reported LCD TV panel shipments were 8 million in November—down 16 percent compared to November a year ago. Those are the worst monthly numbers since September 2007.

Overall, according to its reconfigured data, worldwide revenues are expected to fall (year to-year) by a whopping 16 percent, to $64 billion, in 2009. Total TV revenues will fall about 18 percent ($88 billion). DisplaySearch has labeled 2009 as “the most difficult year yet for the TV industry and supply chain.”

For 2008, the LCD TV market is expected to reach more than 102 million units, representing nearly 30 percent annual growth. But that revised figure is about 3.6 million units fewer than previous forecasts for the current year.

In 2009, the LCD market is predicted to climb to about 120 million units, indicating a 17 percent jump. But DisplaySearch’s original forecast had called for closer to 131.5 million units.

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