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New IDATE report assesses future of live, on-demand TV

The global TV industry has reached a tipping point in its evolution that will witness changes in viewer behaviors and the appearance of new business models as the distribution of TV content continues to change, according to a new report from IDATE.

The report, “World TV & New Video Services Markets,” lays out different scenarios for the future of the industry. Its business-as-usual scenario predicts live viewing will be overtaken partially by on-demand viewing. Additionally, piracy will create obstacles for the transition from viewing content playing back from physical media to online streaming. The report also forecasts under this scenario that increased competition in the pay TV market will impact pricing and that ad rates for live TV will fall while growing for video on demand.

The report says that if the future follows the business-as-usual path, the video market on fixed and mobile networks worldwide will grow by an average of 3.2 percent per year from 2013 to 2025. That figure includes average growth of 2 percent for live TV and 14 percent annual growth for on-demand service.

Growth in developed markets will be much lower, the report says. For example, Europe’s top five markets (EU-5) — Germany, France, the U.K., Italy and Spain — will see annual growth at 1.6 percent from 2013 to 2025, with the live TV market — including broadcasters’ catch-up TV services — declining 0.7 percent. On-demand services, however, will experience an average annual increase of 18.5 percent.

The other scenarios portrayed in the report include “the music industry syndrome” and “the best of both worlds.” Under the former scenario, video services exist in a disruptive environment that will see an annual shrinking of 0.8 percent in the EU-5 nations. Further, the decline will not be offset by on-demand services, which will fall by 4 percent annually.

The latter scenario predicts an average annual growth of 3.9 percent, including 2 percent growth for live broadcasting services.