$8 Billion: 2012 Political Advertising Forecast II

NEW YORK: The political ad landscape is getting bigger by the day. Analysts at Needham & Co. predict an $8 billion year, up 40 percent from the 2010 presidential election year. The folks at Wells Fargo recently went with a more modest forecast of $4.9 billion in political ad spending for 2012. (See “2012 Political Advertising Forecast: $4.9 Billion.”)

Needham’s Laura Martin and Daniel Medina peg the political windfall for TV at $5 billion, up from $2.8 billion in 2008. Wells Fargo’s team comes in at $2.8 billion for 2012, which they said was a 27 percent increase from 2008, suggesting the two teams are using different metrics.

“We expect political advertisers to use social media and broadband video ads to compliment heavy traditional television advertising,” the Needham team said. “Whatever is perceived to work for the politicians will be mirrored by industry after the elections, we believe.”
~Deborah D. McAdams