OTT likely to help broadcasters more than pure plays, predicts Deloitte

Deloitte is out with its top technology predictions for 2013, and OTT video and related issues play a prominent role on the list.

The predictions are part of the “Technology, Media and Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions 2013” report released Jan. 15.

Key OTT-related predictions include:

  • Think “cord nevers,” not cord cutters. More than 99 percent of North Americans will continue their pay-TV subscriptions, but a growing number of young people will likely not subscribe. When they move out on their own, they will become the first generation of "cord nevers."
  • Over-the-top may help legacy broadcasters more than pure plays. Two of the top three OTT TV and movie services are likely to be provided by existing broadcasters or distributors.
  • Media tablets drive mobile advertising, but the influence of smartphones on ads lags. The category of "mobile" advertising, which includes tablets, smartphones and feature phones, should grow by 50 percent to reach $9 billion globally.
  • In 2013, tens of millions of connected TV sets will sell globally, and the installed base of TV sets with integrated connectivity should exceed 100 million.
  • 2013 will be a strong year for Long-Term Evolution (LTE) adoption. More than 200 operators in 75 countries will have launched an LTE network by the end of 2013. By year-end LTE subscriptions should exceed 200 million, a 17-fold increase in just two years
  • The looming spectrum shortage will get worse before it gets better. The demand for wireless bandwidth continues to grow — causing increased spectrum exhaustion and leading mainly to slower speeds, but sometimes an inability to access networks or dropped calls or data sessions.

The report also predicts:

  • The kickoff of 4K. The next generation of HDTV sets, 4K, offering four times higher resolution than the current highest HDTV. But there will be no 4K broadcasts in 2013, so consumers will not have much to watch.
  • Smartphones ship a billion, but usage becomes simpler.Global shipments of smartphones, defined as any device perceived by consumers as being a smartphone, will likely exceed 1 billion units for the first time. The installed base of all smartphones, per this definition, is likely to be close to 2 billion devices by year-end.