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DisplaySearch lowers forecast for 2011 global TV shipments

DisplaySearch has reduced its outlook for total global TV shipments this year by about 3 percent to 252 million units as demand continues to be soft in many developed countries.

According to DisplaySearch’s latest “Quarterly Advanced Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report,” TV shipments in North America are expected to grow about 2 percent this year after experiencing 4 percent growth in 2010. In Western European, TV shipments are forecasted to decline 1.5 percent.

Japan will see a decline this year of more than 40 percent this year due to the end of a government incentive program that spurred exceptional growth for the past two years. DisplaySearch noted that demand leading up to the July 24 analog broadcast shutoff has been better than expected, so the decline for the year may end up being slightly lower.

North America, Europe and Japan have witnessed many consumers trading up from CRT sets to flat-panel TVs over the past few years, which has led DisplaySearch to anticipate slower growth in these developed markets this year, said DisplaySearch director of North America TV Research Paul Gagnon.

However, demand in emerging markets like China, Latin America and India is seeing continued strong growth, which will offset slowing demand in developed countries, he added.

The rate of compound annual growth for TV shipments in emerging regions is expected to be 6 percent from 2011 through 2015, but only 0.3 percent in developed regions. China will become the world’s largest flat-panel TV market in 2011, overtaking North America and Europe with more than 46 million units shipped, and will hold that position throughout the forecast.

LCD TVs have captured 84 percent of the market. While shipments of LCD TVs will grow from 192 million to 210 million, the increase is lower than the 217 million originally forecasted for the year, a key reason for overall shipments being reduced for the year.

DisplaySearch has not significantly changed its forecast for worldwide 3-D TV shipments, which are expected to account for about 20 million units in 2011, rising to more than 100 million shipped by 2015.