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BIA Expects Broadcast Income to Reach $17 Billion

CHANTILLY, VA.: BIA/Kelsey predicts this year will see a 7.5 percent increase for broadcast TV station income over last year. The consulting firm said aggregate income in the sector will likely total $17 billion in 2010, compared with last year’s $15.8 billion.

BIA/Kelsey’s latest Television Market Report says television revenues in 10 states will increase nearly 8 percent or more due to hotly contested political races. Among those states: Arkansas (8.5 percent), Pennsylvania (8.5 percent), Texas (8.48 percent), Ohio (8.48 percent), and Colorado (8.43 percent).

“We feel the industry is taking a positive turn and should now focus squarely on improving its revenues by identifying sources of income from multi-casting, online and mobile,” said Mark Fratrik, Ph.D., vice president of BIA/Kelsey. “Broadcasters should be expanding their businesses into related areas where they'll find their audiences and be able to give advertisers greater reach.”

(The chart at left shows television station revenues from 2004-2009 and BIA/Kelsey's projections through 2014.)

The broadcast upfronts are expected to generated $8.26 billion, according to estimates from Barclays Capital. The figure is a 20 percent increase over last year, when upfront spending plunged $3.5 billion. The upfront sellout is expected to be 77 percent versus 70 percent last year for ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox.

The rebound of the auto industry was cited as a driver, both of more sales and higher costs per thousand. Wire reports indicated CPMs for this upfront season could rise by a high single-digit percentage.

The Big Four broadcast networks likely will give their upfront presentations next month in New York, selling time in shows for the upcoming fall season.
-- Deborah D. McAdams