Looking ahead in the CE business can be tricky these days, but the Consumer Electronics Association's "2013 Industry Forecast" predicts that even with the ongoing shift to more expensive flat-panel displays and larger screen sizes (compared to the analog world of a few years ago), revenue for total American factory sales is expected to decline noticeably in the next three years. (Sales of cathode ray and rear-projection sets will disappear altogether by 2013.)
While continually lower price points will result in HD flat-panel unit sales climbing by as much as one-third between now and 2013, revenue will decline by 10 percent as the average selling price drops by one-third. CEA, the chief lobbyist for the CE industry, projects unit sales of emerging OLED TV and PC displays will grow from last year's 45,000 units to about 2.4 million units in 2013.
Here in 2009, total CE factory sales in the United States are expected to decline 6 percent by year's end (based on $178.6 billion in 2008), although CEA expects a modest increase (0.7%) in 2010.
CEA attributes much of the declining revenue it forecasts for America to reductions in average selling price (ASP). For example, the CEA study points out a 42-inch Hitachi plasma HD was advertised by Sears at $4,500 in July 2004. Current pricing on Sears.com for a comparable Hitachi PDP five years later is now about $900.
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