ARLINGTON, Va.—The Consumer Technology Association has released retail sales revenue projections for the tech industry in 2021. How will the TV market follow the record-setting 2020?

As detailed in its twice-yearly “U.S. Consumer Technology One-Year Industry Forecast,” CTA expects the demand for TVs—which saw a record number of TV shipments—to remain high heading into 2021. While TV shipments are expected to drop by 8%, per CTA estimates, that would still come to about 43 million units, which would be the second-highest volume on record; revenues, meanwhile, would decline just 1% to $22 billion.

Some areas of growth for TV in 2021 are likely to include sets over 70 inches (3.3 million units, up 6%) and 8K UHD TVs (1.7 million units, up 300%), according to CTA.

Related to the TV market, streaming and software spending is projected to continue its meteoric rise. After growing 31% in 2020 over 2019, a record $112 billion is expected to be spent on streaming and software (11% growth).

Overall, the technology industry is projected to reach $461 billion in 2021, which would represent a 4.3% increase year-over-year.

“Tech demand in the first several months of 2021 will look a lot like the last few months of 2020,” said Rick Kowalski, director of industry analysis and business intelligence, CTA. “Streaming services, 5G connectivity and digital health devices will push consumer tech forward in the year ahead as innovative technologies prove their resilience during challenging times. The industry’s ability to meet societal needs in a variety of circumstances will bring growth in 2021 as the world emerges from the pandemic.”

For more information, visit www.CTA.tech/forecasts.  

LONDON—With the impact that coronavirus is having around the world, Omdia is adjusting its global television shipment projections for 2020, estimating a nearly 10% downturn.

After 222.9 million TV shipments in 2019, Omdia now projects that number to be around 203.5 million in 2020, a 8.7% decrease. The original projections for 2020 was for an increase of 1.1% to 225.4 million units. So, all told, the coronavirus is causing a 9.8% downswing in Omdia’s projections.

“Just one month ago, things were looking up for TV sales, with 2019 having ended on a hopeful note and all indications pointing to mild television shipment growth in 2020,” said Paul Gray, research director, consumer devices, for Omdia. “However, that hope has completely evaporated during the past month as concerns about supply interruptions have been eclipsed by rising industry anxiety over a coronavirus-driven demand crash.”

Omdia says that this swing is a result of the global restriction of individual movements and the impact that has on their consumer habits. In addition, the suspension of the international sports calendar, including 2020 UEFA and the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, has also put promotional parts of the industry on hold.

Seeing 10% swings in a region is not uncommon, Omdia, says, but it is unprecedented to see such declines everywhere simultaneously. “This phenomenon has never been seen in the history of the TV market,” Gray commented.

The second quarter is expected to see the biggest drop—16% compared to Q2 2019. China is expected to start its recovery in Q2, but Europe and North America markets are estimated to fall more than 40%; declines in other regions are expected to be smaller as they put in measures thanks to advance warning.

Even though the market is currently on the decline, TV shipments are only loosely connected to overall economic performance, according to Omdia.

“Development markets shrugged off the 2008-2009 recession and television sales still grew solidly,” said Gray. “This is largely because television remains good value entertainment—far cheaper than going out. … Omdia also expects that a flurry of rescheduled sports events in 2021 will boost television sales.”

Omdia's “TV Sets Market Track” is available online. 

HERTFORDSHIRE, England—2018 was a banner year for worldwide TV shipments, according to a market report from Futuresource Consulting, earning the highest rate of growth for the decade at 6%.

In total, 227 million TV units were shipped worldwide in 2018, equating to a trade value of $85 billion. Futuresource identified a number of factors that contributed to this surge, including the drop in prices for technologies like 4K and a rise in production in South East Asia.

“Despite some localized macro-economic problems, which have caused significant shipment fluctuations for several countries, the world view is positive,” said Futuresource Consulting Senior Market Analyst Matthew Rubin.

TV shipments in BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) have helped lay the groundwork for this growth, as many households are upgrading their primary TVs. This has helped make up for flat or declining shipment numbers in Western Europe and North America; Eastern Europe, however, saw a 6% increase. While North America was essentially flat (a decrease of 0.1% in units shipped) it still saw shipments of more than 42 million units, which is close to its peak of 2011.

4K UHD TV shipments are expected to command more than half the market in 2019 as there is increasing standardization in TV sets 40-inches and above. Futuresource forecasts that the global installed base for 4K UHD TVs will exceed 960 million by the end of 2023.

Meanwhile, the next bump in resolution, 8K, is just about ready to start taking off. Shipments for 8K sets are expected to be just 0.1% of the market in 2019, but likely to see a growth to 2% by 2023. While Samsung and Sharp have been the major proponents for 8K models, most brands are likely to soon offer an 8K set of their own, while 8K content availability is also expected to make progress, though still with a ways to go.

“Barriers to uptake will begin to fall away and 8K will grow to form a significant part of the premium market by 2023,” Rubin said.