A little over 10 years ago, Netflix launched its streaming service, effectively heralding the dawn of over the top services. A decade later, OTT is closer to becoming ubiquitous amid predictions that it will eventually overtake cable and satellite as the dominant source of video news and entertainment. The march towards an all-OTT future, however is not without a few bumps.

Perhaps the most popular quality that characterizes OTT is the explosion of content choices now available on a plethora of devices. But with the increased choice comes some risks. These issues were outlined in several recent reports assessing the current state of OTT.

In its “State of the Broadcast Industry 2018” report, media software provider Ooyala examines how streaming services have affected viewer behavior and where broadcasters fit into this expanding universe. The report, which uses Ooyala’s own data and analysis as well as research conducted by other organizations, concludes that technical issues such as buffering times combined with what some consider “too many” choices will drive important changes in the coming year.

Viewers voice their technical concerns in IBM Cloud Video’s “The State of Streaming” report.

The report notes that Ericsson predicts that by 2022, mobile video viewing will account for 75 percent of mobile data traffic. Ooyala also noted that by 2020, OTT viewing will surpass traditional broadcast TV viewing, according to a recent report from Unisphere.

In its report “The State of Streaming,” IBM Cloud Video surveyed more than 1,000 U.S. consumers and found that technical issues were among the most common complaints among subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) subscribers, with 75 percent of respondents experiencing buffering or delayed starts in 2016, with that figure rising to 81 percent in 2017. One contributing factor cited in this issue is sudden spikes in viewership, e.g., when Netflix releases the latest season of “Stranger Things” on a given date and time. Such spikes can also affect video quality and lead to audio-syncing issues as well.

“Streaming services need to be ready to host the millions of viewers who tune in at the same time,” the report’s authors noted. “Streaming services need to leverage technology that supports streaming and on-demand distribution across various platforms at top speeds. Without a scalable architecture that can handle massive spikes and facilitate processing and delivery, streaming services will not be able to accommodate increased demand,” resulting in lost subscribers, the report concludes.

How do broadcasters fit into the OTT environment? We already have the advantage when it comes to having the capacity to handle popular live events, but as compression and bandwidth availability continues to improve, OTT could eventually match it. The unknown variable in all of this is the fate of net neutrality, which, although repealed by the FCC late last year, is being challenged in courts and Congress. These developments are forcing us to re-assess our role in today’s media landscape, where OTT’s strengths in personalizing viewing choices are challenging broadcast’s expertise in delivering the live mass viewing experience.

Nevertheless, with the approvals in 2017 of the SMPTE-2110 video transport and the ATSC 3.0 hybrid IP-broadcast standards and the increased adoption of the cloud for production and distribution, our industry is better prepared than it was just 12 months ago. Whether it’s enough to survive in an OTT future is up for debate.

Nov. 16, 2017 could go down in the annals of the U.S. television broadcast history as a fateful day for our industry. Whether that fate leads to a reinvigoration or the death knell of broadcasting is up to us. With the official approval of ATSC 3.0 aka Next Gen TV, we enter a new era.

To paraphrase the late Tom Petty, the waiting isn’t the hardest part of this transition. Rather it was the development of the standard over the past five years that required the dedication of hundreds of engineers to create the most advanced broadcast standard in the world. But one could also surmise that the hardest part is upon us now—marketing a new technology to a public barely aware of its existence or its potential.

At the 2017 CES, LG introduced new TV sets with dual ATSC 1.0/3.0 tuners for the South Korean market. Will we see them for the U.S. market at the 2018 show next month?

Whatever you think of how the move to DTV was conducted, there was at least an acknowledgement that a government-backed transition was essential to maintaining a system that provided free access to news and information, especially during times of crisis. The ability of broadcast to operate and provide widespread information to the public during emergencies when cellular networks can break down provides an advantage that no other current communications technology can match.

Next Gen TV enters a market saturated by a plethora of media choices, some of which were still on the drawing board when development of the standard began half a decade ago. During the move to digital, broadcasters were required to publicize the transition to the public and had the backing of mandates. Now, apart from certain public service obligations and rules that require duplication of programming and information to maintain a basic service on ATSC 1.0, our industry has a lot more freedom to chart its own course.

After the FCC vote last month, the various groups involved in the development of the standard issued their usual congratulatory comments, but one statement stood out among the others as a precursor to how we could see this transition unfold. LG Electronics, one of the key players in developing the standard, said, “When there is a critical mass of ATSC 3.0 commercial broadcasting in the United States, we will be there.” Likewise, Samsung, which was also involved in the standards process, told TV Technology that “Samsung engineers played a leading role in the development of the standard, and we are well-positioned to implement it in cutting-edge consumer devices as the market develops.”

While it’s no surprise that these consumer electronics giants would take a cautionary approach towards developing ATSC 3.0-compatible devices in the near future, LG’s “critical mass” comment should serve as a warning to broadcasters that the burden is on us to provide the market for ATSC 3.0 and that the technology will have to stand on its merits alone and not rely on government mandates. At this stage “if you build it, they will come” applies more to the consumer electronics manufacturers than it does to consumers.

Will next month’s CES provide any clues on the availability of Next Gen TV devices? Most likely not; as Gary Arlen reports in his show preview, there will be plenty of “meetings” but don’t expect to see much in the way of marketable devices yet. And that makes sense; the future of ATSC 3.0 won’t rely on dedicated hardware products but rather the integration of the service into existing platforms. Despite its promise of higher resolutions and improved audio, the traditional living room television set will not necessarily play a key role in the success of ATSC 3.0.

What will play a key role is local broadcasters who will have to make the decision on whether to get onboard now or wait for the market to develop. Publicizing the potential of ATSC 3.0 will be crucial and it was somewhat disappointing that, at least in Washington, the local television stations decided that the vote for a new standard was not important enough to mention on the evening news.

While FCC Chairman Ajit Pai touted the vote as “historic,” it’s important not to forget the warnings from the dissenting commissioners. Concerns over privacy and a lack of backward compatibility that could require consumers to purchase new TV sets are legitimate and deserve careful consideration. It’s up to us to prove that such concerns will be addressed and resolved over the course of this transition.

In a final note, I would be remiss without acknowledging the individuals who helped lead this massive technological undertaking. There are far too many to mention here but it must be noted that Mark Richer, president of the ATSC and Dr. Richard Chernock, who lead the Technology and Standards Group played critical roles in managing the process and ensuring that deadlines were met. Congratulations to them, the ATSC staff and members and hundreds more involved.

For a comprehensive list of TV Technology’s ATSC 3.0 coverage, see our ATSC3 silo.

Gregarious… intelligent… passionate… selfless. These words only begin to describe Adrian Scott, an industry friend and colleague who passed away last week. I had the pleasure of getting to know Adrian when I started out covering the broadcast industry almost 20 years ago. As a neophyte, I was often intimidated by tech experts in our industry but Adrian always put me at ease and was very eager to help out whenever I had a question. People were naturally drawn to him by his warmth and wicked sense of humor.

Adrian attended the University of North Carolina on a scholarship as an undergrad, so although his homeland was the U.K., he shared many unique American experiences. This included his love for UNC sports, especially basketball, staying up late at night to watch his beloved Tar Heels all during the NCAA season and especially during March Madness. It was also at UNC that be was bitten with the “broadcast bug.”

Adrian’s impact on the broadcast industry was well-known. He developed the early newsroom computer systems and at Avid was instrumental in developing nonlinear editing systems for news and for creating the first media asset management systems in our industry. He was also a founder and European chair of the Global Society for Asset Management (G-SAM). He also helped guide several well-known U.K.-based broadcast vendors through transitional years and for the past 15 years, had been a well-regarded and respected advisor to the IBC.

I always looked forward to catching up with Adrian at industry events. When he suffered a stroke in 2009, he had to cut back on his travels, but I was fortunate to run into him at IBC several years ago and it was evident that that infectious laugh and self-effacing demeanor were still intact. 

Several years ago, Adrian was bestowed with a well-deserved Lifetime Achievement Award from our sister publication TVB Europe. Although he was honored for his achievements in broadcast technology, I can’t help think that it was also in recognition of his character and dedication to sharing his passion for our industry. Adrian was an industry icon and pioneer, but to so many of us he was first and foremost, a friend.

The nation’s radio and TV broadcasters in September, participated in the second national emergency alert system test initiated by FEMA; by most reports, the second goround went far more smoothly than the first. While there were a few mishaps, the software and FCC reporting system worked well for the vast majority of stations.

Despite the plethora of information sources available to consumers today, the broadcast emergency alert system still provides the most important central conduit of critical information in times of crisis. Time after time, during even the most recent weather emergencies, the vast majority of citizens still turn to their local broadcasters for information that can save lives. This is not to say that federal, state and local agencies are not using social media outlets such as Twitter and Facebook to disseminate news and information; the fact is, they are. However, broadcast still remains the most reliable source, especially in light of the DYN DDOS attack that occurred last month that resulted in the shutdown of hundreds of websites and services, including prominent sites such as CNN and Twitter.

While the threat of cyberattacks has been a prominent item of debate for several years now, this attack represented the largest of its kind in history and some term it as a “dress rehearsal,” illustrating just what could be in store in the future. Cybersecurity is one of the most discussed topics of concerns among broadcasters, whether it’s the threat of piracy, blackmail or other nefarious intentions. However, EAS represents, perhaps, the most important concern for the simple fact that lives and property are at stake.

The FCC has been laying the groundwork for establishing security standards and protocol for the nation’s critical communications infrastructure for several years now and has established the Communications Security, Reliability and Interoperability Council, which is now in its fifth incarnation. I recently spoke with Kelly Williams, senior director of engineering and technology policy, who represents NAB on the council and has taken the lead on cybersecurity for EAS at the association.

Williams has been working with industry colleagues, including Chris Homer, vice president of operations and engineering at PBS to “translate” an approach from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) to take its framework of checklists to conduct a risk assessment for the TV and radio broadcast plant.

“Essentially it says, ‘Go through and look at your network—in our case your plant— and decide which of these things is most vulnerable,’” he said. “Make some decisions on your risk tolerance and what you’re going to do about those risks.”

Williams has been talking to broadcasters around the country and conducting webinars through NAB’s Pilot arm to learn more about how local broadcasters are securing their EAS systems. Many of the mistakes are basic common errors that can be easily addressed.

“A large amount of cyber breaches are based on really common, basic things, such as having a password that is the admin’s first and last name,” Williams said, adding that when you receive a new piece of equipment, change the password to something other than “admin” or the station’s call letters. “You go a long way just by doing good hygiene,” he said.

Since almost everything in the broadcast plant now runs on computers, the software running on those computers is the most vulnerable element for attack. Most broadcasters are keenly aware that the broadcast IT and business IT systems within a broadcast station should be silo-ed and separated; however communications between broadcast engineers and IT departments must be improved to keep an open line of communication.

“Most of the broadcast engineering and technology guys know about the website people, it’s just the website people have no clue what’s going on on the broadcast side of the house,” Williams said. “They’re equally as vulnerable.”

While consolidation has helped standardize security protocols, awareness still need to be stressed across the board, from the receptionist to the CEO, especially when it comes to email. “Don’t click on cute kittens,” Williams joked.

Cybersecurity, especially for the nation’s critical communications infrastructure is no laughing matter, however. Williams stressed that hacks are not a matter of if but when. And don’t think that just because you’re a small station in a rural area, that you’re not a target.

“This is not the kind of thing that you think, ‘Oh, I’ll be lucky, nobody wants to hack me because I’m just an insignificant little TV station,’ that is just so not true,” Williams said. “It’s absolutely going to happen.”

For more on NAB’s cybersecurity initiatives, visit: http://nabpilot.org/author/kellywilliamsnab/.

The transition to IP-based media production and transport in our industry is the most transformative development since the move to digital. Internet protocol will lay the foundation for a revolutionary process that will enable faster, more flexible production and a much wider and more diverse array of services and programming.

But in the fast pace world of high-tech, the transition for IP-based video transport within the broadcast community has been slow and, for better or worse, some vendors are moving forward with their own networking protocols. Our industry looks to SMPTE (and related groups, such as AES and VSF) for the standards to guide this transition forward, and while the group is making great progress towards a standard, organizations such as the Alliance for IP Media Solutions (AIMS) are helping to corral manufacturers, media companies and the various alphabet soup of standards bodies towards a future where interoperability will break down the proprietary barriers that have characterized so much of our industry’s history. Less than a year old, AIMS has already attracted more than 50 members, including its founding members Imagine Communications and Grass Valley. (Check out our story, “The Ground Level View of IP-Based Media Transport”)

At the 2016 IBC Show, we saw the latest developments in these efforts with the IBC IP Interoperability Zone, sponsored by AIMS and the IABM and showcasing the work of the JT-NM (the Joint Task Force on Networked Media, a combined initiative of AMWA, EBU, SMPTE and VSF), and the AES on a common roadmap for IP interoperability. The zone included a live production studio, based on the technologies of the JT-NM roadmap that Belgian broadcaster VRT has been using daily on-air since last summer as part of the LiveIP project, a collaboration between VRT, the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) and LiveIP’s 12 technology partners.

After the show, I spoke with Mike Cronk, vice president of core technology for Grass Valley and the chairman of the board for AIMS about reaction to the zone. “People were saying, ‘wow, this stuff works,” he said. “There was the live IP demonstration people were doing real television with it. People said, ‘OK, now I see things coming together. I’m going to think more about IP.’”

Cronk said that, in addition to promoting interoperability in the IP world, the main goal for AIMS now is to support the adoption and completion of the SMPTE-2110 transport protocol which will provide the foundation for that interoperability. But he added that AIMS is also helping to fill in the some of the gaps during the standards process.

“I think AIMS has helped bring some unity,” he said. “The good people at SMPTE would’ve still been working probably on the same thing. AIMS can’t claim credit for that at all. We’re just one other piece of the puzzle.”

First off, let’s dispense with the niceties. All of this talk within the broadcast community about how consumers will react to the quality of 4K/UHD pictures is just that: talk. How we personally feel about the degree of difference in resolution and consumers’ perception of said quality won’t matter much to shoppers making a decision about whether to trade up to next-generation television. To a lot of people, UHD isn’t worth the price of the upgrade yet, but once prices come into line with those of current 1080p sets (which they are quickly doing), it will be, especially once UHD becomes the only option available. As for high dynamic range and high frame rate? Sure, they are icing on the cake (with OLED as the cherry on top), but the jury is still out on how much of an effect they will have on consumers’ choices.

Sony launched its Z-Series UHD/4K TVs in July, featuring picture enhancements such as HDR capability and new backlight technology. The big variable in the rollout of UHD is in the availability of content. Much has changed since the rollout of HDTV, the largest being the ubiquity of over-the-top alternatives to broadcast and traditional pay-TV services as well as the explosion of mobile screens. Survey after survey demonstrates that millennials are abandoning the traditional big-screen TV in favor of tablets and smartphones. So regardless of how one feels about the experience, the reality is that resolution and picture quality aren’t always the overriding factors in how one chooses to consume media.

Two recent reports shine some light on the future of UHD and reach similar conclusions about which factors will determine the format’s success: content and bandwidth availability and device capabilities. And both conclude that OTT will be the driver of the format.

In its report, “A Clearer Picture of Growth: 2016 Global 4K/UHD Industry Survey,” SNL Kagan interviewed 475 global video service providers (including pay TV/OTT operators and content producers), of which 96 percent of respondents believe that a majority of consumers and video service providers will adopt 4K/UHD by 2020, with 78 percent of total respondents expecting launches within two years. Differentiation from competition as well as the need to be “in the game” are the biggest drivers for adoption among survey respondents, who also believe that consumers will be willing to fork out an extra 10 to 30 percent on top of their current services for 4K content. Connected 4K TVs will be the primary device for viewing high-resolution content, with live sports and early release movies expected to be the most popular content for consumption. Globally, the Asia-Pacific region is expected to lead the pack in terms of early adoption, with Europe and North America close behind.

Since live sports will be a major driver of 4K adoption, concerns over bandwidth availability for 4K/UHD take on greater importance, with more than 60 percent of respondents rating the issue as potentially having a high impact. UHD is a notorious bandwidth hog and adding HFR and HDR to the picture just adds to the burden (and despite the rumors of its demise, physical media, including UHD players are expected to still be an important part of the distribution mix). Fortunately some of the concerns over bandwidth can be alleviated by advances in compression technology; according to the survey, 54 percent of video service providers say they will offer different resolutions to fit multiple devices, however only 40 percent of content producers expect to provide content at different resolutions.

Another report on the format from Juniper Research estimates that more than 189 million unique users will be using 4K OTT services globally, up from just 2.3 million this year. In its report, “Digital TV and Video: Network and OTT Strategies 2016–2021,” it predicts that in the United States, 10 percent will be watching 4K video online by 2021 compared to just one in 500 this year, with connected TVs being the dominant channel. It bases much of its optimism on the increasing availability of 4K options from the likes of Youtube, Netflix and Amazon as well as the market availability of 4K-capable OTT boxes. Juniper also predicts that 8K will become a market force by 2020, with TV shipments growing threefold between 2020 and 2021 to 400,000 per year.

So when it comes to adopting next-generation 4K/UHD media, the experts are relatively bullish, though with several caveats—all related to timing, availability and consumer preferences. Pretty much what it was like with HDTV.

INASNOW, BANK—Probably no other personal device that’s been introduced into the market over the past decade has affected our daily lives than the smartphone. Ten years ago, the idea of taking pictures (let alone video) with your phone was still a fairly new concept and hardly user-friendly. Today, nearly everyone carries an HD video camera in their pocket, and the impact has affected nearly all aspects of our

The concurrent rise of social media has had a similar impact, and video has played an important role as well. The success of apps like Periscope have given nearly anyone with a smartphone the ability to become their own private broadcaster (Facebook announced last month that it will offer the same ability for any subscriber to broadcast live video to his or her followers.) When you add in the success of Netflix and over-the-top devices such as Apple TV, it’s pretty easy to understand how video-over-IP is the future of mass—as well as personal—communications worldwide.

Recognizing and analyzing this phenomenon has been on the minds of Internet giant Cisco for years, and its most recent annual Visual Networking Index, released earlier this month, is seen by most in our industry as a reliable predictor of the future impact of mobile IP video. Its 2016 report can probably be best summed up in our headline.

“Since 2000, when the first camera phone was introduced, the number of mobile users has quintupled,” according to the report. “By 2020, there will be 5.5 billion mobile users, representing 70 percent of the global population. The adoption of mobile devices, increased mobile coverage and demand for mobile content are driving user growth two times faster than the global popular over the next five years. This surge of mobile users, smart devices, mobile video and 4G networks will increase mobile data traffic eightfold over the next five years.”

Not surprisingly, mobile video is predicted to have the highest growth rate of any mobile application. The demand for higher resolution video, more bandwidth and processing speed will spur the growth of more advanced compression standards as well as 4G networks, which will carry more than 70 percent of all mobile traffic by 2020. By then, global mobile data traffic will reach 30.6 exabytes per month, (up from 3.7 exabytes in 2015), with video consuming 75 percent of that data traffic. Obviously, this will have a huge impact on policy and innovation, and the report notes the rising importance of alternative IP transport resources such as M2M (machine-to-machine) connections and WiFi Hotspots.

Where does broadcast fit in all of this? Well one of the “alternatives” left out of the report was ATSC 3.0. We don’t have to remind you of the advantages of broadcasting one-to-many as opposed to the one-to-one nature of IP video. And how the upcoming spectrum auctions will impact the future of TV broadcasting remains to be seen. (TV Technology has never outright opposed the auctions as such, but rather has advocated that the FCC treat broadcasters fairly in the process.) In the meantime, we’ve placed our bets on the future of our industry with ATSC 3.0. Although the next-gen standard is still in development, what happens as it is rolled out over the next several years will determine our future survival.

(Image from this rather odd YouTube video with neary 5.2 million views..)

UNDER TWO FEET OF SNOW, IS WHERE—Despite the wealth of options for furthering their knowledge these days, broadcast engineers— like so many us—still highly value the experience of sharing information and networking on a personal basis. Even after sitting through the umpteenth PowerPoint presentation, our community still prefers to obtain and share its expertise through personal contact. And there’s no shortage of events to share that knowledge. From the NAB Show to IBC to SMPTE (as well as many NewBay-sponsored summits, natch), our professional development is greatly enhanced when we can meet person to person and demonstrate new products and technologies. And despite the increased options in remote learning, industry conferences are growing in popularity.

Former SMPTE President Wendy Aylsworth and SMPTE Executive Director Barbara Lange prepare for a session at the annual HPA Tech Retreat, an event with a reputation for not taking itself too seriously. The two most recent examples were last fall’s IEEE-Broadcast Technology Society and SMPTE conferences, which saw increased interest and attendance. According to Roswell Clark, director of technical operations at Cox Media Group Tampa and IEEE BTS conference co-chair, the 2015 conference in Orlando was the group’s “most successful” gathering to date.

SMPTE, as well, saw record attendance at its Annual Technical Conference & Exhibition in Hollywood last year. “In so many ways, this was a banner year for the SMPTE Annual Technical Conference & Exhibition,” said Paul Chapman, SMPTE Fellow and co-chair of the conference. “We had to add space to accommodate more than 90 exhibitors. That, coupled with the record number of attendees, indicates that the industry is on a real upswing.”

There’s one other conference that is a particular standout: the upcoming HPA Tech Retreat, scheduled for Feb. 15-19 in Indian Wells, Calif., a suburb of Palm Springs. The annual conference, which was first held in 1993, has grown in size and influence over the years and that’s perhaps why SMPTE took notice and initiated a partnership with the group last year.

The retreat, sponsored by the Hollywood Professional Association (a new name that was announced last fall) has gained a reputation for attracting some of the greatest minds in media production, hosting such notables over the years as the inventor of MP3, the head of Visual Space Perception Laboratory at the University of California- Berkeley, as well as experts in imaging from the federal government and the EBU. The networking and learning opportunities for attendees begin at sunrise and last well after sundown, with breakfast roundtables, Mark Schubin’s “Year in Review” and broadcasters panel particularly popular annual events. One might think of the event as an “intelligence boot camp” for media technology experts, but in a good way.

Schubin, who organizes the event, notes that the retreat has been the scene of numerous technology milestones over the years. Sony introduced its HDCAM SR, OLED monitors, and SR Memory at the retreat, while, Panasonic introduced its Varicam and the first 4K camera, a Lockheed Martin prototype, made its debut.

Since it’s held in February every year, the retreat, in some ways, serves as a “technology preview” of the spring NAB Show, but frankly, it doesn’t really matter when the event is held; its influence and impact on attracting the best minds and most advanced technologies are a testament to its longstanding commitment to excellence. It’s also known as the event that doesn’t take itself too seriously, with a reputation for being a bit more offbeat than similar gatherings.

This year’s event will focus on the growing importance of high dynamic range, VR, OLED and ATSC 3.0. And Schubin says he will talk about a new development with regard to frame rate. “High frame rate is an advanced TV feature,” he notes. “But people don’t see in frames. In increasing frame rate, we are trying to solve the problem of low frame rate. But what if we could produce imagery the way our eyes see it; sensitive to change? It turns out a lab in Germany has been working on a sensor that captures moving images the way our eyes work, and we’ll see images from that retinal sensor.”

The HPA Tech Retreat is a showcase of talent and technology. And who wouldn’t mind a week in the California desert in February?

For more information on the event, visit www.hpaonline.com.

TOM’S PERSONAL YACHT, THE SCOOBY DOO—2015 will be remembered for a lot of significant events in our industry—the continuing development of ATSC 3.0, the explosion of interest in virtual and augmented reality as well as drones, the rapid drop in the price of UHDTV sets and the inevitability of the FCC’s spectrum auctions. But probably the biggest development that—in some ways—upended our industry this year was the increasing acceptance and programming strength of over the top services.

Netflix, Amazon, Yahoo, Hulu… who would have thought as recently as five years ago that these services would have some of the most innovative programming on television? If you doubt the strength of OTT, you don’t have to look much further than the Emmy Awards, where—in relation to overall viewership—programming from these streaming services dominated the list of nominations. And binge watching? That was a concept that was almost completely unknown as recently as a couple years ago.

How many TV lovers will see these under the Christmas tree this year?

The traditional broadcast networks have made valiant attempts to join the OTT frenzy by launching their own streaming services. ABC, CBS, Fox, NBC and PBS have all launched streaming services in recent years and with Hulu jointly owned by ABC, Fox and NBC, one would think that the networks have a secure foothold on streaming popularity. But in reality, if all your streaming services are offering the same programming that you can get for free over-the-air, that’s not necessarily a winning combination, except maybe to cord-cutters. And as for that trend, the jury is still out as to how much of an impact it is having.

CBS’s announcement last month that it would produce a new “Star Trek” series that would only be available on its All Access streaming service was probably the best evidence yet that OTT is finally coming into its own. The announcement lended credence to some media critics’ contention that the reason that OTT-only programming—like the original programming explosion that started on premium cable networks nearly two decades ago—is more innovative and groundbreaking than network primetime programming, which is hampered by FCC decency regulations and the need to appeal to the widest possible audience, (the success of Fox’s “Empire” notwithstanding).

To say that OTT has not had much of an impact on our industry is to deny reality. And its impact is being felt worldwide. In a report issued last April, Juniper Research estimated that the pay-TV OTT market could be worth $31.6 billion by 2019, up from just $8 billion in 2014. U.K.-based Paywizard, in its recent report “OTT Isn’t Just for Christmas,” estimates that more than 50 percent of consumers will go OTT during the holiday season. Despite the increasing popularity of streaming boxes from Roku, Apple TV and Google Chromecast, the majority—66 percent—will view streaming services over mobile devices, (although it does add that 80 percent of those surveyed use the traditional TV set as their main viewing device). And of the 69 percent of respondents planning to sign up for OTT, 41 percent will subscribe to multiple services.

Despite the rosy outlook, the research firm adds that almost a third of current subscribers and more than half of those signing up this holiday season plan to cancel such services after six months. A quarter of the respondents citie that the services are “too expensive” as the main reason for cancellation. How OTT services retain those subscribers is the next big challenge.

So although there may be some bumps along the road, it’s obvious that the developments that took place in 2015—particularly on the programming side—prove that OTT will continue to have a major impact on how the television industry evolves.