WASHINGTON—We are on the cusp of a new age of consumer technology, said Steve Koenig, vice president of market research at the Consumer Technology Association (CTA) during his “2019 Tech Trends” keynote at the 2018 Government Video Expo in late November. At some point over the course of the last decade, which he describes as the “connected age,” we began to take the internet for granted, expecting our consumer devices to be online. “We’re streaming audio, video—most of our waking hours are spent online either passively or actively.” 

Not only have we been using these devices to stay connected, they have been using us, collecting data on what we watch, where we go and what we like to buy.

AI

So what’s on the horizon? “Get ready for the data age of consumer tech,” Koenig said. “More and more business decisions, more and more consumer choices are guided and informed by data. Just think about your Netflix queue. Those recommendations about what you might like, that isn’t just magic. That’s all built off of data. So we look across the whole tech ecosystem, I think data is the common denominator. Whether it’s Netflix or a self-driving vehicle, data is behind much of what we do, and that’s only going to grow and multiply exponentially as we get into the next decade.”

This era will be driven by advances in AI and machine learning, which Koenig anticipates will be a strong theme at the upcoming International Consumer Electronics Show, which the CTA produces every January in Las Vegas. Drawing an anticipated 180,000 trade professionals from 150 countries this year, according to Koenig, CES is probably the world’s largest consumer technology event.

About AI, Koenig continued, “Companies have massive amounts of customer data ... that they want to make sense of that would take us humans years and years” to sort. And AI will potentially be able to do it in real time, translating this data into instant, actionable information.

Stressing the importance of AI as a technology enabling the future, Koenig mentioned a study released by the McKinsey Global Institute in September. “Just to kind of underscore the significance of AI, they likened the global economic impact of AI in terms of GDP growth globally to the invention of the steam engine or the steam locomotive 150 years ago... They go on to say that through 2030, AI will add 1.2 percent to global GDP growth. It’s such a small percentage, but what’s behind that is quite literally trillions of U.S. dollars. Trillions. That’s how significant AI is. You don’t have to look too deep to uncover other statistics about the vast majority of commercial operations that are either using AI now or making plans to.”

5G

With the speed of technological progress, it’s not surprising that Koenig noted another change we’ll be navigating over the next few years, and another enabling technology. “We’re bridging into the data age, and 5G, which is the next generation of wireless connectivity, is essentially going to become the central nervous system of the data age.”

The hallmarks of 5G—faster speed, greater capacity and lower latency—are all critical elements to enable emerging technologies such as self-driving vehicles, smart cities, 8K video and others.

In its publication “5 Technology Trends to Watch in 2019,” the CTA noted that the U.S. “is beginning a transformation that will create lucrative business opportunities for many. 5G is coming and its rich bandwidth will reduce latency, allow a fast data stream and incentivize new services that cross the borders of all tech sectors. Combined with low-cost sensors, deep data analytics and AI, 5G will be the backbone for much of the smart city infrastructure that will help drive resilience for unforeseen disasters ... 5G will also fuel the connected home, transform digital healthcare and create immersive experiences for global sports fans. Of course, AI will be at the core of each of these areas, supporting them with data to make informed actions.”

Describing the many potential opportunities it may unlock, Koenig explained that 5G, deployed as fixed wireless broadband, has the capacity to bridge the digital divide in the United States and other large countries with geographically dispersed citizens. Noting that it is too expensive to lay fiber to support access to broadband internet for all the residents of the Appalachian Mountains, for example, “fixed wireless 5G brings those super-fast speeds of broadband to places that heretofore have not been able to get a robust internet connection.”

[Read: 5G—The Future Is Now]

He added that 4G and 5G are going to coexist for a time while networks are built out to support 5G deployments and 5G smartphones are put in the hands of consumers. Koenig predicts that by 2022 or 2023, the majority of handsets shipping in the U.S. will be pure 5G.

8K

Koenig positions the 2019 International CES as “the coming-out party for 8K TV,” based on monthly shipment data CES tracks in the U.S. market: “In the October year-to-date data for TV shipments, we have breached the 1 million mark [for the first time] in terms of unit volume shipped for TV sets 70 inches and above,” the target screen size for 8K resolution.

He admits that there’s little native 8K content now and no 8K transmission in the United States, but we were in a similar position when HDTVs first began to appear around the turn of the century.

As for how many 8K televisions are going to sell in the coming year, Koenig said, “Right now my current thinking is 100,000 or less. It’s going to be pretty small simply because it’s a brand new technology.”

He added, “It starts small but then we hit an inflection point. Now, when that big inflection point comes, I don’t think 8K is going to be a big majority seller simply because it’s domain is very, very large screens.”

The trend in the United States is toward increasingly large screens, so 8K sets may increase in prominence over time. “Ten years ago, under 40 inches was the lion’s share of TV shipments, and that has slowly modulated to where now shipments of TVs above 40 inches are the lion’s share. The size category that’s just crushing it right now is 65 inch. Three years ago it was 55 inch. You can start to see a trend here.”

Smart Speakers and Digital Assistants

This holiday season, tech spending is expected to reach a record $96.1 billion in the U.S. alone, according to CTA research, a year-over-year increase of 3.4 percent. Whether it’s emerging tech like smart speakers and smart home devices, or the popular categories like TVs and laptops, tech is an integral part of our lives.

CTA projects that smart speakers such as Amazon’s Echo and Google Home will sell 22 million units this holiday season, up 44 percent over 2017.

Discussing consumer purchasing trends, Koenig said, “About every five or six years there tends to be a must-have consumer tech product. It has the signature of hyper-growth and hyper-volume of sales, so almost overnight, millions of households adopt it. Today that’s the smart speaker.” Five or six years ago, the must-have consumer tech item was the tablet; before that it was the smartphone, and back in 2002 it was the DVD player.

Smart speakers provide an entrée into the home for AI via the speakers’ digital assistant. Microsoft’s Cortana, Apple’s Siri, Amazon’s Alexa and Google Assistant are some very capable helpers, and they are changing the way consumers interact with and even purchase new technology.

“CES 2018 taught us three things related to digital assistants,” Koenig said. “The first is that these digital assistants are going into more vessels—this is everything from phones to PCs to cars.”

The second point: “Support for these assistants has now become table stakes, just like connectivity was mandatory several years ago.” If you brought forward a non-connected device in 2010, people didn’t have much interest in it; it’s the same now with devices that don’t interconnect with a digital assistant ecosystem.

This has become critically important in smart home products, where digital assistants have become the killer app, according to Koenig, which leads to the third point: these digital assistants are quickly establishing voice as the go-to user interface.

“Voice is really coming into the user experience,” he said. “I predict that within five years, things that we normally do on a website or through an app, that all gets pushed to the digital assistant that is omnipresent in our experience. They’re in our car, they’re on our phone, they’re on our laptop, they’re in the kitchen on the smart speaker, they’re integrated into the fridge—they’re everywhere. Therefore, they’re always standing by to help. So voice and digital assistants become the new search.”

Koenig isn’t simply speculating on this. The CTA conducted research over the summer that revealed several things about how American adults are using these digital assistants. Koenig noted, “The list is very long of the things that consumers are doing with these digital assistants—it’s not just a few things like checking the weather or setting an alarm. Point two: the things that they are doing are what we would normally fire up an app for or go to a website.” At least part of the time, consumers are starting to pivot to a digital assistant to make purchases or schedule their work and free time.

He added, “I’m belaboring the point, but what I’m trying to say is that we are on the cusp of a major shift in consumer behavior and it’s made possible by these digital assistants, and it will transform our interactions.”

Koenig will be at CES next month to track the accuracy of these forecasts. The 2019 International CES takes place Jan. 8-11 in Las Vegas.

WASHINGTON—The Government Video Expo, held Nov. 27-29, has an image of the U.S. Capitol building in its logo, but the reality on the floor is bigger than one building or just the federal government market alone. Indeed, a glance at attendee show badges on the exhibition floor or at the conference shows an eclectic mix of media professionals from many arenas.

While attendees included personnel from local, state and federal governments and all the agencies and contractors within that leviathan, this base was joined by representatives from state and local emergency personnel, defense-related contractors, educational institutions, houses of worship, and plenty of regional production types and broadcasters.

The conference schedule also reflected this. While many presentations and speakers were quite government-specific, broader topics such as live streaming, LED lighting advancements, SMPTE 2110, and high dynamic range video appealed to many modern media professionals.

TOPICS AND TRENDS

The SMPTE ST 2110 Professional Media Over Managed IP Networks suite of standards has been the hot topic at trade shows of late, and it was on the minds of many at GV Expo. The importance of the new standard was reflected in the addition of the day-long SMPTE in DC: Essential Technology Advances for Media Pros Conference, which attracted a number of local broadcast and media professionals eager to dig deep into the implications of IP on their media operations.

On the exhibit floor, the big buzz words were 4K, UHD and IPTV, according to Tommy Goodson, president of AudioVideo BrandBuilder (AVBB) Corp. “What we’re hearing at this show in particular is a lot about IPTV, with 2110 on the agenda … everybody who has come by is preparing for 2110.”

AVBB—a master distributor and manufacturer rep primarily for test and measurement specialist Phabrix and streaming company Teracue—said it was seeing great interest in the 2110-friendly Phabrix line, including the Sx-TAG model and the Qx IP, a fully flexible 2110 rasterizer.

Also popular was Teracue’s iCUE Grid Video Wall, is an IP Video Wall Presenter for multiple content sources within the video wall. It allows complete on-the-fly control over visualized live and/or on-demand content in any resolution.

AR/VR was present on the exhibition floor within products and at the conference, but the technology is a bit less in-your-face at trade shows now. The same can be said for artificial intelligence, which also had a decent presence on the conference schedule, but was not plastered on every booth on the exhibition floor as has been seen at events over the last few years. This may reflect the technology maturation, as AI or AR/VR are now established products or part of established products.

An example is Quantum’s StorNext media workflow file system. More than a year ago the company had announced it would offer Veritone Inc.'s multi-engine AI platform in a StorNext-managed environment. At GV Expo, the incorporation was a reality and AI is now just part of an overall system. There were no flashy robots on display representing the brave new world of AI, but representatives from Veritone did attend Day One of the show.

StorNext has applications across broadcast, security, defense and other environments that generate lots of data that needs to be evaluated and used. NewTek’s Tricaster multicamera production system also has a broad range of applications. It was on show at the booth of Washington Professional Systems, a dealer/integrator from nearby Wheaton, Md., that is also a NewTek Elite Dealer selling the systems across several market areas.

“The Tricaster product line is versatile enough that it is not just a broadcast switcher, there is so much more under the hood that allows it to be used in many AV environments,” said Jeremy Morris, Sr. Engineer & Certified Tricaster Operator with WPS. WPS’s booth also demonstrated products from Crestron, Christie and others.

WPS also had Sony broadcast and robotic cameras on hand, but the media world has seen a merging of the consumer and professional areas over the last several decades, so it makes sense that Sony had its own consumer electronics presence at the show as well. Highlights at this stand included still cameras capable of shooting some impressive video, and high end consumer camcorders such as the FS5 Mk II and the FS7 Mk II, both of which can shoot in 4K.

Sony professional cameras, along with units from Hitachi and JVC, were also present at the large, central booth of Digital Video Group (DVG), a supplier and system integrator of broadcast and production systems.

Alex Martin, DVG CEO, said the company was looking to expand its government business with its offerings, which also included asset management and shared storage from Avid, bonded cellular transmission units from LiveU, and more. Martin said show trends that cut across customers included the real need for 4K and preparing for SMPTE 2110.

PRODUCTION AS BREAD AND BUTTER

Whatever the resolution of the video is, and whether it is sent around a facility as an SDI stream or as an IP packet, production needs will always include camera support and lighting. These needs were front-and-center at Vitec.

On display was the Vinten flowtech 75 set of two-stage carbon fiber tripod legs with a removable mid-level spreader, rubber feet, and a 44-pound payload. This established unit was joined by the flowtech 100, which was only launched a few months ago. Compatible with all major 100 mm fluid heads, flowtech100 supports a payload of up to 66 pounds, making it ideal for heavy-duty ENG/EFP and a wide range of wildlife, commercial, and documentary productions.

Joseph Teodosio, Training & Product Specialist for Vitec, said the first day of the show drew a nice mix of local TV stations, government and military and house of worship (HOW) customers: “The LitePanels Gemini has been a real draw with its very high quality light, and the new flowtech 100 is also attracting people.”

Greg Smalfelt, senior cable television engineer, Communications Production Division, and Josh Bass, cable TV engineer, both with Fairfax County, Va.’s Channel 16, came to see the 100. “We’re an existing customer but we wanted to see the 100 for our bigger cameras, and get some questions answered,” said Smalfelt.

Panasonic was also out in force with a range of production kit for needs ranging from broadcast to HOW to government video entities. The AU-EVA1 compact cinema camera and a new class of PTZ remote cameras and controllers capable of operating in 4K 60 and 50p were joined by the AV-HLC100 small switcher, which is capable of direct streaming to YouTube or Facebook Live.

Smaller scale routing and switching needs were also key at AJA, where the company’s affordable Kumo routers and KiPro Ultra+ recorders were on display. Eastern region territory manager for AJA Dan Wingard said the duo were perfect for many of the potential customers walking the aisles. “We see everything from Federal, state and local government people through to community colleges, really a little bit of everything,” said Wingard.

Barbizon, a distributor of lighting, rigging, projection kit and more, said there was a lot going on in the world of LEDs in 2018. One of the big things this year is that a lot of the LEDs are now IP-rated, which has nothing to do with packets of data but is a measure of the protection an item will have against solid objects (dust, sand, dirt, etc.) and liquids, according to Kearston Dillard-Scott, Outside Sales representative for Barbizon. “Variety is also a trend,” said Dillard-Scott. “Many of the fixtures that were bi-color just from warm to cool can now do full RGB.”

Project Manager for Barbizon Sam Herbig added that the quality of an LED fixture’s light was increasing, and consistency within a product line has greatly improved from a few years ago: “It’s boring, but for anyone lighting to a level it is important,” said Herbig.

IP packets play a large role in an interesting product from Comrex that was on display, and due for shipping before year-end after being launched at the 2018 NAB Show: The VoIP-based Earshot IFB. The hardware-based system delivers live audio feeds to callers and is designed to provide telephone-based live studio program and IFB audio to field-based remote broadcasts, like TV ENG reports or in other applications.

Comrex also had an app called “FieldTap,” which allows a user to connect to Comrex codecs in studio from a cellphone with high-quality wideband audio.

According to Chris Crump, senior director of sales and marketing for the Devens, Mass.-based company, the Comrex LiveShot Portable IP video codec for live wireless newsgathering are in use across government sectors, particularly emergency management and security entities, along with community broadcasters. LiveShot delivers live, two-way, HD video and audio over a range of IP and cellular networks at latencies as low as less than 200mS, he said.

MISSION CRITICAL

Many government and defense video applications are defined as “mission critical,” a niche Oregon-based Planar covers with its narrow pixel pitch direct view LED and LCD panels. “These are purpose-built for mission-critical and mission-command applications, with higher image quality for indoor applications," said Alberto Reyes, director of federal business development for Planar. “We’re now finding other applications as well, any discerning 24/7/365 application in a signage environment really.”

Advances in projection display were evident at the booth of Christie Digital Systems.

“We’re trying to take a leadership position on RGB laser phosphor technology, said Jon Litt, senior manager, Business Development, Government, for Christie. “We’re also trying to bring it to a price point where it would work for more applications.”

Litt said the technology offered tremendous image fidelity, quiet operation, and the ability to run for years with little or no maintenance. Longevity is also a key selling point for the company’s DirectView LED screens, which Litt said had an expected lifespan of 100,000 hours or more while offering exceptional contrast.

HIGH SECURITY CAPTIONING

Captioning is often a government requirement and EEG has been offering encoders that connect broadcasters to iCap, the largest closed captioning and subtitle delivery network in the world, according to the company. While iCap provides 24/7/365 connectivity to thousands of certified caption partners around the globe, new at GV Expo was an option that allows customers to connect to an iCap network via a private VPN, with no public internet connection as part of the process.

“Some customers don’t want any public internet as part of the network, and now that is an option with iCap On-Prem,” said Dave Watts, marketing manager for EEG. iCap On-Prem is a companion product to EEG’s cloud-based delivery network, and it enables the deployment of iCap to private on-premises clouds for customers who require this configuration to accommodate extremely stringent internal security policies. Also on display was an automatic captioning product that relies on Ai and context recognition, and a SMPTE 2110 product.

Security was also key for IBM Watson Media, the end-to-end streaming platform formerly known as UStream: The tagline on the product’s data sheet is “Engage your employees with security-rich video.”

S. Scott Grizzle, WW Cloud Video Solutions Engineer with Watson, said the use cases between a broadcast customer and an enterprise or government customer were different, but there was a lot of crossover. He added that many customers across product sectors were become increasingly interested in video enrichment, where software can identify elements such as scenes, people, animals, etc. and place this information in to metadata.

Equipment aimed at consumers can do a lot of what many media pros need done in 2018. It is perhaps with this in mind that show organizer Future US just announced the launch of The Video Show, a new dual-event venture for December, 2019. The Video Show will pair The Photography Show, now an established U.K.-based event, with the iconic Government Video Expo, which celebrated its 23rd edition this year. 

The event takes place Dec. 3-5, 2019 at the Washington Convention Center. 

What do leading voices from trade, business and journalism have to say about video in 2019?

They say that technology is a key metric for engaging viewers. That enterprise and education have to prepare differently for tomorrow’s video future. That journalism today finds itself part of a unique media climate.

At the 2018 GVExpo, Nov. 27–29 in Washington, attendees will hear from those leaders about what the future may hold.

[Read: “PBS NewsHour” Anchor Judy Woodruff Confronts the Challenge of Today’s Media Climate]

Kicking off the conversation will be a keynote discussion with PBS NewsHour Anchor and Managing Editor Judy Woodruff on Wednesday, Nov. 28. Woodruff will talk about future of journalism and the impact on journalists from today’s media climate. The conversation will be led by Paul McLane, the managing director of content for Future US, who will query Woodruff on technology, current trends in economics and the best ways to go about engaging audiences in today’s segmented media environment.

The status of journalism today continues with conversation on Wednesday with CNN’s Tom Foreman. What’s clear is that journalism — and the technology and tools that drive it — are evolving; that’s an issue that Foreman will cover in the session “From the ‘Situation Room’ to the Thailand Caves — Today’s Evolving Journalism.”

Foreman will talk about how new technology is helping media professionals tell stories more effectively. In July, Foreman used virtual reality technology to illustrate the situation facing emergency personnel attempting to rescue young members of a Thai soccer team from a flooded cave. The resulting VR 3D cross-section of the cave was an immersive, virtual environment that showcased the terrain and potential escape route in bold, visual terms.

On Thursday, Steve Koenig, vice president of market research at the Consumer Technology Association, will touch on key trends in the year ahead in the keynote address “2019 Technology Trends — What to Know, How to Prepare.” He will lead attendees through the potential developments in terms of production, consumption and delivery set for 2019.

The last day will also usher in the all-encompassing keynote discussion “The State of Video in 2018.” The session will look at some successful ways that educational institutions and governmental organizations have approached communication, collaboration, teaching and learning.

Jeff Rubenstein, vice president of Global Product Strategy and Business Development for the video platform company Kaltura, will look at the state of video in both education and enterprise in 2018. And he’ll discuss potential emerging trends that he expects will shape video over the next two years.

The complete schedule for the 2018 GV Expo can be found here.

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ARLINGTON, Va. — Next-generation screen technologies, such as large-screen 4K Ultra-HD TVs saw the biggest gain in household ownership, climbing 15% year-over-year to 31% of U.S. households, according to a new study for the Consumer Technology Association.

The research, CTA’s “20 Annual Consumer Technology Ownership and Market Potential Study,” also found that 19% of U.S. households own at least one TV that has a 60-inch or larger screen. Digital streaming device ownership climbed as well, adding 9% points to 45% of households.

The popularity of smartphones also continues to grow as 87% of U.S. homes now report owning one, propelling the device into second place behind only TVs at 96%, according to the study.

[Read: CTA Promotes Koenig To VP-Market Research]

“The rapid ascent of smartphone ownership in U.S. households exemplifies the versatility of these devices — for communication, for entertainment, for productivity and more. And because of that, it’s possible we’ll see smartphone ownership in the U.S. match that of TVs within the next five years,” said Steve Koenig, VP of market research at CTA.

For the first time, the top three most frequently owned tech devices all have screens, with the third most popular being laptop computers at 72%.

Ownership of smart speakers, such as Amazon Echo and Google Home, has tripled to reach 22% of U.S. households, it said.

Smartwatches have been adopted by 18% of U.S. households, while drones showed up in 10% of homes and VR headsets were owned by 11% of households, the research found.

The CTA research was conducted via a dual-frame telephone interview of 2,016 U.S. adults between Feb. 22 and March 5.

More information is available on the CTA website.

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With CES 2018 right around the corner, TWICE spoke to Steve Koenig, senior director, market research, Consumer Technology Association (CTA), about trends and highlights visitors can expect from CES 2018.

TWICE: What do you consider the main tech trends in consumer electronics to be heading into CES?

Steve Koenig: CES is the global stage for innovation and the trends we see there are a mosaic of B2B and B2C (in the market) technologies. On the B2B front, we expect 5G, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robotics to be major trends. For those “in the market” trends, look for: native interfaces (which includes speech recognition and biometric technology); augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) will further redefine our definition of realism; we will get a view of smart cities through a blend B2B and B2C technologies that will shape the future of urban life. CES 2018 will also highlight major tech trends in sports innovation, digital health and automotive technology.

TWICE:What tendencies do you expect to emerge out of this show?

Koenig: Increasing deployment of AI will further automate tasks and routines in meaningful ways — especially in the services sector. Digital assistants (e.g., Alexa, Google Assistant) will become omnipresent in our lives — from our phones, to our homes and vehicles. Wherever we are, they’ll be with us. Already this holiday, we’re seeing massive uptake of smart speakers (one vessel for digital assistants) as holiday gifts. This activity becomes the catalyst establishing voice-control (speech recognition) will become table stakes in the unfolding HMI story for consumer tech. And 2018 will be the year voice-shopping becomes a real sales channel — joining stores, online and mobile.

TWICE:Alexa was arguably the show-stealer at CES 2017, what do you think will wow the crowd this year?

Koenig: I think we’ll see an extension of the 2017 Alexa surprise in the broadening application of AI (including machine-learning, neural-networks and computer vision). The other “Whoa” factor related to AI at CES 2018 will be how rapidly these systems are improving. We’ll discover new capabilities and applications for AI that will amaze and inspire us.

TWICE: What advances do you expect to see in areas of virtual reality?

Koenig: Some of the most compelling advances in VR over the next year few years will be in content — that is, storytelling with this (still emerging) medium. Expect more short-form content across entertainment and brand-marketing. Also look for longer-form content stories to emerge that will totally transform “movie night.” On the hardware side, I expect more wireless solutions for headsets, but more significantly we’ll have new ways to sense and experience the virtual world; begging the question: What is reality?

TWICE:What will we see at the show in regards to artificial intelligence/robotics and autonomous vehicles?

Koenig: AI is the driving force behind the current robotics trend of migrating from task-based systems to those with a service orientation, which can range from companion robots in the home to systems design to function in a commercial setting. At CES 2018 we will learn about new use cases for these service robots and how in some cases they are automating certain tasks or just filling a role like a family companion. CES 2018 will initiate a new chapter in the evolving story of AI’s role in the self-driving vehicle. We will witness improvements in computer vision but also the processing power of AI systems enabling faster learning of the driving task but also decision-making on the open road.

TWICE:Do you think the development (and application) of blockchain technology will bring major changes to the tech sector?

Koenig: Blockchain technology holds some near-term promise for the financial sector in its ability to create an open source, secure and verifiable chain of transactions that, by design, is exceedingly hard to alter or defeat and eliminates much of the vulnerability inherent in introducing one or more intermediaries into an otherwise direct exchange of currency for goods or services. In establishing a peer-to-peer trust ledger in this way, blockchain also holds great promise for Internet security by, for example, helping a network of distributed IoT devices establish a private blockchain amongst themselves. By requiring each device on the network to constantly update, store and solve the next block in the blockchain, only computers that can decrypt and verify the next block in the chain will be allowed to connect to this private network.

TWICE:Do you expect quantum computers to become a short-term reality?

Koenig: Quantum computing is a reality but unfortunately at such a small scale to be of no use to the average person. Researchers have worked with quantum computing for 30-plus years and have proved that what was once theoretical is, in fact, possible. Currently, quantum computers can do fairly rudimentary math problems quickly, but scaling a quantum computer to a point where the greater speed would justify the expense and effort is, according to many in the field, at least 10 and perhaps 20 years away. So in the most literal sense, quantum computing is here, now. But building a universal computer capable of harnessing the power of quantum computing by running any code thrown at it (versus doing one specific type of calculations) is billions of dollars and several technical hurdles away from being anything more than theoretical.

TWICE:Cyber safety seems ever more important, yet one gets the feeling that the presence of smart devices in our lives is growing so fast that privacy and cybersafety can’t possibly keep up. What comfort can you offer to a consumer who wants smart devices but worries about this loss of personal privacy?

Koenig: As connections in the home rise so does the importance of practicing good online hygiene. This means putting the appropriate security measures in place to protect the home network (e.g., firewalls, security passwords, etc.). But also securing PCs and mobile devices (that can control smart-home devices). Lastly, users should practice safe online conduct and remain vigilant to ostensible threats—become healthy skeptics—given most threats come through common channels like your email inbox.

TWICE:For readers working specifically in the “home and business computing sector,” what new directions are you seeing?

Koenig: Expect to see new entrants in the server space and GPU arenas for high performance computing to support machine learning endeavors. On the consumer front we’re expecting to see more solutions like Samsung DeX that enable smartphones to function like PCs when attached to an external display and input devices (like keyboard/mouse).

TWICE:We hear a great deal of interest in products for the home — entertainment and smart-home/automation devices. What’s next that we should watch for in this?

Koenig: The general theme across home entertainment and smart home will be greater integration and support for digital assistants like Alexa and Google Assistant. For TVs, expect more video walls and less supersize displays. And we will probably see and learn more about micro-LED technology.

TWICE:CTA does research into what are the most (and least) commonly owned consumer technology products, from 4K Ultra HDTVs to wearables and in-car communications. Where are you seeing the biggest growth right now? Which categories are lagging?

Koenig: Based on CTA’s market research in 2017, some of the fastest growth categories in 2017 based on ownership include:

• 4K UHD TVs
• Smartphones
• Smart-home devices
• Smart watches
• Smart speakers (like Amazon Echo)
• Wearable activity trackers
• Wireless speakers (both portable and stationary)

Consumer tech categories that are declining include:

• E-readers
• DVD players
• Camcorders
• Portable game consoles
• Portable GPS devices
• MP3 Players
• Digital point-and-shoot cameras
• Cordless phones

TWICE:How do you interpret the growth of streaming video and its impact on shrink-wrapped product (DVDs, CDs, etc.) ... and where is that trend going?

Koenig: The growth of streaming media services (both video and audio) is a function of consumers’ on-demand expectations for access to content anytime and anywhere. That said, we still see demand for physical media for library content or high-quality versions (like 4K HDR). However, some consumers (typically older adults) still prefer physical media on principle.

TWICE: What about the decline in sales of TV sets?

Koenig: Year-to-date shipment volumes of LCD TVs through September were up 5 percent and we expect annual 2017 sales volume growth to remain positive. Where we are seeing decline in TV sales is in the under 40-inch size categories, which our current forecasts predict will fall 22 percent on a volume basis this year.

TWICE:Where do you see drone-technology headed?

Koenig: While we continue to see drones marketed in consumer sales channels for hobbyists and enthusiasts, drones are beginning to take flight in commercial and industrial applications to perform tasks with greater speed and efficiency than humans (like search/rescue operations or package delivery) or fill roles that are dangerous (such as building or bridge inspections).

This article originally appeared on TVT's sister publication TWICE. 

WASHINGTON—The promise of a future of virtual and augmented reality and artificial intelligence is not just a pipedream but is here and now and is revolutionizing our daily activities.

That was the word from Steve Koenig, senior director of market research for the Consumer Technology Association, in his presentation to the 2017 GV Expo. Koenig described a future where VR/AR and AI will bring immersive experiences that could alter how consumers define “reality.” These technologies have practical applications beyond the gaming and entertainment sectors, as Koenig described a virtual future where VR could replace face to face meetings and help veterans overcome post traumatic stress disorder, for example.

“Presence—remember that word,” Koenig said. “VR delivers a sense of presence with this experience that we've never seen before.”

Koenig noted that falling prices will soon kickstart VR, citing Facebook’s recent introduction of Oculus Go, a self-contained unit that retails for less than $200. “They want to get VR in a billion peoples' hands, which seems a big number but is actually quite modest when you think about how many users Facebook has globally,” he said.

BEYOND ENTERTAINMENT

Health care is another area where VR will be a tremendous asset, Koenig said. Project Bravemind, a project developed by researchers at USC, allows counselors and physicians to use VR to help victims of PTSD recreate traumatic experiences to cope and eventually recover. “[Project Bravemind] is an application that I think is really meaningful when it comes to serving our veterans and doing right by them,” Koenig said.

Over the past decade, numerous historical sites and materials have been destroyed by religious extremists in the Middle East and VR can help archaeologists develop virtual environments that recreate what has been lost. “Those sites are gone forever, but thanks to VR we can record and render what they actually would have looked like,” Koenig said. “You can virtually tour them, and we can virtually document them in an immersive way, but we can also render what they would have looked like way back when.”

Virtual meetings are also beginning to replace face to face interactions, Koenig noted. “This is going to start to happen more and more either in more of a casual sense, but also for business reasons,” he said. The concept of virtual trade shows has been around for more than a decade but VR could greatly alter and accelerate the move to virtual meetings in the near future. “In five years there will be an opportunity to have a virtual element of [trade shows], so people who couldn't attend could actually virtually attend the same trade show using VR,” Koenig said.

AI AND IOT

Koenig also touched on artificial intelligence, a technology that stirs both optimism and concern among consumers as well as businesses, and for varying reasons. He described the differences between “narrow AI,” characterized by popular consumer products like Amazon Alexa and Google Home, which use algorithms to determine such things as recommendations and give weather forecasts and “general AI” that is more complex, using machine learning to do tasks in real time, such as operating autonomous vehicles. Koenig used the HAL 9000 from “2001: A Space Odyssey” to illustrate what general AI is, adding “we’re a decade away from that, and the good news is that by the time we get there, I think we’ll figure out how to incorporate those systems into our society and our economies.”

All of these technologies are being connected via the Internet of Things, which is the concept of using IP to allow connected devices to communicate with each other. Keonig warned attendees to not think of IoT as a “trend,” but as a technology that is here and now, using the “smart home” concept as an example. Koenig noted that sales of smart home devices such as Alexa and Google Home have surpassed $1 billion in revenue so far this year.

“IoT is a connected revolution, the likes of which we have not seen this kind of change in our culture, to our society, to our economy, our whole way of life, since the industrial revolution,” Koenig said.