NEW YORK—The world’s largest prediction market Kalshi and Fox Corporation have announced a major deal that will see Kalshi’s data and forecasts integrated across Fox News Channel, Fox Business Network, Fox Weather and the Fox One platform.

"Prediction markets have quickly become an essential data point and a compelling new experience across our live content portfolio," said Paul Cheesbrough, CEO, Tubi Media Group. "By integrating Kalshi's real-time data into our fast-growing streaming platform Fox One and across Fox News Media's leading networks, we're giving audiences both deeper insights and a more engaging way to follow the stories that matter most."

In announcing the deal, Fox stressed that prediction markets create data that can complement polling and expert opinion. Kalshi data has been adopted by newsrooms to provide nonpartisan data on the likelihood of current events across politics, economics, and culture. Institutions like the Federal Reserve have also adopted Kalshi data, calling it “valuable to researchers and policymakers.”

Trading on data from prediction markets has, however, proved to be controversial in cases where people have used prediction markets to bet on such issues as the possibility of a war. This has prompted reporting from The New York Times and others about the possible abuse of inside information to profit from bets on upcoming events or trends.

Kalsi noted that millions of people come to Kalshi each month, primarily to see the forecasts. Roughly 70% of people who visit Kalshi use the site to check market odds, while about 30% of people use it to trade. By providing another data point to supplement reporting, Kalshi said it is quickly becoming an additional way for people to understand and follow current events.

As part of this sponsored integration, relevant Kalshi data will be incorporated into Fox’s linear and digital content. Kalshi will also work directly with Fox data and production teams to provide real-time data access for seamless data visualization around key political, economic, weather and cultural storylines.

“More people are watching Kalshi’s forecasts than trading them, which says a lot: our data effectively complements news and polls,” said Tarek Mansour, co-founder and CEO of Kalshi. “As misinformation grows more common, Kalshi offers accurate, unbiased data to help people better understand what’s going on in the world.”

Time to dust off the turban, cue the pungi and climb out on a limb with my top 10 TV broadcast predictions for 2025.

I certainly claim to have no psychic skill. Rather, these predictions come from my reporting over the past year and observations made along the way.

One caveat: If my No. 1 prediction turns out poorly for broadcasters, all bets are off on at least six others. Time will tell. Enjoy.

My Predictions
1. It’s make or break time for ATSC 3.0. A court decision in the Constellation Designs-LG Electronics patent case is expected in 2025. A favorable decision for LG likely means the company’s re-entrance into the NextGen TV market. A decision for Constellation Designs could mean all NextGen TV makers pull the plug, and 3.0 becomes a footnote in the history of U.S. television.

2. Cord-cutting continues its march. MVPDs have lost considerable audience since the advent of streaming alternatives. Comparitech puts the annual subscriber decline at 6 million between 2019 and 2022. Since February 2023, Nielsen says, more than one-third of U.S. TV usage is based on streaming. This trend will continue in 2025 and beyond. A study by Digital TV Research projects fewer than 60 million pay-TV households in the U.S. and Canada by 2029.

3. The number of OTA households will inch higher as the benefits of hybrid over-the-air and over-the-top delivery come into focus. In February 2024, Nielsen pegged the number of U.S. TV households with at least one over-the-air set in use at 18%. With 70% of U.S TV homes owning one or more smart TVs—14 million of which include ATSC 3.0 tuners and more on the way—an increasing number of viewers are experiencing 3.0-based hybrid OTA-OTT features. One, NBCU’s Start Over, gives viewers a TV experience more akin to streaming with the ability to start a show over. Another is Broadcast-Enabled Streaming TV (BEST) (aka Broadcast IP). Some commercial TV viewers and public broadcast fans, too, are already enjoying access to a fuller menu of 3.0 channels in their markets thanks to the hybrid broadcast-streaming technology.

4. Testing of ATSC 3.0 and 5G Broadcast concurrently transmitted from the same transmitter. At least one transmitter vendor has told broadcasters it can be done. The proof, of course, will be in the tasting of the pudding, and that vendor will step into the kitchen to conduct a test.

5. The ATSC 1.0 logjam will break. The November election will change the makeup of the commission. The FCC will move forward with a workable plan to expedite the sunset of 1.0 and stomp down on the accelerator for 3.0. Broadcasters may find the solution bittersweet if it involves another spectrum auction.

6. ATSC 3.0-based Broadcast Positioning System gets a chance to prove itself. ATSC 3.0-based BPS offers the nation an affordable, resilient complement/backup to GPS for critical timing and positioning applications. The change of national leadership opens a path to BPS trials.

7. Broadcasters earn revenue from 3.0 datacasting. The efforts of Sinclair and OTA Wireless (the joint venture of Nexstar Media Group and E.W. Scripps) to create a new revenue stream based on datacasting begin to pay dividends. Other broadcasters take note and look for ways to cash in.

8. Public, private and on-prem clouds continue to transform broadcast and production infrastructure and workflows. From live production to playout, momentum will continue to grow for cloud-based workflows as broadcasters look for greater efficiency and savings.

9. Politicians consider shaking up their media strategies for 2026. Some politicians and consultants mulling over the results of the 2024 campaign will look to long-form podcasts to replicate the success of President-elect Donald Trump. Constrained by the equal time rule, broadcasters may decide they have to take a pass, or they may spin up new ad-hoc digital subchannels to make swallowing the equal-time pill a bit easier.

10. Internationally, ATSC 3.0 records more wins. The Brazilian government will adopt the recommendation of its SBTVD Forum for that nation’s TV 3.0 standard, choosing to incorporate major portions of ATSC 3.0, including the physical layer, into its broadcast future. The ATSC 3.0 standard will also see progress in India, Canada and Mexico.

We asked broadcast equipment suppliers their predictions for the broadcast industry in 2024. Ralph Bachofen with Triveni Digital weighs in...

In 2024, we envision that broadcasters will start to operationalize NextGen TV, progressing from the trial phase of ATSC 3.0 delivery and exploring its monetization opportunities. For example, with NextGen TV, operators can lease out excess broadcast spectrum for data services.

 This year, we also predict that broadcasters will leverage ATSC 3.0 to drive new revenue through targeted advertising, connected cars and autonomous vehicles, gaming, advanced emergency alerts, IoT, and datacasting.

However, to successfully support new business models such as datacasting services and targeted advertising, it will be critical for broadcasters to have redundancy mechanisms in place — such as an automatic switch-over system or a dual broadcast chain. 

The backup broadcast chain should include all of the components necessary to deliver ATSC 3.0, including encoders, monitoring systems, broadcast gateways, transmission paths, and more.

As momentum for ATSC 3.0 continues to grow, we anticipate that broadcasters — particularly in public state-wide networks — will look for ways to efficiently repeat or translate their existing ATSC 3.0 signal to other areas.

The direct-to-consumer revolution is not only transforming the consumer experience, but it’s also transforming how content is backhauled. The rapid expansion of high-definition video and livestreaming adds to the challenge of that transition. As such, more of an emphasis will be placed on producing anywhere and lowering latency in 2024. 

The Complexity of Multicloud Environments
Cloud adoption had already been steadily climbing in the decade leading up to 2020, but during the lockdown it skyrocketed, owing in no small part to the need for remote collaboration across the media and entertainment supply chain. The benefits include tremendous flexibility, accessibility, processing power, affordable storage, and efficient collaboration on the production side, from editing to sound to animation. The advantages are great, which is why we’ll certainly see continued growth in cloud adoption in 2024, but there are associated challenges. 

The architectural complexity of multicloud environments is hard to manage. Engineers can more easily familiarize themselves with a single cloud environment, which is simpler to mold to the needs of an organization. The more technologies are incorporated, the more of an undertaking implementation becomes, leading to delays, increased costs and more troubleshooting. 

Additionally, managing a growing roster of SaaS providers has become more of a burden. As such, companies will increasingly look to partners that can offer multiple solutions on one platform as a way to reduce costs, boost productivity and streamline operations. 

The explosion of FAST Channels, IP delivery, OTT and other bandwidth-intensive advancements only complicates matters further. As a result, companies will increasingly invest in technologies and solutions that will help address those capacity challenges. Edge technology, for example, enables organizations to process and analyze data much faster, while potentially bolstering security by reducing the distance that data travels from the production to the end consumer. 

The Cybersecurity Challenge of a Decentralized Supply Chain
In 2017, hackers obtained the files of the yet-to-be-released fifth season of Netflix’s Orange is the New Black. Even though Netflix refused to comply with the ransom, the PR fiasco served as a reminder for the media and entertainment industry: Your cybersecurity is only as strong as your weakest link. 

In this case Netflix felt the experience they already provided consumers was better than what any hacker could provide. As details emerged hackers didn’t steal the files directly from Netflix. They stole it from a post-production company working on Netflix’s signature series.

The decentralized nature of the media and entertainment industry means that exposure is often interconnected. Media and entertainment companies engage with a wide variety of third-party providers, particularly on big productions, which can include special effects, animation, sound, graphics, so on and so forth. 

With so much data and intellectual property outsourced across a constellation of players, which may include smaller production studios, freelancers and other contractors, it can be difficult limiting the number of people who have access to business-critical information. Some vendors may be specialty studios that lack the resources for dedicated security personnel, which could effectively serve as a backdoor for hackers to obtain valuable data that wouldn’t have otherwise been able to get. 

The In-venue Use Case
With more valuable content on the cloud, therefore, the need for robust cybersecurity solutions has emerged as a priority for the industry—a trend that will only accelerate in the following year. While investing in threat detection and perimeter security solutions goes a long way toward mitigating risk, how these organizations structure their networks will have a big impact on security. Consider the in-venue example. 

Historically, venues have posed challenges both for venue operators and consumers with regard to internet access. Anyone who’s been to a large sporting event or concert, for example, can testify to the difficulty of accessing the internet. There’s just too many people trying to gain access at the same time—and often with highly bandwidth-intensive activities like livestreaming. Couple that with high-resolution video, interactive experiences, and broadcasting and/or livestreaming production setups on the venue side, and the bandwidth demands skyrocket. 

As a result, more and more venue operators are investing in private networks, which deliver greater capacity, speed and security. Connecting a MEC solution to the private 5G network can accommodate applications with a requirement for ultra-low latency and can provide greater support for differentiated experiences, onsite analytics and AI applications. 

Controlling data and IP in 2024
This year, media and entertainment companies will continue to invest in IP connectivity, cloud, Edge and private network solutions. They’ll continue to invest in 5G because it provides the capacity they need to process and analyze large amounts of data. Investing in capacity and speed leads to more responsive systems and applications.

Keeping more data onsite and on the Edge generally helps reduce the security risk. Media and entertainment companies will seek tighter control of their network in the face of continuing threats and industry flux.

The year 2013 was certainly an interesting one with the rise of 4K television, the introduction of immersive audio and with CALM Act complaints finally trickling down to broadcasters. Whether this year will be as surprising as last year is anyone’s guess, but there are a few topics I think will be the big stories in television audio this year.

REFINEMENT OF THE CALM ACT
The FCC will continue to monitor and make adjustments to the CALM Act in the coming year, based on consumer complaints and provider data. The legislation still only targets loudness of commercials and not other programming, even though managing loudness across all content is the only way to provide consistency to the listener.

The fact that the FCC continues to receive complaints about loud commercials is partly due to confusion in the wording of the act; partly due to the complexity of the issue; and partly due to the fact that the LKFS measurement is not perfect.

On Nov. 1, 2013, the FCC issued a “Notice of Proposed Rulemaking” that says they are going to adopt A/85:2013 into the CALM Act. This is peculiar because many broadcasters have already started using A/85:2013.

This new notice by the FCC states that broadcasters should continue using the 2011 version of A/85 until the new rule is adopted, which means that broadcasters using the 2013 revision are actually not in compliance. The notice then waives the requirement to use the earlier version for anyone that already adopted A/85:2013. Is it any wonder that content creators and broadcasters are confused?

There is also confusion over exactly how to measure content, even though A/85 spells it out as clearly as it can. Many times the material is to blame, with some commercials having non-traditional mixes (10 seconds of outdoor ambience with no voiceover), or the dramatic pause-for-effect prior to a loud commercial. Content like this not only complicates measurements, but it can also slow down the process of getting it to air.

Then there is the LKFS measurement itself, on which this entire house of cards is based. The measurement is not perfect, which is why it is constantly being improved, but some consider it the best tool the industry has come up with so far to measure loudness in a manner that approximates what humans hear.

There are some dissenters that think the LKFS measurement has serious problems, but it has one thing that alternative measurements don’t. It is the measurement required by law. Obviously, there are still some issues with CALM, so expect to see movement on it this year.

AUDIO OBJECTS, NOT IMMERSIVE AUDIO
There is a lot of talk right now about immersive audio, primarily because 4K video seems to be taking off and immersion is the audio industry’s contribution to that format. Delivering immersive audio to the home will likely require new content creation workflows; new delivery methods; new equipment for creator, broadcaster and listener; new metadata authoring; and more speakers in the living room.

While all of this would be a shot in the arm for audio manufacturers, the average home listener may find little benefit from it, but many complications. However, there is one part of immersive audio that could provide great benefits to the professional and consumer alike, and that is the use of audio objects.

Audio objects are additional channels of audio that can be made up of just about anything, from individual sounds to groups of sounds, to mixed channels of sounds. They were initially conceived as a way to augment surround mixes and deliver specific sounds to specific additional speakers, just as Dolby Atmos does in theaters.

The true power behind audio objects comes from their ability to act as replacement elements for existing elements in the primary mix. It’s similar to having more than one hundred mix minuses from which a completely new mix can be constructed. This could be especially useful for multilanguage content delivery, with a secondary language audio object taking the place of the primary language audio object. Music and sound effects replacement are other targets for this technology.

Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.), co-sponsor of the CALM Act With expanding worldwide distribution of content, along with increased scrutiny by attorneys and rights-holders, audio objects seems to be a technology whose time has arrived.

LOUDNESS MANAGEMENT FOR MOBILE, ONLINE DELIVERY
Finally, there is the area of loudness management for the countless personal and Web-connected devices in use. Phones, tablets and streaming appliances are like the new Wild West when it comes to audio. Device outputs run the gamut from tiny speakers, headphones, HDMI, optical and unbalanced phono among others, and each one delivers a different user experience. Some of those user experiences occur in horrific listening environments too.

The one thing all of these devices have in common is the lack of standardized loudness management for streaming and broadcast content. Playing a movie from iTunes on a device, and then changing to another movie or television show in the same application does not guarantee the audio level will be the same, or even close. Watching a streaming service such as Netflix or Hulu can deliver an even worse audio experience, with many commercials and bumpers being significantly higher in loudness than the main content.

Mobile broadcasting has a bit of a head start in this area after seeing similar work done for the CALM Act, and work is currently being done to develop a loudness target for mobile. Still, with more consumers using streaming and personal devices, the complaints are bound to make it to the FCC’s ears.

Hopefully the industry will act on loudness management for streaming and personal devices before the government decides to force it through legislation.

That’s the short list of issues that I think could become a bigger part of the audio-for- television landscape this year. We’ll know in January 2015 how big these topics really were.

Jay Yeary is an audio engineer currently working with the engineering department of a large media company. He is not a professional prognosticator, but is willing to play one on TV.