LONDON—It doesn’t look like consumers will stop paying for streaming anytime soon, as global OTT revenue is projected to nearly double from 2020 to 2026, according to new forecasts from Digital TV Research.

Per Digital TV Research, OTT revenue across the globe (138 countries) totaled $106 billion in 2020. By 2026, that number is projected to reach $210B, with an increase of $23 billion estimated to take place in 2021 alone.

The top five countries in OTT revenue are expected to command two-thirds of these revenues by 2026. This is actually down from the 71% that the top five represented in 2020, which indicates that the rest of the world is growing in their OTT spending.

The U.S. will continue to be the biggest OTT spender, with Digital TV Research Principal Analyst Simon Murray estimating that the U.S. will hold a 42% share of global revenues in 2026. Revenues are estimated to grow from $42 billion in 2020 to $88 billion in 2026.

China is expected to be among the biggest growers in OTT revenue, with a forecasted growth of about $8.4 billion to bring its total to $24 billion. Japan is expected to nearly double (adding $4.5 billion) for an estimated total of $9.2 billion, while India is likely to triple by adding $4.7 billion for a total of $6.7 billion.

Drilling down into OTT specifics, SVOD revenue is expected to climb by $59 billion between 2020 and 2026, which would bring it to a total of $126 billion. However, its share of the market will dip from 62% to 60%, as ad-supported AVOD platforms are projected to see a revenue increase of $39 billion that would bring its total to $66 billion, representing 32% of the market. AVOD had 26% share of the market in 2020, according to Digital TV Research.

The full report is available from Digital TV Research. 

LONDON—OTT revenue in North America is showing no signs of slowing, according to Digital TV Research, as by 2026 it will generate a projected revenue of $94 billion, nearly double the amount of revenue for 2020 ($49 billion). OTT revenue accounts for both TV episodes and movies.

The U.S. is projected to make up a majority of that revenue. In 2020, the U.S. accounted for about $46 billion of the $49 billion in total revenue. By 2026, that number will increase to $88 billion, per Digital TV Research. Canada is expected to double its OTT revenue between 2020 and 2026, to $5.4 billion.

In just 2021, Digital TV Research projects that OTT revenue will increase by about $10 billion, thanks in large part to SVOD. In 2020, SVOD accounted for $32.5 billion in North America’s total OTT revenue; for 2021 that number is expected to increase to $40.15 billion. By 2026, SVOD revenue is estimated to be generating $54.39 billion.

However, the largest OTT growth sector will be AVOD. AVOD’s 2020 revenue was $10.69 billion. It will jump nearly $3 billion according to Digital TV Research’s 2021 forecast. However, projections for AVOD revenue skyrocket to $32.61 billion by 2026.

For more information, visit www.digitaltvresearch.com.  

MIDDLESEX, U.K.—OTT revenue is expected to substantially increase over the next few years, with the latest projections from Digital TV Research estimating that the OTT market will reach $167 billion in revenue by 2025.

Those results would be double what OTT did in 2019 ($83 billion). Digital TV Research projects that $16 billion alone will be added in 2020.

SVOD is slated to continue as the main driver of OTT revenue, representing 58%; that would see a growth of $50 billion in 2019 to $98 billion in 2025. AVOD, meanwhile, would be the next biggest contributor, with an expected revenue of $54 billion in 2025, up from the $24 billion it earned in 2019.

Digital TV Research says that two-thirds of the OTT revenue will come from the top five countries, a number that is actually down from the 72% the top five accounted for in 2019.

The U.S. will be the largest provider of OTT revenue in 2025 ($68 billion), followed by China ($19 billion).

While coronavirus has led more viewers to streaming content, Digital TV Research has said that the pandemic is hurting the AVOD market, at least for the time being, according to Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research.

For more information, visit Digital TV Research’s website. 

VICTORIA, Canada—Over-the-top revenue rose 37% in 2018 to $16.3 billion and is on pace to grow another 35% to $22 billion in 2019, according to The Convergence Research Group's annual "The Battle for the American Couch Potato" reports.

According to the Convergence reports, traditional pay TV subscribers will continue to decline—down and estimated 5% in 2019 from a 4% drop in 2018—average revenue per unit will increase. Convergence estimates that traditional pay TV ARPU will be three times that of its OTT counterparts by 2021.

Still, the downward trajectory of traditional pay TV distribution will affect revenue—Convergence estimates that 2018 U.S. Cable, Satellite, Telco TV access (not including OTT) revenue fell 3% to $103.4 billion and will decline at a similar rate this year.

“The TV-Movie Industry is being reconstructed from the inside and by the outside, as programmers now directly compete against their traditional TV access and independent OTT buyers that rival in terms of content spend,” Convergence said in the report.

Convergence estimates that U.S. TV subscribers declined by 4.01 million in 2018, up from a drop of 3.66 million in 2017. That pace is expected to quicken in 2018 to a loss of 4.56 million TV subs in 2019.

At the same time Convergence estimates that Broadcast & Cable TV Network Online advertising (increasingly driven by OTT) will represent 6.5% of 2019 U.S. TV advertising revenue.

According to the report, cord cutting started to rise in 2010, and Convergence estimated that as of 2018 30% of households did not have a traditional TV subscription, up from 26% in 2017. By the end of this year, the researcher predicts that 34% of households won’t have a traditional TV subscription.

Still, the researcher believes that the OTT space will continue to be dominated by a handful of players—mainly Netflix, Amazon and Hulu—who are expected to outlive streaming upstarts that will “fail due to insufficient subscriber traction, cost and competition.”

At the same time other programmers—like Disney and WarnerMedia—have taken content away from Netflix and brought it in-house for their own streaming services; Hulu continues to spend aggressively on content (outpacing even Netflix and Amazon on a per-sub basis, according to Convergence); CBS/Showtime’s has added streaming customers at a faster rate than expected; Discovery has forged relationships with Philo, Hulu, Sling and YouTube TV, and will be launching an OTT service with the BBC soon. NBC Universal has joined the streaming video club too, expected to launch an OTT service next year and Viacom has purchased Pluto TV & AwesomenessTV, and is producing for Amazon & Netflix.

While pay TV subscriptions continue to pace downward, broadband relationships are on the rise. The report estimated that 2.85 million broadband subscribers were added to the U.S. rolls in 2018, with revenue from the service up 7% to $61.6 billion. Convergence predicts similar growth metrics for 2019.

Cable will continue to attract the bulk of broadband customers, Convergence said.