LONDON—The global manufacturing of LCD TV panels is expected to see a drop off over the next year or so after significant growth over the last several years because of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, according to a report from Omdia.

As COVID-19 has spread throughout the globe, South Korea suppliers are planning to completely exit LCD TV panel production in Korea in 2020. This will result in the loss of 57 million square meters of capacity, or 17% of total capacity, per Omdia by next year.

Demand for new LCD TV panels is also expected to decline from 2019 numbers by about 10%, Omdia says. From 2019-2021, Omdia estimates manufacturing capacity is only expected to grow by 2%—it grew almost 50% from 2013-2020.

Factories are expected to continuously be added in China, though they are currently experiencing setbacks related to the COVID-19.

Omdia projects that unit demand will begin to recover after 2021, but that it could take two to three years to reach 2019 levels. However, this could be helped by a demand for larger LCD TV panels, with the average panel size of LCD TV panels increasing from 45.4 inches to 49.2 inches.

“The year 2020 was previously expected to be a time of substantial change for the FPD (flat panel display) industry,” said Charles Annis, senior director at Omdia. “However, now with COVID-19 and Korean panel makers withdrawing from LCD TV panel production faster and more abruptly than even the most aggressive scenarios, it now looks like this year will suffer from more disruption than anyone imagined only a few months ago.

“If a V-shaped recovery in LCD TV demand can be realized, the combination of larger average sizes and minimal capacity growth are expected to push the large-area FPD supply glut to a very low level of 5% in the third quarter of 2021,” Annis continued. “That is a positive leading indicator for improved pricing and better financial performance for panel makers in 2021 and beyond.”

Omdia’s complete report on LCD TV panels is available online. 

TV suppliers are turning to big screens and advanced display technologies to bolster ASPs and improve earnings at CES 2019, where 8K TVs, improved contrast ratios, voice assistants, and new display technologies such as micro LED and rollable OLED are front and center.

The first roll-up TV — a 65-inch LG OLED model — is making its debut along with a greater selection of LCD TVs with quantum-dot WCG technology.

During the first 10 months of 2018, the retail ASPs of U.S. LCD TVs were flat year over year, with both dollar volume and unit sales up 3 percent, The NPD Group’s Retail Tracking Service found. LCD accounted for the vast majority of North American flat-panel shipments in 2018, or 98.4 percent of 42.6 million units, IHS Markit said.

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Continuing growth in demand for larger screen sizes could help boost ASPs in 2019, when sizes of 50 inches and up will account for almost 100 percent of North American 4K/8K TV shipments, said IHS Markit executive director Paul Gagnon. Among all TVs, sales of 60 inches and larger will increase faster in 2019 to account for 23 percent of all North American TV shipments, thanks to rapidly declining costs of 65-inch panels.

Big-display demand will help stoke 8K demand, Gagnon noted. 8K resolution will be more apparent on big screens that also reduce pixel visibility when viewers are close. Chris Larson, TCL’s North America senior VP, expects 8K “will be represented by all major brands” in the U.S. in 2019, though IHS expects 8K shipments to account for only 0.1 percent (or 42,700) of 42.7 million TVs shipped in North America.

Although native 8K video in noticeable quantities might be a few years away, 8K TVs will use up-scaling technology that has improved dramatically to deliver 8K resolution from HD sources, said Gagnon. Content from 8K cameras can also be displayed, as can a few 8K YouTube videos.

In Japan in December, NHK launched an 8K satellite channel, but David Mercer of Strategy Analytics said “expectations for 8K services should be cautious.” The rest of the world “will be slower to follow suit, given that the number of homes with 8K-ready TVs will remain low until the mid 2020s.”

Despite the excitement surrounding 8K TV, added Strategy Analytics director David Watkins, “It is important to remember that image resolution, whether native or otherwise, is only one element in perceived video quality, and TV vendors and content players alike should not lose focus on other important drivers of consumer satisfaction, such as high dynamic range (HDR) and high frame rate (HFR).”

At CES, 8K launches include LG’s first two SKUs (an 88-inch OLED and 75-inch LCD) and a 98-inch Samsung LCD. They join Samsung’s $15,000 85-inch LCD. TCL is demoing a 75-inch 8K LCD and plans 2019 shipments of an 8K model, expected to feature 8K-capable HDMI 2.1 inputs. Samsung’s current 8K TV features an outboard HDMI switching box that can be swapped for a future HDMI 2.1 version.

8K screen sizes could trickle down below 75 inches in the U.S., said TCL's Larson, but “anything below 65 inches will be a challenge in a real-use environment.”

See: TV At CES 2019: 8K Is 'Getting Real'

Nonetheless, Nanosys sales/marketing VP Russell Kempt expects some suppliers to push LCD-based 8K into more mainstream sizes down to 55 inches in coming years. OLED displays, however, will be challenged to bring 8K to anything but “very large form factors.”

In other big-screen developments, LG is expanding its selection of 70-inch-plus sizes, Samsung is launching a 98-inch 8K model, Philips is showing a 75-inch 4K Android TV, and TCL is bringing back a 75-inch SKU (at less than $1,800 MAP).

Here’s what else to expect:

MICRO LED

Select suppliers will demo micro LED displays, which use emissive red, green and blue LEDs to create 4K color images. Each LED can be turned off to deliver perfect blacks and improved contrast, with faster response times and better off-axis viewing, compared to LED-lit LCD displays. Samsung is showing a smaller, 75-inch version of last year's 146-inch Wall TV. The Wall is available for commercial and custom residential applications. Sony showed a pro model at the CEDIA Expo.

CONTRAST

Full-array local dimming (FALD) will spread to more LED-backlit 4K LCD TVs in 2019 to improve contrast ratios. “Almost all premium LCD sets at about $1,500 and up will transition to FALD in 2019,” predicted Kempt of Nanosys. “We can achieve excellent contrast that a couple years ago people didn’t think possible with LCD technology.” In a new flagship 8 series, TCL is offering 300 percent more zones versus 120 and 96 in its 65- and 55-inch 6 series SKUs, respectively. Select 2018 Sony and Samsung TVs sport around 500 zones, and Vizio offers up to 192. 

MINI LED BACKLIGHTS 

With new mini LED backlights, more LCD TVs will feature thousands of FALD zones, Nanosys’s Kempt said. Samsung features thousands of zones in its current 85-inch 8K TV. TCL is demoing thousands of zones. Other demos might be private.

Mini LEDs are smaller than typical LEDs but larger than micro LEDs. 

More TV suppliers at CES will build far-field microphones for digital assistants into the chassis of select TVs rather than deliver voice control solely through a remote with built-in near-field mic. At a minimum, TVs with embedded far-field mics will be available later in 2019 from TCL and Philips, joining Sony models.

Separately, LG will offer three voice assistants — Google Assistant, Amazon Alexa and proprietary ThinQ — in all new 4K smart TVs, with voice control delivered by a mic-equipped remote. ThinQ delivers voice control over more TV functions than other assistants alone provide, the company said.

BRIGHTNESS, GAMUT

More TVs will get closer to delivering 100 percent of DCI-P3 color gamut, delivered by 4K Blu-ray discs and streaming services. TCL plans its first U.S. TVs with gamut-widening quantum-dot displays sometime in 2019 in multiple screen sizes. “In 2019, quantum dot delivers the right performance for the cost for mainstream consumers,” said TCL North America SVP Chris Larson.

Attendees will likely find more 4K LCD TVs with peak brightness levels of 4,000 nits, as delivered by Samsung’s current 8K TV. One of the brightest 4K displays has been a 2,000-nit 65-inch Vizio TV.

As quantum-dot costs fall, added Kempt of quantum-dot supplier Nanosys, “it is now becoming possible for set makers to waterfall the technology across their product lineups.” As a result, by the end of 2018, “we’re beginning to see quantum-dot technology entering the mainstream market for TVs with several 65-inch TV products available below $1,500.” 

HDMI 2.1

At least one more company, LG, is adding select HDMI 2.1 features to TVs. All LG OLEDs and three top LCD series add 2.1’s variable refresh rate (VRR), auto low latency mode (ALLM), and eARC. Sony added them to select TVs in 2018.

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LONDON—New research from IHS Markit reveals the average screen size of TV units shipped in Q3 2018 grew larger than any previous quarter in more than a year.

Worldwide, shipments of TVs with screens 60 inches or larger in Q3 grew by 40 percent year over year, 10 percent higher than in recent quarters. In North America and emerging markets, the growth was even greater as prices hit new lows for 65- and 75-inch screen models, the research group found, the research group said.

“Each year during the holiday shopping season, brands and retailers try to push ever larger screen sizes to keep revenues growing and encourage adoption of value-added features like 4K and smart TV,” said Paul Gagnon, research and analysis executive directors at IHS Markit.

[Read: Nearly 6 Million 8K TVs To Ship In 2022, Says New Report]

This year promotional deals are helping to create greater interest in 65-inch TVs, which in turn is shifting the focus from sets with screens that are 50 inches or less, he added.

However, in Western Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa TV shipments were down by double digits in Q3 ’18 –off from the more than 7 percent increase for the regions in the first half of the year spurred on by seasonal promotions for the World Cup, IHS Markit said.

The share of 4K TVs shipped reached a record high of 44 percent in Q3. In terms of dollars and cents, they accounted for 71 percent of all TV revenue in the quarter. Shipments of 8K TVs remains small, with a single brand shipping in Japan and China. More brands are expected to ship 8K TVs by the end of the year, IHS Markit said.

In North America, the average price of a 65-inch 4K LCD TV fell from $1,256 to $1,100 in Q3, In China the average price was $928. Elsewhere the average price remained higher as a result of less competition and a smaller market size.

As relates to display technologies, OLED TV shipments fell slightly in the third quarter compared to Q2, while LCD TV shipments grew 14 percent quarter over quarter, and shipments of quantum dot LDC TV with screen sizes exceeding 60 inches increased to 663,000 units in Q3. Average OLED TV screen size also grew to more than 59 inches for the first time, as the share of 65-inch OLED TV shipments grew to a new high of more than 38 percent, the research group found.