LONDON—Ten years after hitting its peak, global pay-TV revenues are expected to be at their lowest since prior to 2010, with an estimated total revenue of $143 billion by 2026. The numbers come from Digital TV Research’s “Global Pay-TV Revenue Forecasts” report.

In 2016, global pay-TV revenue was at $201 billion. That has decreased nearly $30 billion in recent years, as global pay-TV revenue was at $173 billion across 138 countries in 2020. Now, Digital TV Research estimates a drop of another $30 billion between 2020 and 2026, when the projected global pay-TV revenue is $143 billion.

This drop would occur even as the total number of global pay-TV subscribers is expected to have a net gain of 15 million subscribers by 2026.

For 2021 alone, Digital TV Research forecasts that global pay-TV revenue will drop by about $8 billion, with 2021 global pay-TV revenue estimated to be nearly $165 billion.

The largest drop in revenue is coming from the U.S. After hitting a peak of $104 billion in 2015, the U.S. dropped to $80.3 billion in 2020. It is projected to lose another $6 billion in 2021 to $74.4 billion, and by 2026 see its pay-TV revenue fall to $57.4 billion.

Most other countries—77 of the 138 covered by Digital TV Research—are projected to also see less pay-TV revenue by 2026. One that is expected to see growth is India, which is projected to grow from $5 billion in 2020 to $5.6 billion in 2026.

In addition, global satellite TV revenues are expected to drop $16 billion, digital cable down $12 billion and analog cable down $2 billion.

For more information, visit Digital TV Research’s website.

LONDON—Cord-cutting is spreading beyond the U.S. borders with declines in pay TV subscriptions touching 13 other markets, says a new report from market analyst IHS Markit.

In addition to the U.S. subscription falloff, the report, “Global Cord-Cutting Tracker 2017,” identifies declines in Brazil, Mexico, Hong Kong, Canada, Sweden, Denmark, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Israel, Venezuela and Ireland.

Six of the 14 markets experiencing subscriber losses also recorded declining revenue last year. However, the U.S., Brazilian, Mexican, Swedish, Japanese, New Zealand, Norwegian and Venezuelan markets were able to compensate for subscriber losses by increasing what they charge remaining customers, according to the report.

[Read: Paywizard: Cord-Cutting Trend Offset By 'Pay-TV Polygamists']

For example, the U.S. loss of 3.3 million pay TV subscribers last year was offset by upsells and price increase that ended up generating more revenue for pay TV operators, says IHS Markit.

2017 saw the first pay TV subscription decline in Latin America since 2002. While cord-cutting contributed to the loss, economic difficulties played an important role in the subscription losses in Brazil (down 617,000) and Mexico (down 192,000). In Venezuela, 16,000 subscriptions were cancelled as the country’s financial crisis worsened, says the report.

Overall, North America suffered the biggest-ever decline in annual pay TV subscriptions with 3.5 million customers evaporating. Since 2012, the region has seen a decline of 7.1 million subscribers, says the report.

By way of comparison, Netflix and other OTT subscription services have seen an increase of 101.3 million subscribers for the same period. More than 26 million OTT subscriptions were added in 2017 alone.

The sting of cord-cutting for pay TV providers extends beyond cable TV. Satellite TV subscription services in several regions are suffering, too. In both North and Latin America last year, satellite TV subscriptions declined more than any other platform. In North America, 1.8 million satellite pay TV subscriptions disappeared, while Latin America experienced a decline of 882,,000, says the report.

[Read: Millions Flee Pay-TV; Revenues Slide, Say Researchers]

One attempt to stop the bleeding has been the launch of standalone streaming services by pay TV operators that compete with Netflix, Amazon Prime Video and other OTT services. However, these services typically cost less than tradition pay TV subscriptions, have a lower average revenue per user and are worth less to providers, says Ted Hall, director of research and analysis for TV and video and IHS Markit.

Over the next five years, IHS Markit forecasts a net decline of 8.5 million pay TV subscriptions in North America as cord-cutting continues. However, Brazil pay TV subscriptions are expected to grow as the nation’s economy strengthens.

OTT subscription growth is expected to outstrip that of pay TV everywhere except for the Middle East and Africa for the period, says the report. Overall, 409 million OTT subscriptions will be added around the world through the end of 2022, with the Asia-Pacific region accounting for nearly 66 percent of the growth, the report says. 

Click on the Image to Enlarge

MIDDLESEX, ENGLAND—Total global pay-TV subscribers have now reached 969 million, according to the latest Digital TV Research report.

According to the Global Pay-TV Subscriber Databook, 254 million additional pay-TV subscribers (up by 35 percent) signed up between 2010 and 2016 to take the global total to 969 million.

Digital cable TV created the most additions by platform—at 256 million between 2010 and 2016. However, analog cable TV lost 218 million subscribers. There were 76 million extra subs for IPTV to nearly quintuple its total. Satellite TV added 77 million and pay-DTT gained five million.

Digital pay-TV rocketed from 380 million subscribers in 2010 onto 852 million at end-2016.

The report found that Asia Pacific is the world’s largest pay-TV subscriber region; contributing 60 percent to the global total. China supplies about a third of the world’s pay-TV subscribers, with 313 million by end-2016.

For more information from the report, click here.

This story was originally published on TVT sister publication TVB Europe.