In the race to grow the biggest subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) customer base before the start of the next decade, Netflix is the odds-on favorite, according to a newly released forecast from Digital TV Research.

The forecast, part of the research organization’s “SVOD Forecasts Update” report estimates Netflix will maintain its top spot among SVOD services by adding 44 million subscribers between 2023 and 2029, taking its total to 298 million.

Amazon will see its Amazon Prime subscriber base grow to 269 million, and Disney+ will garner 192 million subscribers in 2029 as a result of less investment and uptake in the Asia-Pacific region, assuming that Hotstar will continue as part of the Disney stable, the researcher said.  

They will be followed by Paramount+ at 89 million, HBO at 68 million and Apple TV+ at 30 million, according to the forecast. Together the six U.S.-based SVOD platforms will have 946 million subscribers by 2029, up from 751 million this year. Collectively, they will increase their subscriber numbers by 196 million, it said.

The increase reflects the forecasted strength in SVOD growth around the world during the period with total subscriptions growing 321 million by 2029 to 1.79 billion, it said.

In the United States, SVOD subscribers will climb by 30 million to 148 million in 2029, and China will nearly reach the 400 million subscriber level, it found. 

The report is available online from Digital TV Research. 

A new study from Digital TV Research is estimating that global FAST revenues for TV series and movies will reach $17 billion across 138 countries in 2029, up from $8 billion in 2023. 

The U.S. will contribute 38% to the 2029 total; down from 56% in 2023, as revenue from international markets become more important, the study noted. 

Overall, global FAST revenues will increase by $9.4 billion between 2023 and 2029, with the U.S. supplying $2.1 billion in additional revenues to reach $6.5 billion. By 2029, the US will be the only country generating more than $1 billion in FAST revenues. The UK and Canada will be close to $1 billion, with these three countries taking nearly half of the world’s total.

Much of the revenue will remain concentrated in a few companies. Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, explained that “Pluto TV, Roku Channel and Samsung TV Plus will account for nearly half the global FAST revenues by 2029. The rest of the FAST market will remain fragmented, with far less globalization than in the SVOD sector.”

For more information on the Global FAST Forecasts report, contact: Simon Murray, at simon@digitaltvresearch.com or at +44 20 8248 5051.

HARROW, U.K.—The growth of AVOD revenues for TV series and movies is beginning to slow, but despite the deceleration will reach $69 billion worldwide by 2029, an increase of $30 billion from the forecasted $39 billion this year, according to the Global AVOD Forecast report released today by Digital TV Research.

The United States will account for 31% of the 2029 AVOD total, a decline of 40% from its portion of the total in 2023, indicating other countries are growing faster. Overall, U.S. AVOD revenues will increase by $6 billion between 2023 and 2029, with China adding about half that amount, the forecast said. 

“These forecasts are a lot lower than our previous edition due to lower ad growth and as platforms have delayed and/or scaled back their expansion plans. Most hybrid AVOD-SVOD tiers offered will be in developed markets. Few platforms want to risk antagonizing the investment community by expanding these services into developing markets where the rewards are lower,” said Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research.

More information on the report is available online.

Global pay TV revenues peaked in 2016 at $199 billion but are expected to fall to $125 billion in 2028, down from $151 billion in 2022, despite the number of pay TV subscribers remaining at just under 1 billion.

That’s the conclusion from U.K. researcher Digital TV Research, which estimates that pay TV revenues will fall by $26 billion between 2022 and 2028. Satellite TV revenues will drop by $12 billion, with digital cable down by $13 billion. Analog cable will lose a further $1 billion. IPTV will be flat. Revenues will decline in 71 of the 138 countries between 2022 and 2028.

The U.S. pay TV’s share in the global TV market will also decline, according to Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research. “U.S. pay TV revenues peaked at $101 billion in 2011,” Murray said. “Its total will drop from $65 billion in 2022 to $46 billion in 2028. The U.S. will still account for 37% of global revenues by 2028, which is down from 43% in 2022.”

Streaming services that provide ad-supported video on demand services along with traditional subscription-based services will dominate the streaming landscape over the next five years according to a new report from Digital TV Research.

The researcher predicts that global SVOD subscriptions will increase by 428 million between 2022 and 2028 to  reach 1.76 billion, “showing that there is still plenty of growth left,” it said.

With Netflix’s introduction of its lower-tier cost ad-supported streaming service launched last month, two of the most dominant streaming services—Netflix and Disney+—both now offer hybrid AVOD-SVOD services and are expected to continue that dominance through 2028, Digital TV Research said, adding that viewers that subscribe to such hybrid AVOD-SVOD subscriptions will comprise the majority of their subscription bases in five years.  

“We estimate that  Netflix will provide its hybrid AVOD-SVOD tier in 85 countries by 2028, with Disney+  in 91 countries, HBO in 55 and Paramount+ in 56,” said Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research. “These include pan-regional  services in Spanish-speaking Latin America and also in the Arabic-speaking  countries.” 

These four platforms collectively will have 372 million hybrid AVOD-SVOD  subscribers by 2028—or 56% of their total subscriber base.  

Given that Disney+ subscribers in most markets are expected to convert  automatically to the hybrid AVOD-SVOD tier, the platform will have 206 million subs  to this tier by 2028—or 88% of its total. At the other end of the scale, 24% of Netflix’s  total subscribers will pay for the hybrid AVOD-SVOD tier by 2028—or 63 million.  

Murray continued: “Netflix has a large base of SVOD-only subscribers. Most of  these subscribers will remain on these plans, despite the AVOD-SVOD tier being  considerably cheaper. The hybrid tier will appeal most to developing countries  where disposable incomes are lower. The hybrid tier will also be attractive to new  subscribers that do not have legacy SVOD-only subscriptions.” 

A new report from U.K. researcher Digital TV Research predicts that the revenue growth rate from advertising-supported video on demand will exceed that of subscription video on demand over the next five years.  

According to Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, AVOD revenues from movies and TV series will reach $91 billion by 2028, up by $52 billion from $38 billion in 2022. SVOD revenues will climb by $29 billion between 2022 and 2028 to $132 billion. 

The top five countries will command two-thirds of global revenues by 2028. OTT revenues will exceed $1 billion in 25 countries by 2028; up from 18 countries in 2022. The US will remain the dominant territory by some distance. Its share of global revenues will be 42% by 2028. U.S. revenues will climb by $33 billion between 2022 and 2028 to reach $102 billion.

As new ad-supported streaming tiers from Netflix and Disney+ roll out, a new report from Digital TV Research predicts that global revenues from ad-supported video on demand (AVOD) for TV series and movies will reach $91 billion in 2028, up  from $38 billion in 2022. The top 10 countries will represent 81% of the world’s total  by 2028. 

By 2028, 15 platforms will generate AVOD revenues in excess of $1 billion,  including six global, five from the U.S. and three from China, the U.K. researcher said.  

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “An exciting development will be the global rollout of hybrid AVOD-SVOD tiers by major platforms such as Netflix, Disney+, HBO and Paramount+. These four platforms will  generate AVOD revenues of $22.6 billion by 2028—or a quarter of the world’s total.” 

As the market for subscription video services (SVOD, aka Netflix, Hulu, Apple TV+. etc.) continues to adjust to slower growth with the merger of HBO Max and Discovery+ and Netflix’s launch of an ad-supported subscription tier, one research firm thinks the trend will continue, resulting in “flat” revenue growth over the next five years.

Despite being the world’s most mature market, U.S. SVOD revenues will grow by $14 billion from $43 billion in 2021 to $56 billion in 2024. However, growth will be almost flat from 2024 to 2027 due to price competition and lower ARPUs from Netflix’s hybrid AVOD-SVOD tier says European research firm Digital TV Research. 

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research thinks that Netflix will remain the SVOD revenue winner with the launch of its ad-supported subscription tier later this year. Murray predicts that Netflex will lose $1.4 billion in SVOD revenues between 2022 and 2027 due to lower ARPUs from 2023, but that it “will more than recoup these SVOD revenue losses with AVOD sales.”

Netflix will have 63 million subscribers by 2027—down by 4 million on 2021. Hulu, Disney+, HBO and Paramount+ will each boast 40-50 million subscribers by 2027. Some consolidation—mergers and closures—is likely, the research firm concluded. 

For more information on the North America SVOD Forecasts report, contact: Simon Murray, simon@digitaltvresearch.com.

LONDON—A new report from Digital TV Research is predicting that global OTT revenue from TV episodic series and movies  will continue to grow rapidly, jumping from $135 billion in 2021 to $224 billion in 2027. About $21 billion will be added in 2022 alone.

Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, explained that “the U.S. will command 45% of global revenues by 2027. We forecast that U.S. revenues will climb by $45 billion between 2021 and 2027 to reach $106 billion.”

The study also is predicting that SVOD revenue will climb by $48 billion between 2021 and 2027 to total $136 billion. AVOD revenues will increase by $37 billion between 2021 and 2027 to reach $70 billion.

From the 138 countries covered, the top five will command 65% of global OTT revenues by 2027. OTT revenues will exceed $1 billion in 25 countries by 2027; up from 17 countries in 2021.

For more information on the "Global OTT TV and Video Forecasts" report, contact Simon Murray, simon@digitaltvresearch.com, tel: +44 20 8248 5051.

A new report from Digital TV Research predicts that revenues for ad-supported video-on demand worldwide will reach $70 billion by 2027, more than double the $33 billion revenues logged in 2921. Of the 138 countries covered in the survey, 13 will generate more than $1 billion by 2027, compared to only five countries in 2021. 

The five top countries in order of predicted revenues include: U.S., China, U.K., Japan, and India. 

The report reflects recent trends among the world's largest streaming services that have announced plans to launch ad-supported tiers. Disney+, which has been focusing on developing its own ad technology, announced in March that it was going to introduce ads in an effort to squeeze out more revenues per subscriber and Netflix, in response to sagging subscription numbers, also announced its plans for an ad-supported tier last month. 

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “U.S. AVOD will grow  by $19 billion to $31 billion by 2027—remaining the largest country by far. The US  has the world’s most sophisticated advertising industry by some distance, plus  AVOD choice is greater in the U.S. than anywhere else. The U.S. will account for 46%  of the global total by 2027, up from 39% in 2021.” 

Second-placed China slumped in 2020 due to its economic downturn and it will take  until 2024 for China to better its 2019 total, the report noted. In 2021, the government clamped down  on fan-based culture, which resulted in far fewer reality shows from the OTT  platforms—and less viewer demand. 

LONDON—A new report for Digital TV Research is forecasting 19 million more pay TV subscribers across 138 countries between 2021 and 2027, but revenues will decline by $25 billion over the same period, as cord cutting in the richer countries with higher sub fees will reduce average revenue per subscriber (ARPU).

Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, explained that “between 2021 and 2027, 86 countries will add pay TV subs and 52 countries will lose subscribers. Most of the countries gaining pay TV subscribers are developing nations, with low ARPUs. The U.S. will be the biggest loser – down by 12 million subscribers.”

The report is also predicting that IPTV will add 79 million subscribers globally between 2021 and 2027 to take its total to 439 million. Satellite TV will lose 10 million subscribers between 2021 and 2027. 

Revenues will decline in 70 of the 138 countries between 2021 and 2027. The U.S. will fall by $19 billion. Global satellite TV revenues will drop by $14 billion, with digital cable down by $10 billion. Analog cable will lose $1 billion. IPTV will grow slightly. 

For more information on the Global Pay TV Forecasts report, please contact: Simon Murray, simon@digitaltvresearch.com, Tel: +44 20 8248 5051 

LONDON—A new forecast from Digital TV Research is predicting that gross SVOD subscriptions in the U.S. will climb from 354 million at the end of 2021 to 458 million in 2027, when about 86% of TV households will subscribe to at least one SVOD platform. 

In 2027, the average SVOD household will pay for 4.37 SVOD platforms.

The forecast is for SVOD services offering movies, linear channels and TV episodes but excludes sports and other types of services.  

In terms of capturing a share of the 104 million new SVOD subs, Digital TV research is predicting that Netflix will only add 2 million subscribers between 2021 and 2027 while newer platforms such as Disney+ (12 million additions), Paramount+ (an extra 26 million) and HBO Max (up by 31 million) will be the big gainers.

“Some claimed recently that the US SVOD market was at a saturation point,” said Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research. “Although we expect some deceleration for more established players, there is still plenty of growth to be had for the younger platforms such as Disney+, Paramount+ and HBO Max.”

More information on the North America OTT TV & Video Forecasts report is available by contacting Simon Murray at simon@digitaltvresearch.com or +44 20 8248 5051. 

LONDON—A new forecast from Digital TV Research is predicting that pay TV sub losses will be lower in the next five years than they have been in recent years. But that pay TV penetration will still drop below 50% in 2026 and that pay TV subs will fall to about 60 million in 2027. 

That marks a huge decline from 2010, when pay TV penetration stood at 91% and there were 105 million pay TV subs, and a significant decline from 2021, when pay TV penetration was about 60%. 

It also highlights a huge financial loss for operators. The report noted that pay TV revenues peaked in 2014, at $101 billion. A $48 billion decline is forecast between 2014 and 2027; halving the total to $53 billion.

The author of the report, Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, explained that  “The U.S. lost 6 million pay TV subscribers each year from 2019 to 2021. Losses will decrease from now on, but the 2027 total will be 12 million lower than 2021.”

The number of households without a pay TV subscription will rocket from 11.34 million in 2010 to 72.86 million in 2027 due mainly to cord-cutting.

For more information on the “North America Pay TV Forecasts” report, contact: Simon Murray, at simon@digitaltvresearch.com.

LONDON—A new report from Digital TV research is forecasting that SVOD subscriptions in the U.S. will increase by one third (33%) from 338 million at the end of 2021 to to 450 million in 2026. 

The forecast is for SVOD services offering movies, linear channels and TV episodes and excludes sports services. 

In 2026, the report predicts that about 87% of TV households (106 million) will subscribe to at least one SVOD platform, up from 82% of TV households (99 million) subscribing to at least one SVOD platform by end-2021.

The report also projects that Amazon will be the largest SVOD provider in the U.S. in 2026 with 101.4 million, followed by Netflix (69.9 million), Disney+ (59.5 million), Hulu (54.3 million), HBO Max (53 million), Paramount+ (22.4 million), Peacock (16.4 million), Starz (15.9 million), Showtime (12.5 million and Apple TV+ (9.0 million).

Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, noted that “we have substantially revised our forecasts to reflect recent market developments. For instance, we have markedly increased our subscriber numbers for Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max and the `others’ category.”

The report also predicts that the average SVOD household will pay for 4.26 SVOD platforms by 2026, up from 3.42 SVOD services at the end of 2021.

For more information on the `North America SVOD Forecasts’ report, contact: Simon Murray, simon@digitaltvresearch.com, Tel: +44 20 8248 5051.

HARROW, U.K.—A new report finds that the global pay TV business is fragmenting with the top 50 pay TV operators serving about 62% of the world’s 1.02 billion pay TV subs in 2026, down from 64% in the middle of 2020, according to Digital TV Research. 

Its new "Global Pay TV Operator Forecasts" is predicting that the top 10 global operators will lose about 11 million subs over that five year period, dropping to 412 million in 2026 and the top 50 operators will lose about 20 million, declining to about 627 million in 2026.

In contrast, the report predicts that the operators outside the top 100 will gain subs. 

Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, noted that “most industries consolidate as they mature. The pay TV sector is doing the opposite – fragmenting. Most of the subscriber growth will take place in developing countries where operators are not controlled by larger corporations.”

By the end of 2020, 13 operators had more than 10 million pay TV subscribers. China and India will continue to dominate the top pay TV operator rankings, partly as their subscriber bases climb but also due to the US operators losing subscribers, the report noted. 

Between 2020 and 2026, 307 of the 503 operators (61%) will gain subscribers, with 13 showing no change and 183 losing subscribers (36%). 

In 2020, 28 pay TV operators earned more than $1 billion in revenues, but this will drop to 24 operators by 2026, the report also predicated. 

The  "Global Pay TV Operator Forecasts" report covers 503 operators on 726 platforms (132 digital cable, 116 analog cable, 279 satellite, 142 IPTV and 57 DTT) across 135 countries. 

LONDON—Ten years after hitting its peak, global pay-TV revenues are expected to be at their lowest since prior to 2010, with an estimated total revenue of $143 billion by 2026. The numbers come from Digital TV Research’s “Global Pay-TV Revenue Forecasts” report.

In 2016, global pay-TV revenue was at $201 billion. That has decreased nearly $30 billion in recent years, as global pay-TV revenue was at $173 billion across 138 countries in 2020. Now, Digital TV Research estimates a drop of another $30 billion between 2020 and 2026, when the projected global pay-TV revenue is $143 billion.

This drop would occur even as the total number of global pay-TV subscribers is expected to have a net gain of 15 million subscribers by 2026.

For 2021 alone, Digital TV Research forecasts that global pay-TV revenue will drop by about $8 billion, with 2021 global pay-TV revenue estimated to be nearly $165 billion.

The largest drop in revenue is coming from the U.S. After hitting a peak of $104 billion in 2015, the U.S. dropped to $80.3 billion in 2020. It is projected to lose another $6 billion in 2021 to $74.4 billion, and by 2026 see its pay-TV revenue fall to $57.4 billion.

Most other countries—77 of the 138 covered by Digital TV Research—are projected to also see less pay-TV revenue by 2026. One that is expected to see growth is India, which is projected to grow from $5 billion in 2020 to $5.6 billion in 2026.

In addition, global satellite TV revenues are expected to drop $16 billion, digital cable down $12 billion and analog cable down $2 billion.

For more information, visit Digital TV Research’s website.

LONDON—The popularity of streaming isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, according to Digital TV Research. The company’s latest report projects that by 2026, there will be 1.495 billion SVOD subscriptions across 138 countries.

Global SVOD subscriptions will grow by 591 million between 2020 and 2026, per Digital TV Research’s projection. 2020 will represent the peak year, with the addition of 201 million subscriptions. Global subscription numbers will cross the 1 billion mark in 2021.

The 1.495 billion subscription number in 2026 would represent a 65% increase from 2020, Digital TV Research notes.

The statistics point out that the number of SVOD subscriptions are growing at a faster rate than the number of SVOD subscribers, meaning that the growth is being spurred by subscribers adding additional services. In 2020, the average number of subscriptions a SVOD subscriber had was 1.74; by 2026 that number is projected to reach 2.14.

Per Digital TV Research principal analyst Simon Murray, there will be 718 million SVOD subscribers in 2026, up 35% from 518 million at the end of 2020. The 2026 total would represent 39% of all TV households.

As far as who is leading the way in SVOD subscriptions, the U.S. is expected to surpass China in 2021 as the subscription leader. Together, the U.S. and China will make up 48% of the global total in 2026, however this is down from 59% in 2020. Other countries eating into the U.S. and China’s streaming dominance include India, which is estimated to nearly triple its SVOD subscriptions to 155 million in 2026; that would be about 10% of the world’s total.

For more information, visit Digital TV Research’s website.

LONDON—The trend of subscriber losses is not expected to change for the pay-TV industry in the U.S. anytime soon. According to a new projection from Digital TV Research, between 2020 and 2026, the U.S. will have a net loss of 16 million pay-TV subscribers, resulting in 63.9 million subscribers by 2026.

Of the 42 countries that are estimated to suffer a net loss over that period, the U.S. is expected to take the biggest hit. However, the overall global pay-TV market will increase from 2020-2026 by 15 million, per Digital TV Research, with 92 countries projected to see a growth of pay-TV subscribers.

With the additional 15 million subscribers, global pay-TV subscriptions will reach 1.02 billion in 2026. China will lead the way with 317.5 million, even though it is one of the countries that will lose subscribers between 2020 and 2026, with OTT platforms helping to push 10 million away from pay-TV subscriptions. 

India is expected to be the largest growing country, adding around 21 million subscribers for a total of 180.7 million in 2026.

The 1.02 billion subscribers in 2026 will consist of 378 million IPTV subscribers (up 63 million from 2020), 412 million cable TV subscribers (down 46 million), 203 million satellite TV subscribers (down 8 million) and 25 million pay DTT subscribers (up 6 million).

For more information, visit www.digitaltvresearch.com.  

LONDON—It doesn’t look like consumers will stop paying for streaming anytime soon, as global OTT revenue is projected to nearly double from 2020 to 2026, according to new forecasts from Digital TV Research.

Per Digital TV Research, OTT revenue across the globe (138 countries) totaled $106 billion in 2020. By 2026, that number is projected to reach $210B, with an increase of $23 billion estimated to take place in 2021 alone.

The top five countries in OTT revenue are expected to command two-thirds of these revenues by 2026. This is actually down from the 71% that the top five represented in 2020, which indicates that the rest of the world is growing in their OTT spending.

The U.S. will continue to be the biggest OTT spender, with Digital TV Research Principal Analyst Simon Murray estimating that the U.S. will hold a 42% share of global revenues in 2026. Revenues are estimated to grow from $42 billion in 2020 to $88 billion in 2026.

China is expected to be among the biggest growers in OTT revenue, with a forecasted growth of about $8.4 billion to bring its total to $24 billion. Japan is expected to nearly double (adding $4.5 billion) for an estimated total of $9.2 billion, while India is likely to triple by adding $4.7 billion for a total of $6.7 billion.

Drilling down into OTT specifics, SVOD revenue is expected to climb by $59 billion between 2020 and 2026, which would bring it to a total of $126 billion. However, its share of the market will dip from 62% to 60%, as ad-supported AVOD platforms are projected to see a revenue increase of $39 billion that would bring its total to $66 billion, representing 32% of the market. AVOD had 26% share of the market in 2020, according to Digital TV Research.

The full report is available from Digital TV Research. 

LONDON—OTT revenue in North America is showing no signs of slowing, according to Digital TV Research, as by 2026 it will generate a projected revenue of $94 billion, nearly double the amount of revenue for 2020 ($49 billion). OTT revenue accounts for both TV episodes and movies.

The U.S. is projected to make up a majority of that revenue. In 2020, the U.S. accounted for about $46 billion of the $49 billion in total revenue. By 2026, that number will increase to $88 billion, per Digital TV Research. Canada is expected to double its OTT revenue between 2020 and 2026, to $5.4 billion.

In just 2021, Digital TV Research projects that OTT revenue will increase by about $10 billion, thanks in large part to SVOD. In 2020, SVOD accounted for $32.5 billion in North America’s total OTT revenue; for 2021 that number is expected to increase to $40.15 billion. By 2026, SVOD revenue is estimated to be generating $54.39 billion.

However, the largest OTT growth sector will be AVOD. AVOD’s 2020 revenue was $10.69 billion. It will jump nearly $3 billion according to Digital TV Research’s 2021 forecast. However, projections for AVOD revenue skyrocket to $32.61 billion by 2026.

For more information, visit www.digitaltvresearch.com.  

LONDON—From 2010 to 2020, cord-cutting emerged as a major issue for the pay-TV industry, as 27 million North American subscribers cancelled their services, according to Digital TV Research. However, while the numbers are still trending downward, the rate of cord-cutting is going to slow over the next few years.

In 2010 there were 116 million pay-TV subscribers across the U.S. and Canada with either pay satellite, IPTV or cable services. As of 2020, that number had dropped to about 89 million, including losing 6 million in both 2019 and 2020, Digital TV Research reports.

PLUS: Cord Cutting Nearly Doubled for the Big Four U.S. Pay-TV Providers in 2020

By 2026, Digital TV Research estimates that North American pay-TV subscribers will total 74 million. This would represent a loss of nearly 43 million subscribers from 2010-2026 (41 million in the U.S., 2 million in Canada), but the rate of decrease is expected to slow over the next five years.

“The worst of the cord-cutting is over,” said Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research. “Declines will be lower from 2021, falling by 16 million in total between 2020 and 2026. ‘Only’ 5 million digital cable TV subscribers will be lost. Satellite TV will fall by 7.5 million and IPTV by 3.4 million subscribers.”

Additional findings from Digital TV Research’s report includes that pay-TV penetration from 2010-2026 will drop from 90.5% to 53.6%. Also, after pay-TV revenues peaked in 2015 at $111 billion, by 2026 they will be at $62 billion, a decrease of $49 billion.

For more information, visit www.digitaltvresearch.com.  

LONDON—The global streaming industry will have reached $100 billion by 2025, according to the latest report from Digital TV Research. That would represent a doubling of its value from the $50 billion that SVOD revenues generated in 2019.

While the U.S. is projected to remain the leader in SVOD revenue—growing $18 billion from 2019 to 2025 to bring its total to $42 billion—its share of the global revenue will fall from 49% to 42%. This is because 16 countries are expected to exceed $1 billion in SVOD revenue in 2025, up from eight in 2019.

In terms of global subscribers, Digital TV research estimates a growth of 529 million between 2019 and 2025, bringing the global total to 1.17 billion. China and the U.S. are expected to make up 51% of this global total. However, that number is actually down from 2019, when China and the U.S. made up 63% of all subscribers. Like with revenue, Digital TV Research points to this as an example of the growing presence of SVOD in other countries.

While more countries are taking up the streaming market, by 2025 three streaming platforms are likely to control half of the world’s subscriptions, per Digital TV Research—Netflix, Disney+ and Amazon Prime Video. Netflix is projected to lead the way in subscribers with 263 million, up 91 million from 2019, but Disney+ is forecasted to have the biggest growth, with an estimated 142 million subscribers signing up for the streaming platform, bringing its total to 172 million subscribers. Those numbers for Disney+ are actually a lowering of expectations, according to Digital TV Research.

“We believe that Disney+ will have a huge impact. However, we have lowered our 2025 forecasts by 30 million since our May edition,” said Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research. “Analysis of Disney’s June results showed a rapid deceleration in subscriber additions after an initial spike in its early launch countries. We expect this to be repeated elsewhere.”

In addition, a third of the world’s TV households are expected to have at least one SVOD subscription by 2025, up from a quarter of homes at the end of 2019, per Digital TV Research.

The full report is available through Digital TV Research’s website. 

LONDON—The global OTT market continues to grow, in large part because of the popularity of SVOD services, new and old, according to a new report from Digital TV Research.

Global OTT revenue reached $83 billion in 2019. That number is up from $67 billion in 2018 and $50 billion in 2017. Of the $16 billion increase in revenue, SVOD services accounted for $12 billion, per Digital TV Research. Overall, SVOD made up 58% of total revenue ($48 billion), up  from 41% back in 2015.

The strength of SVOD last year came not only from continued growth of popular services like Netflix and Amazon Prime Video, but also the launch of some new SVOD services like Apple TV+ and, particularly, Disney+.

Digital TV Research looked at data from 138 countries for its report. The top five countries represented 72% of the global OTT revenue for 2019. Thirteen countries exceeded $1 billion in OTT revenue in 2019.

The U.S. accounted for half of the revenue growth, adding $8 billion to its total in 2019, while China’s revenue grew by $1 billion, said Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research.

For access to the full Digital TV Research report, visit www.digitaltvresearch.com.  

MIDDLESEX, U.K.—Global gross subscriptions to subscription video-on-demand streaming services grew by 28% to around 642 million, the U.K.’s Digital TV Research reports.

Stripping away promotions and drilling down to the nitty gritty of who actually paid for their SVOD services, the research company said net SVOD subscribers increased by 16% to 403 million. The average SVOD user paid for 1.59 subscription streaming services in 2019, up from 1.44 in 2018. 

Adding 43 million SVOD customers in 2019, the U.S. reclaimed its narrow lead from China in gross SVOD subscriptions—each country supports around 200 million, and together they control around 63% of the global SVOD market, Digital TV Research said. 

Here’s a chart for you to look at:

LONDON—The status of the global pay-TV market over the next few years depends on where operators currently stand, according to a new report from Digital TV Research. Those among the top global operators are expected to see negative or flat growth, while those outside the top 50 are projected to gain subscribers and increase revenue.

According to Digital TV Research, of the 502 operators across 135 countries that make up the Global Pay-TV Operator Forecast, two-thirds will gain subscribers between 2019 and 2025, while 59% are expected to increase their revenue over the same period.

At the end of 2019, Digital TV Research says that the top 50 pay-TV operators accounted for 46% of the world’s pay-TV subscribers. But over the next five years, the forecast has the top 10 operators losing subscribers and the other 40 in the top 50 remaining flat, while those outside those top spots are expected to gain subscribers.

For those outside the top 50, Digital TV Research projects eight will add at least 1 million subscribers by 2025; leading operators will be China Unicorn (19.96 million projected new subscribers) and China Telecom (18.52 million). The report also forecasts eight operators will lose 1 million or more subscribers—the largest is expected to be China Radio and TV (37 million subscribers lost), but the next five are all companies from the U.S.

PLUS: U.S. Pay TV Revenue Projected to Drop 35% to $57.4B by 2025

While there will be wide ranging swings of losses and gains, Digital TV Research sees growth for the global pay-TV market. “By end-2019, 13 operators had more than 10 million paying subscribers,” said Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research. “This will reach 14 operators by 2025.”

For more information, visit www.digitaltvresearch.com.  

LONDON—Global pay-TV revenue will fall to $150 billion in 2025, from a peak of $202 billion in 2016, despite the addition of 35 million additional subscribers, according to the latest report from Digital TV Research.

The research company predicts pay-TV revenue declines in 61 countries from 2019 - 2025. And in the U.S., it’s forecasting a revenue drop over that five-year span of 35%, to around $57.4 billion.

A year ago, Digital TV Research projected that U.S. pay TV revenue would decrease to about $75.7 billion by 2024—the domestic industry’s projected rate of decline has clearly picked up, at least in the eyes of Digital TV Research. 

PLUS: Dish, DirecTV Among Hardest Hit in Q1 Pay-TV Decline

According to Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, the “losses” are largely accounted for, in many cases, by telecom service providers shifting their priorities to broadband products

“Much of the losses are down to subscribers converting from standalone TV to a bundle where they pay more overall to the operator but less on TV services. Cord-cutting is also a major problem, especially in the U.S.,” Murray said. 

The research company also predicted U.S. satellite TV revenue to decline by $18 billion from 2019-2025. 

“Our forecasts assume that professional sports will restart in August following relaxations in the COVID-19 lockdown. If this does not happen, then pay-TV will experience considerable churn,” Murray added.

This story originally appeared on TVT's sister publication Next|TV.

MIDDLESEX, U.K.—OTT revenue is expected to substantially increase over the next few years, with the latest projections from Digital TV Research estimating that the OTT market will reach $167 billion in revenue by 2025.

Those results would be double what OTT did in 2019 ($83 billion). Digital TV Research projects that $16 billion alone will be added in 2020.

SVOD is slated to continue as the main driver of OTT revenue, representing 58%; that would see a growth of $50 billion in 2019 to $98 billion in 2025. AVOD, meanwhile, would be the next biggest contributor, with an expected revenue of $54 billion in 2025, up from the $24 billion it earned in 2019.

Digital TV Research says that two-thirds of the OTT revenue will come from the top five countries, a number that is actually down from the 72% the top five accounted for in 2019.

The U.S. will be the largest provider of OTT revenue in 2025 ($68 billion), followed by China ($19 billion).

While coronavirus has led more viewers to streaming content, Digital TV Research has said that the pandemic is hurting the AVOD market, at least for the time being, according to Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research.

For more information, visit Digital TV Research’s website. 

LONDON—Netflix, Disney+, YouTube TV and other popular streaming services aren’t going anywhere in the U.S.. In fact, according to a new report from Digital TV Research, SVOD platforms are projected to cross the 300 million subscriber milestone by 2025.

This estimate comes from Digital TV Research’s “North America OTT TV & Video Forecasts” report, with the number of subscriptions based on SVOD platforms offering movies, linear channels and TV episodes, while excluding other type of platforms, including sports platforms.

As of 2019, per Digital TV Research, there are 199 million U.S. SVOD subscriptions. From now until 2025, that number is projected to rise by 108 million to 307 million. This will be sparked by households increasing the average number of paid SVOD platforms they have from 2.28 in 2019 to 3.28 in 2025.

 There are a significant number of SVOD options for consumers to meet these expectations, established and new. The largest growth is projected to come from services like Disney+ (more than 30 million subscribers), Hulu (13 million subscribers), HBO Now (12 million) and the soon to be launched Peacock (12 million)—another new service, HBO Max, was not included in estimations. Netflix and Amazon, however, remain the heavy-weights of the groups, with Netflix expected to have more than 65 million U.S. subscribers and Amazon surpassing 60 million U.S. subscribers by 2025.

“A dozen platforms will have more than 5 million paying subscribers by 2025—revealing just how far ahead in terms of choice the U.S. market is compared with the rest of the world,” said Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research.

For more information, visit www.digitaltvresearch.com.

MIDDLESEX, U.K.—The pay-TV heights of 2015 for North America are gone, and according to a new report from Digital TV Research, the $112 billion garnered in 2015 could drop to $62 billion by 2025.

These projections by Digital TV Research include pay-TV revenues from the U.S. and Canada for satellite TV, IPTV, digital cable TV and analog cable TV. None of these areas are immune from this forecasted $50 billion decline. Cable revenues are estimated to see a $22 billion drop—$3 billion from analog cable and 19 billion for digital; satellite will fall by $21 billion; IPTV by $7 billion.

“The loss of 42 million pay TV subscribers between 2010 and 2025 is mostly responsible for this decline,” said Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research. “Operators now put more emphasis on broadband connections than on traditional pay TV channels.”

Murray also alludes to consumers growing use of OTT platforms as an alternative to pay-TV, like Netflix, Disney+, Amazon Prime and others, which are often cheaper and allow for more control on how and when they can watch programs.

“The value of linear schedule for recorded programming is rapidly diminishing,” Murray said.

A separate report from Piplsay showed that 66% of Americans have access to OTT services.

Digital TV Research’s “North America Pay TV Forecasts” report can be acquired online.

MIDDLESEX, U.K.—With Disney+ now available, the much anticipated streaming service is expected to receive a lot of interest from subscribers. New projections from Digital TV Research show that by 2025, Disney+ will be the third most popular streaming service across the world, only trailing Netflix and Amazon.

Disney+, with its access to new and archived Disney-owned content that includes “Star Wars,” Marvel and other popular brands, is expected to build up a subscriber base of more than 101 million from its launch to 2025. Of the new streaming services launching—Apple TV+ and HBO Max—that puts it far ahead; Apple TV+ is projected to have 27 million subscribers, and HBO Max comes in at 30 million.

With established services Netflix and Amazon still leading the way (235 million and 135 million, respectively), the total global SVOD subscribers across the top five platforms will hit 529 million in 2025, a growth of 257 million subscribers.

Disney+ and the other new streaming services are grabbing the headlines, but Netflix’s reach will continue to grow over this period, especially beyond the U.S. Netflix’s subscriber base is expected to grow by 70 million by 2025, however only 6 million of those will come from the U.S. Digital TV Research points out that by 2025, only 29% of Netflix subscribers will be in the U.S. In comparison, for a newer service like HBO Max, 80% of its subscribers in 2025 are expected to be in the U.S.

These numbers do not take into account non-paying consumers, which Digital TV Research says could triple the subscriber numbers for the likes of Apple TV+ and HBO Max.

The full “SVOD Platform Forecast” is available on Digital TV Research’s website.

LONDON—While pay-TV services in the U.S. are in the middle of a battle for subscribers against the established and emerging streaming platforms, the global pay-TV industry continues to grow overall and has recently crossed a milestone. According to Digital TV Research, with the number of added subscribers throughout the world in 2018, the total number of pay-TV subscribers has surpassed 1 billion.

Estimates show that the total number of pay-TV subscribers increased by 26 million across 138 countries from 2017 to 2018. IPTV subscribers saw the biggest growth of 42 million, and the service now makes up a quarter of all pay-TV subscribers; it also surpassed satellite TV in total subscribers. Satellite TV still did see a growth of 2 million, as did DTT, which added 1 million subscribers.

Cable, however, suffered a net loss in 2018. Digital cable TV added 7 million subscribers, but analog loss 16 million. Cable still accounts for half of pay-TV subscribers, but that is down from its three-quarters share in 2010.

After peaking at $205 billion in 2016, global revenues fell to $199 billion in 2018, according to the report.

The full Pay-TV Databook is available here.

Global revenues from OTT/streaming operations topped $53 billion in 2017 and are expected to reach $69 billion in 2018, an increase of 33% according to researcher Digital TV Research, which predicts that OTT revenues will reach $123 billion by 2023.

The researcher’s Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts report—covering 138 countries—estimates that the top five countries will command 69% of worldwide revenues by 2023, down from 73% in 2017, showing that the rest of the world will experience faster growth than the top five, which includes, in order of market penetration: U.S., China, U.K., Japan and Germany.

OTT revenues will exceed $1 billion in 17 countries in 2023; up from 10 countries in 2017.

“No prizes for guessing that the U.S. will remain the dominant territory by some distance,’ said Simon Murray, principle analyst at Digital TV Research. “However, its share of global revenues will fall from 43% in 2017 to 37% by 2023. We forecast that revenues in the US will more than double between 2017 and 2023—adding nearly $25 billion to reach $48 billion.

The biggest growth will occur in China, where it’s expected that its share of the world’s total of OTT revenues will climb from 16% in 2017 to 20% in 2023, according to Digital TV Research.

Subscription video on demand services (i.e. Netflix, Amazon Prime), became the largest OTT revenue source in 2016 by overtaking ad-supported video on demand (i.e. Pluto TV). SVOD’s share of the total is expected to increase from 47% in 2017 to 53% in 2023, with revenues climbing by nearly $44 billion to $69 billion between 2017 and 2023. AVOD revenues will increase by $27 billion between 2017 and 2023 to a total of $47 billion (36% of total revenues). 

MIDDLESEX, England—The rise of OTT is not slowing down according to a new report from Digital TV Research, which projects the global online TV episodes and movie revenues to more than double from its 2018 numbers of $68 billion to $159 billion in 2024. That growth is expected to start in earnest in 2019, with $17 billion added to the total.

Digital TV Research gathered info from 138 countries for this report. Of those countries, the top five will contribute 68% of all global revenues by 2024, down from the 71% the top five countries provided in 2018. This signifies that more countries are boosting their OTT revenue, with 18 expected to exceed $1 billion in 2024—up from 10 in 2018.

Of all the countries, the U.S. is projected to remain at the top, with its global revenues coming just under 40%. In the five years covered in Digital TV Research’s report, the U.S. is forecasted to add nearly $34 billion dollars, bringing its total to $61 billion.

China is one of the top growers, however, with the country expected to add $15 billion over the same time frame, bringing its total to $27 billion. Combined, the U.S. and China would control 56% of the global total by 2024.

Additional findings included the growth of AVOD services. With a number of high-profile AVOD services expected to start in the near future, AVOD revenues will increase $34 billion between 2018 and 2024.

The full report can be viewed on Digital TV Research’s website.

The number of subscriptions to US SVOD services will reach 208 million by 2023 according to new figures from Digital TV Research. That would equate to an increase of 70 million subscribers compared to 2017's 132 million.

According to The North America OTT TV & Video Forecasts report 73.5 per cent of TV households (88.5 million) will subscribe to at least one SVOD platform by 2023.

This compares to 55.0 per cent of TV households (65.1 million) subscribing to at least one SVOD platform by end-2017.

Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research said: “Our SVOD forecasts include homes watching Amazon Prime Video as part of their Amazon Prime subscription."

Netflix will have 201 million streaming subscribers by 2023, up by 82 per cent from 111 million at the end of 2017.

This is according to a new Netflix Forecasts report from Digital TV Research, which predicts that about 28 million subscribers will be added in 2018 – making it the largest growth year ever, with lower growth expected thereafter.

North America and Western Europe will together supply 62 per cent of Netflix’s total subscriber base by 2023 – still dominant, but down from 76 per cent in 2017. Asia Pacific will boast fast growth by taking 14 per cent of the 2023 total. This represents 28 million subs; quadruple the 2017 figure.

[Read: ABI: 400M Worldwide Subscribe To OTT Video Services]

Although the number of international subs overtook US ones in 2017, the States will still contribute 44 per cent of subscribers by 2023 – and will add 16 million subs between 2017 and 2023.

Streaming subscription revenues for Netflix are predicted to climb by 155 per cent from $11.3 billion in 2017 to $28.8 billion in 2023. The top five countries will generate revenues of $16 billion in 2023 – or 56 per cent of Netflix’s global subscription revenues. The US will contribute $11.2 billion, with four other countries above $1 billion.

Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “These forecasts are a lot higher than the last edition of this report. Similar to many other analysts, we underestimated the fast take-up in international markets.”

ALEXANDRIA, VA.—Pay-TV revenue, household penetration and subscriptions in the U.S. are down and things don’t appear as if they will improve anytime soon, according to reports from three separate analysts.

A tally released this month by nScreenMedia finds that U.S. cable, satellite and telco TV services lost 3.5 million subscribers last year. Overall, 2017 proved to be the worst year ever for the traditional pay television industry, it said.

Another newly released report from Digital TV Research paints a similarly gloomy picture. According to its new North American Pay TV Forecast, the total number of U.S. pay TV subscribers dropped to 90.35 million, down 10 million from the industry’s high mark of 100.34 million in 2012. U.S. pay-TV household penetration is likewise on a downward trajectory. In 2013, 87.6 percent of households subscribed to pay TV, but by 2023 that figure is expected to decline to 66.7 percent.

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New data from Leichtman Research Group also shows rough seas for pay-TV, but smaller subscription declines. According to the research organization, the largest U.S. pay-TV providers lost nearly 1.5 million net video subscribers last year compared with a pro forma loss of about 760,000 in 2016—a 1.6 percent subscriber decline last year compared to a 0.8 percent drop in 2016.

"The pay-TV market saw net losses increase in 2017 and the continuation of a share shift from traditional services to newer internet-delivered services," said Bruce Leichtman, president and principal analyst for Leichtman Research Group.

According to Leichtman, the number of subscribers to the top pay-TV providers in the U.S. is 92.2 million. The top six cable companies accounted for 48.1 million video subscribers; satellite TV providers have 31.5 million; the top telephone companies have 9.2 million; and the top internet-delivered pay-TV services have about 3.4 million. A Leichtman chart itemizes the number of subscribers for top cable, satellite, phone (IPTV) and internet-delivered (vMVPD) TV as of the end of Q4 2017 as well as net subscriber additions in 2017.

The declines are taking a toll on revenue. In 2015, U.S. pay-TV revenues peaked at $101.71 billion but will decline by 26 percent to $75.1 billion in 2023, according to Digital TV Research’s new forecast. The slide in cable TV revenue, which began after its 2010 peak of $54.11 billion, will continue. Revenues will reach $36.75 billion in 2023, a drop of about 33 percent. Total subscribers will also drop by about 12 million from 2010 to 2023, the forecast said.

Satellite and IPTV services will suffer declines as well, although a good part of the decline is due to some operators, such as AT&T, shifting subscribers to aligned platforms. For instance, nScreen Media reports AT&T U-verse lost 17 percent of its subscriber base, which is largely due to the effort of the company to retire the service and direct subscribers to DIRECTV and DIRECTV Now. IPTV revenues reached their zenith in 2015 at $9.6 billion; however, they are expect to decline to $4.77 billion in 2013, the forecast said. In 2014, IPTV subscriptions topped at 12 million, but are forecast to decline to 6.26 million in 2023.

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Satellite pay-TV revenues are projected to fall 16 percent from $39.78 billion in 2017 to $33.61 billion in 2023. The number of subscribers, which dropped 3 million last year, will decline by another 4 million between 2017 and 2023, the forecast said. Both DISH with its vMVPD Sling TV and DIRECTV Now are having an impact on these numbers.

"Satellite TV services, DIRECTV and DISH TV, had more combined net losses in 2017 than in any previous year, yet these losses were offset by gains from their internet-delivered flanker brands, DIRECTV NOW and Sling TV,” said Leichtman.

While helpful, the growth of such virtual MVPDs won’t entirely make up for the drop off in revenue and subscribers, added Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research.