A new study from AdImpact indicates that vast sums are flowing into swing-state broadcasters as more than $1.8 billion has been spent on political ads in the presidential races between Super Tuesday on March 5 and election day Nov. 5.

Overall, the study found that $2.6 billion had been spent on political ads since March 5 and overall spending was highest in Pennsylvania, with Democrats airing $261.9 million in ads and Republicans airing $232.4 million.

The data, which is based on AdImpact tracking 384 unique broadcast political ads that aired some 1.5 million times during the period, reinforces data from recent earnings reports from station groups, as Scripps reported record Q3 revenue based on record levels of political advertising, and a study from The Myers Report, which estimates U.S. political ad spending for the 2024 campaign will top $12 billion.

The $12 billion figure—a 33% increase over the 2019-2020 election campaign—is part of an overall estimate of $18.2 billion that will be spent on reported and unreported political marketing investments during this election cycle, according to the Myers Report.

The massive spending levels in swing states are particularly evident the data for the last 60 days.

The AdImpact study found in the last 60 days alone, Pennsylvania led among the swing states with $264 million spent by presidential candidates and the groups backing them, followed by Michigan ($151 million), Georgia ($137 million), North Carolina ($109 million) and Arizona ($91 million).

Since July 22, Democratic groups spent $1.37 billion overall on the presidential race, giving them a $171 million advantage over Republican groups, with the campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris campaign spending $646.3 million versus $358.8 million by the campaign of former Preasident Donald Trump.

AdImpact also found that digital spending for political ads since July 22 hit $420 million, making up 18% of total presidential-campaign spending. Outside of X (formerly Twitter), Democratic advertisers have held significant spending advantages across social media platforms, the researcher said.

NEW YORK—A new report that studied more than 200 political ad campaigns in the first half of 2022 concludes that when it comes to achieving the best results from TV, politicians should spend 10-20% on campaign ads on streaming and the rest on traditional TV. 

The report from Effectv is based on data insights collected from nearly 20 million impressions and iterates that political advertisers who are still relying solely on TV— or, in particular, only news—are likely to be missing out on reaching voters. Advertisers will see the most success, according to the research, by optimizing their media plans across both TV and streaming to achieve the greatest reach.

These insights, spanning over 200 political advertising campaigns in the first half of 2022 during the primaries, uncover a formula that strikes a balance between TV and streaming advertising for maximized reach: Effectv recommends that political advertisers in particular allocate around 10-20% of their TV investment to ad-supported streaming with the remaining investment to traditional TV. While Effectv suggests that general advertisers attribute 20-30% of their total video investment to streaming, the recommendation is slightly lower when reaching likely voters, who, according to Comcast’s aggregated viewership data, are likely to spend more time with traditional TV.

“With midterms around the corner, advertisers need to pinpoint where they can optimize their budgets – across all mediums – and divide funding accordingly,” said Dan Sinagoga, Head of Political Sales at Effectv. “Balance is needed now more than ever, with political advertising spend set to hit a record of $9 billion this season, so it’s critical that advertisers plan and optimize campaigns holistically across all screens to reach audiences regardless of how they are consuming TV content.”

According to the study, in the 2022 primaries, 9% of frequent voters were reached through streaming only, 10% through TV and streaming combined, and 81% through TV only—illustrating traditional TV continues to be the foundation for political advertisers to reach voters. The research showed that by leaning into linear TV, advertisers can capture much of their desired audiences—but infusing streaming into a TV-centric media plan can exponentially extend reach: revealing that 51% of frequent voter households reached by streaming were incremental to traditional TV and would not have been reached by TV alone.

Effectv’s research illuminates the value of streaming to reach those in “light news viewing” households, finding that streaming impressions were 1.7x more likely to be seen within “light news viewing” households compared to traditional TV (18% versus 11%).

“TV viewership is changing before our eyes, and political advertisers need to adjust to that new reality,” added Sinagoga. “Relying on ‘old standbys’ like local news is not enough anymore. Streaming is a critical component to political advertising, and we’re seeing greater success among advertisers who take a multiscreen approach, using streaming as a strong complement to linear TV.”

The research concludes that traditional TV and streaming work better together to deliver audiences, Effectv said. Although TV continues to be foundational to media plans, streaming is becoming an increasingly critical element in political advertising, providing valuable incremental audiences and extending reach to households of likely voters, the researcher added.

SAN FRANCISCO—As more viewers cut the cord and abandon traditional pay-TV subscriptions, this phenomenon is having an impact on how political candidates get their message out. 

According to a new survey from Samba TV and HarrisX of more than 2,300 U.S. adults registered to vote in November in 10 key battleground states and nationally, streaming content has overtaken traditional television as the medium of choice for voters in both parties. With one month before the November elections, voters report being nearly twice as likely to stream content as having a monthly cable subscription, with a majority of U.S. voters in both parties no longer having traditional linear TV subscriptions in the home, the companies said.     

“The story this election season is the same whether you are looking nationally or at the key battleground states,” said Ashwin Navin, Co-Founder and CEO of Samba TV. “Voters have left traditional linear television in droves. Only 39% of independent swing voters in battleground states have traditional TV. With so many elections now being determined by the slimmest of margins, campaigns need to dramatically rethink how they reach voters in the closing weeks to ensure they are not just saturating the same shrinking number of households with ads while leaving the vast majority of the electorate under-reached.”   

In the 2020 battleground state of Arizona, a Samba TV analysis of all linear television ads run in the final 30 days of the competitive Senate race found 90% of the ads reached just the same 55% of Arizona households, highlighting the critical need for campaigns to shift strategies to reach voters where they now spend most of their time. 

“The data points clearly that the future king of political ad spending will be streaming. Voter eyeballs are more likely to be present by a factor of almost two to one,” said Dritan Nesho, Founder and CEO of HarrisX.

Political campaigns have been slow to adapt to this trend however. According to AdImpact, a record $9.7 billion will be spent on political advertising by the end of the 2022 election cycle with broadcast TV to get the bulk ($4.98 billion, representing 51.45%), followed by cable ($1.54 billion, 15.93%), then connected TV and digital (both at $1.44 billion, 14.92%) and $0.27 billion (2.77%) on radio. 

The survey found that just just 49% of U.S. registered voters have traditional TV and that one in four of those who do still have traditional TV plan to cancel in the next 6 months. Independents, the key swing voter block, are the least likely to have traditional TV, with only 4 in 10 (42%) having it today and in key battleground states, only 39% of independents have traditional TV.

In addition more than 80% of registered voters nationally and in key battleground states stream. Just 55% of those nationally and 56% of those in key battleground states who definitely plan to vote have a traditional TV subscription and in battleground states Democrats are much more likely to stream video on their mobile phones (72% compared to 59% of Republicans).

Not surprisingly, Millennial and Gen Z voters are even harder to reach with these age groups more than twice as likely to stream than to have a traditional linear subscription today—this gap is even wider for younger voters in battleground states. 

Facebook remains the most used platform by registered voters nationally but has less of an impact in the key battleground states. Democrat voters are significantly more likely to use TikTok than Republicans nationally with 37% of Democratic voters using it weekly compared to just 27% of Republican voters. 

This survey was conducted online within the United States from Aug. 29-Sept. 1 among 2,300 adults who identified as registered voters by HarrisX . Battleground states listed include PA, NV, WI, GA, AZ, NH, NC, OH, FL and CO.  

Voters not aligned with either the Democratic or Republican parties are more likely to pay attention to political ads than the partisan counterparts leading up to the 2022 U.S. mid-term elections, according to TVision.

In a blog post, the TV ad measurement firm noted that candidates and Super Pacs will spend an estimated $2.1 billion on linear TV and approximately $300 million on CTV advertising. Using TVision's Ad Scoreboard, the company evaluated how much attention different audiences are paying to political ads—specifically if the ads are garnering attention from their Democrat and Republican base, and engaging  independent voters. 

Drawing a parallel between how the amount of attention paid to a consumer ad helps enhance brand awareness, TVision said the same can apply to political ads to provide insight to campaign advertisers and political pundits. 

The key takeaways:

• Viewers are tuned in to the mid-terms: TV audiences are more likely to be in the room and paying attention when political ads run compared to all other TV ads.
• The swing voters are paying attention: Independents paid more attention to TV advertising than Republicans or Democrats.
• News channels offer opportunities to reach the base: Republicans pay the most attention to Fox News and Democrats to MSNBC.
• Super Pacs are grabbing attention: Democratic Super Pacs are capturing attention in major urban demos

During the survey period—from Jan. 1, 2022 to Aug. 29, 2022, TVision found that the average TV ad captured attention from 37.4% of viewers for at least 2 seconds, but viewers engaged more with political ads (38.7%). Even a 1% variance in attention is noteworthy, the company said, adding that even more important, those viewers stayed in the room 22% longer, and paid attention 15% longer to political ads than all other ads, suggesting the messaging, and creative elements are engaging viewers. 

TVision said that, especially for candidates and causes in critical swing states, its survey panelists who identify as Independent paid the most attention to TV advertising, suggesting that there is still opportunity to engage voters outside of the base. 

TVision has broken down its new digital audience segments via political affilations and TV viewing behavior to help consultants (i.e., its customers) create targetable political audiences. Political segments include Engaged Republicans, Engaged Democrats, Unengaged Republicans, Unengaged Democrats,  and Low News Viewers. As an example, "Engaged Republicans" will reach declared Republicans who also are heavy watchers of Fox News. Likewise, "Unengaged Democrats" will reach declared Democrats who are not heavy watchers of TV news. 

During the period of its eight month study, the consulting firm found that older viewers pay the most attention to TV advertising, which also holds true for political advertising. However younger viewers—18-24, who traditionally vote at the lowest rate (particularly during mid-terms)—are also noticing political advertising more than other advertising, which TVision says could be paying more attention to the elections this year. Younger viewers are paying 12% more attention to political ads on CTV than non-political ads.

In terms of who watches what, the results were fairly predictable, with Republicans responding more to ads on right-leaning Fox News and Democrats noticing the ads shown on MSNBC, which leans left. Independent voters are more engaged with ads on CNN, TVision said, adding that Republicans pay a whopping 71% more attention to ads on Fox News than to similar ads on MSNBC.

For those who decry the pervasiveness of negative ads, TVision says its  data shows that positive ads can also break through and capture attention. A Future Forward USA Action ad for President Biden captured 54.1% ad attention in Dallas. According to TVision’s Ad Scoreboard platform, the Bold Action ad, ”which highlights President Joe  Biden’s Climate Change initiatives,” scored a 105.7 for Creative Breakthrough. Creative Breakthrough measures how well an ad captures attention compared to ads that ran in the same pod. 

TVIsion reviewed viewer engagement with TV advertising on Linear and CTV for people 18+ years of age between January 1, 2022 and August 29, 2022. TVision’s panel includes approximately 13,000 viewers across the United States and they self-report political affiliation. 

CHANTILLY, VA.—Candidates for office next year will spend $6.55 billion on local political advertising with nearly half being spent on over-the-air television, according to a new estimate from BIA Advisory Service.

BIA is forecasting political spending on OTA TV advertising will reach $3.08 billion, or 47% of the total, followed by online/digital outlets at $1.37 billion (21%), multichannel video programming distributors (MVPDs) at $919 million (14%) and radio at $312 million (4.8%). The rest will go to other media outlets, including direct mail, which normally is a major political advertising medium but will only capture a small percentage in 2020, BIA said.

“Campaigns will continue to rely on television as a dominant platform for advertising while supplementing with digital advertising across mobile and desktop,” said Mark Fratrik, chief economist and SVP at BIA Advisory Services.

Los Angeles, Phoenix and Philadelphia are expected to top media markets in terms of political ad spending next year. In Los Angeles, candidates will spend $168 million on TV, $76 million on digital, $55 million on cable TV and $17 million on radio, according to BIA.

TV spending in Phoenix and Philadelphia will be high with the former seeing $156 million in spending and the latter experiencing a TV ad spend of $135 million, the company said.

“In some of the smaller markets, one thing to keep an eye on is how the huge volume of political advertising could crowd out other local advertisers during primary and general election seasons,” said Fratrik. “That may have an impact on advertisers and media companies, and we’ll certainly factor that into our forecasting as we go through the fall.”

The estimates of 2020 political advertising will be part of BIA ADVantage, an advertising intelligence report focusing on 94 markets.

More information is available on the BIA Advisory Services website.

Politicians running in the 2018 elections spent a record amount of money on advertising for mid-term campaigns, with more than $4 billion between local broadcast, cable and online. The vast bulk of the dollars went to local television, at just over $3 billion, according to the Television Bureau of Advertising. Cable brought in $1.1 billion and $900 million went to online advertising. Although local television reaped the biggest windfall, the numbers represent a 29 percent increase for local TV, 75 percent for cable and a whopping 260 percent increase for online, when compared to the 2014 mid-terms, according to Axios.

The biggest spenders in the campaign, according to Axios were Political Action Committees (PACs), including Priorities USA and House Majority PAC on the left, Congressional Leadership Fund and Senate Leadership Fund on the right, as well as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee.

The figures for digital online political advertising were debateable, with advertising research firm Borrell touting $1.8 billion and Kantar Media/CMAG estimating $900 million. In 2014, an estimated $250 million was spend in online campaign ads.

Nevertheless, with 3 out of every 4 dollars spent on local TV ads, TVB touted the figures as proof that political campaigns continue to view local television as the primary venue for political advertising.

“Campaigns, PACs and other entities spent over $3 billion dollars on local broadcast television advertising in the 2018 midterm cycle,” commented TVB President & CEO, Steve Lanzano. “There is no doubt that local broadcast TV delivers for political campaigns. Candidates continue to derive tangible, winning results from local broadcast television. Tuesday’s dominant reliance on TV, over all other media platforms, demonstrates that voters rely on local broadcast TV to inform their voting decisions.”

“2018 was uncertain in every way; the volatility this cycle was unprecedented,” said Kyle Roberts, President and CEO of Advertising Analytics. “It’s why we saw candidates and campaigns go back to what is tried and true: if you use TV, it reaches voters and they listen. TV works.”