CHANTILLY, Va.—BIA Advisory Services has revised its 2026 U.S. Local Advertising Forecast (released in Q4 2025), projecting total local ad revenue to reach $184.5 billion, reflecting approximately 8.1% year-over-year growth compared with 2025.

BIA said the increase over the prior estimate of $181.7 billion is driven by stronger-than-expected performance in mobile (particularly social), video, and streaming, political ad spend, and advertising technology.

“Our updated forecast reflects continued momentum in social and connected and over the top television, which are capturing a growing share of local advertising budgets,” said Senan Mele, vice president of forecasting and data analysis, BIA Advisory Services. “At the same time, traditional media such as broadcast television, cable and radio remain essential, providing the scale, credibility, and local connection that advertisers rely on to drive awareness and demand.”

Political advertising will drive key spending this year. BIA projects approximately $8.4 billion in local political spending, creating substantial revenue opportunities across broadcast television, linear cable, CTV/OTT, radio, and direct mail.

BIA’s forecast also points to two growth factors driving the local advertising economy: near-term revenue from political spending and long-term growth fueled by key verticals, including real estate, restaurants, travel, retail, and financial services. Total local advertising is projected to exceed $222 billion by 2030, according to BIA’s forecast.

“The local advertising marketplace continues to reflect a K-shaped consumer economy,” said Rick Ducey, managing director, BIA Advisory Services. “Stronger spending from higher-income households is supporting discretionary categories like travel, leisure, and automotive, while value-oriented spending is shaping demand in retail, restaurants, and essential services.”

The forecast update also underscores the ongoing transformation of the media mix. Growth is being driven by digital channels – particularly mobile, social, and connected TV – while traditional media continues to play a critical role in delivering reach and brand impact.

While some legacy formats, including print, continue to face long-term declines, others are evolving, the researchers reported.

Across the market, advertisers are increasingly adopting full-funnel strategies, combining high-reach media such as cable, broadcast, and OOH with data-driven digital channels to drive both awareness and measurable outcomes. Radio also remains a stable local medium, with additional opportunities emerging through digital audio, including streaming and podcasts.

“Overall, the local advertising market is not contracting; it is transforming. The most successful media companies will be those that can combine local audience scale with targeting, optimization, and measurement to capture both cyclical political spending and ongoing demand from growth-oriented verticals,” added Mele.

As part of this forecast update, BIA has enhanced its methodology to better reflect changes in the marketplace, including adding Digital Out of Home (DOOH) as a distinct media category within the forecast, rather than grouping it with traditional Out of Home (OOH). This change highlights the increasing importance of digital, programmatic, and location-based media in local campaigns.

More information is available at http://bia.com.

CHANTILLY, Va.—BIA Advisory Services’ has revised its 2025 U.S. Local Advertising Forecast down to $169 billion this year, reflecting a 2.4% decline compared to the previous year. This updated forecast is a 1.5% decrease from the company’s earlier estimate of $171.4 billion.

Excluding political advertising, the updated forecast for the year is $168.2 billion, representing a 3.7% growth compared to last year. This amount is a decrease from the previous forecast of $171 billion, the researcher said.

Economic factors such as consumer sentiment, tariffs, high interest rates, and tight credit conditions are exerting increased pressure on local advertising budgets across all sectors, leading to these revised projections. The forecast considers an expected minimum tariff environment of 10%, its impact, and the necessary budget adjustments.

“Following a solid performance in 2024, driven by significant political advertising and spending from key sectors such as Legal Services, Healthcare and Quick Service Restaurants, we are now noticing a shift in the advertising landscape for 2025,” stated Senan Mele, VP of forecasting and data analysis. “Ad growth has slowed down slightly as businesses implement more cautious spending strategies and optimize their channel allocations. This change underscores the necessity for agility in responding to the rapidly evolving economic environment.”

Within the total local ad spend, BIA has raised its forecast for digital media spending by $855 million this year, highlighting its increasing influence in the advertising landscape. Digital media is expected to account for 53.7% of total advertising spending, which amounts to $90.4 billion. In contrast, traditional media spending is projected to make up 46.3% of total ad revenues, totaling $77.8 billion, reflecting a decrease of $3.5 billion from previous estimates. This shift is attributed to a growing focus on lower-funnel channels and the ongoing fragmentation of the media landscape.

When analyzing the forecast without political advertising, several media types are projected to experience growth. Connected TV (CTV)/Over-the-Top (OTT) is expected to increase by 29.3%. PC/Laptop follows closely, growing 12.1%, and mobile advertising is expected to rise by 9.4%. Additionally, TV digital advertising is estimated to grow by 3.7%, while both out-of-home (OOH) advertising and direct mail are projected to see a growth of 1.6%.

“The impressive growth of CTV and OTT services from 2024 to 2025 is largely attributed to ad-supported platforms now capturing 73.6% of TV viewing,” said BIA Managing Director Rick Ducey. “This transition from traditional broadcasting to streaming reinforces the business case for TV broadcasters to implement CTV/OTT strategies, enabling them to reclaim audiences and enhance their targetable ad inventory. However, despite increasing viewership and advertising spending, streaming providers face significant challenges in achieving profitability in a fragmented market."

BIA’s local advertising forecast also provides insights into ad spending by local verticals. Key takeaways include:

Top Three Fastest-Growing Categories Year-Over-Year:

• Real Estate (+10.4%)
• Restaurants and Food (+7.8%)
• Finance and Insurance (+4.0%)

Key Categories (Excluding Political) Declining Year-Over-Year:

• Media (-2.2%)
• Healthcare (-0.5%)
• General Services (-0.3%)

Mele remarked: “Despite the challenges faced by the media sector, there are promising opportunities this year, particularly with the holiday shopping season expected to kick off in early November. This extended time frame allows for a more strategic approach to targeted advertising. We’re excited to explore these trends further and provide our clients with insights that can help them capitalize on the growth in fast-growing categories while also navigating the declines.”

Television broadcasters are poised to see ad revenue growth this year when compared to other off-election years but face the dual challenges of encouraging viewers to climb aboard the NextGen TV train and rethinking traditional ingest, traffic, master control and playout workflows to cash in on streaming and FAST channel opportunities.

Those were some of the major takeaways from the “Turning New Media –for Streaming & FAST to NextGen TV—into New Audiences” session March 13 during the 2025 TVTech Leadership Summit. Panelists Rick Ducey, managing director of BIA Advisory Services; Robert Folliard, senior vice president of government relations and distribution at Gray Media; and Mike Kralec, senior vice president/chief technology officer at Sinclair, offered their perspectives on a variety of issues related to building audiences on these platform. (Full disclosure, I moderated the panel.)

While digital media has experienced significant growth in local ad revenue since 2019, broadcasters are well-position to capture their share as the reach of IP-based NextGen TV to connected TV (CTV) viewers grows.

“As high growth as it (digital) is, we like to emphasize that local broadcast TV stations still are an amazing asset. Audiences love them. Advertisers love them, and a lot of dollars change hands in a good way for the business,” said Ducey.

Earlier in the month, BIA Advisory released its local ad forecast for the United States without political advertising. It forecasts all local ad revenue in 2025 will reach $171 billion, up 6.1% year over year from 2024 when political advertising is removed. Digital media, which includes streaming, Free Ad-Supported Television channels and many non-video-related media, will account for 52.5% of local advertising revenue this year while traditional media, including over-the-air TV, cable TV and other non-video related media, will claim 47.6% of the revenue, Ducey said.

“The takeaway here is that in 2019 when it was just over a third for the digital side of things, now we see it being 56% in 2028,” he said, adding that local broadcasters can compete effectively for digital ad revenue with FAST and NextGen TV channels.

Promoting NextGen TV
Gray Media had launched ATSC 3.0 at 44 stations as of the panel, covering 33 markets. It is on-air with NextGen TV in all of the station group’s top 50 markets with the exception of Cleveland and Memphis, which Gray is targeting for 3.0 launches, said Folliard.

“…[W]e are aggressively getting up as many stations in as many markets as we can just to gather more consumer demand, get more consumer interest in the technology and launch it everywhere the regulators will let us,” he said.

Gray Media has focused much of its promotional efforts on touting the improved picture quality high dynamic range (HDR) offers NextGen TV viewers, he said.

“One of the big promises broadcasters have been making for six [or] seven years on NextGen is that it’s going to be a better picture. So, we felt it was time to deliver. Put up or shut up, and the first opportunity for us was the [2024] Kentucky Derby,” said Folliard.

WAVE-TV, the Gray Media NBC affiliate in Louisville, Ky., broadcast Dolby Vision HDR and Dolby Atmos immersive audio via 3.0 in the week leading up to the horserace during local news and special productions from Churchill Downs.

“This was the perfect opportunity to showcase what HDR can do because it’s an outdoor event. You’ve got the lights…, the bright colors of the horses and the jockeys…. [I]t pops in HDR, and this was the perfect showcase event.”

The station “promoted the heck out” of its NextGen TV HDR coverage leading up to the race on-air and online. It also partnered with a local retailer on a NextGen TV giveaway to viewers. The effort “definitely created a buzz,” he said.

“Afterwards, we looked at some of the data in terms of new TVs that signed on throughout the entire country and then just in Louisville, Ky.,” he said. “And just in the couple of weeks before and after the Derby, 10% of all new NextGen TVs that signed on were in Louisville, Ky.”

Next up was rolling out HDR on its NextGen TV NBC affiliates in time for the 2024 Paris Olympics, which Gray Media followed up on by rolling out HDR on some of its Fox and CBS affiliates in time for the 2024-25 NFL season.

Emphasizing that Gray Media is “technology-agnostic” when it comes to HDR, it has launched a couple of NextGen TV stations with SL-HDR. “Starting in December after we tested it with Samsung, we were able to do dual versions of HDR where you were able to do HDR10+ or the Dolby Vision HDR. And your TV would decide,” said Folliard.

For the Super Bowl, Gray Media launched its WVUE-TV Fox affiliate in New Orleans NextGen TV transmission with Dolby Vision and HDR10+, he said, adding that the group planned to [now is] offer March Madness in HDR.

“All of the features that we know are available with NextGen, we need to start telling consumers about it…. [W]e need to do it often you know, again and again and again, and this is just another example of that,” he said.

Ecosystem Choices
Whether its FAST channels streaming via the internet or NextGen TV, broadcasters will find they must reevaluate their workflows if they are to meet the goals they set for meeting viewers where they watch content and enabling audiences to benefit from enhanced viewing experiences, said Kralec.

“…I think the key here for us is how do we close… our own little digital divide between the legacy media operations that we’ve had for the last 20-plus years and where we need to be with the audience today,” he said.

Transformation is necessary in TV broadcasters’ content centers and automation and playout systems. “I think there are a lot of pieces here that really haven’t traditionally been enabled for this digital ecosystem,” he said.

Noting that Sinclair is proceeding with transformation of content centers, automation, playout, transmission and how it uses its spectrum, Kralec said the station group is pursuing a path that leads to a digital and software-defined ecosystem that ultimately will pay off in reaching the goals its business side and content creators are pursuing.

“A lot of that comes back to whether or not your operational workflows are either software-defined or if they are flexible. Flexibility might come from improved processes or improved software. It might come from improved operational models. But really the key here for us is to make sure that we shrink that divide through our transformation programs so we look a lot more like a FAST channel from an automation and playout [perspective],” said Kralec.

“We look a lot more like a content creator in our content centers, and then we look at our spectrum as more of a blank slate… than just an audio-video distribution path for us.”

However, there is no magic wand that will make these transformations painless. “This is an iterative process,” he said. “If we want to do dynamic ad insertion [for example], there’s a lot of orchestration behind the scenes that goes into that.”

Some of the orchestration will involve well-established operational centers, such as traffic departments and the systems they have used for years as well as programming schedules and media management. “…[N]ow we need to decorate those streams like the digital guys do already,” said Kralec.

However, undertaking this sort of transformation only makes sense once the calculus is done in comparing the benefits versus the pain involved in making the necessary changes, he said.

“Can we articulate to our business, what the value is and how much it’s going to take internally to transition to an improved workflow that supports that digital ecosystem, to my point earlier, that makes us look a little more like the digital side of things with the right cue points for dynamic ad insertion or… coming in and out of different types of digital products in general?”

This session and others at the TV Tech Summit can be viewed on demand here.

CHANTILLY, Va—U.S. local advertising revenue is expected to rise 6.1% in 2025, driven mainly by spending on digital media, according to a new report from BIA Advisory Services.

Without major political campaign spending or the Olympics, BIA is still optimistic about the local ad outlook, predicting that it will reach $171 billion. When political advertising is included, the total estimated spend of $171.4 billion will be a slight decline of 0.5 percent below 2024, given last year’s relatively large political spend, which BIA tagged at $11.7 billion.

The numbers line up with BIA’s original forecast for 2025 last summer, but the updated forecast shows slight adjustments to previous estimates for 2025, with advertising revenue (excluding political) adjusted up by 0.03 percent from the last forecast and total local ad revenue, including political spending, adjusted up by 0.1%.

“Our latest forecast indicates that local advertising is showing resilience, despite the ongoing changes in the economic landscape," said Nicole Ovadia, VP of Forecasting and Analysis at BIA Advisory Services. "Although we expect core advertising to remain stable, we've adjusted our outlook to account for various market factors like interest rates and consumer sentiment and significant changes in media consumption patterns that are driving digital growth."

Key Findings:

• Digital transformation is accelerating rapidly: Traditional advertising channels show weaker performance metrics, while digital platforms surpass growth expectations. This trend indicates a faster-than-anticipated shift in advertising allocation strategies.
• Growth Platforms: Due to political advertising, there were more crowd-outs in 2024, so TV Digital grew faster than anticipated. Connected TV/Over-the-top is still the fastest growing overall as local advertisers continue to embrace this media.
• Political Impact: Despite being an off-election year, 2025 will see significant political advertising activity in key local markets affected by special elections and gubernatorial races.

The forecast indicates strong growth in several sectors: Real Estate at 9.3 percent, Restaurants at 9.2 percent, and Retail at 6.8 percent. These three sectors are critical indicators of local advertising activity and trends. The Education and Automotive verticals are also experiencing substantial growth, with increases of 5.0 percent each.

"Key verticals are showing notable shifts in 2025," said Rick Ducey, Managing Director at BIA Advisory Services. "While what we term the '3Rs'—Restaurants, Retail, and Real Estate—lead growth, we see interesting opportunities in Auto and Education. Auto dealers are likely to revive aggressive financing promotions when interest rates ease, and educational institutions are increasing their digital presence, particularly through geo-targeted campaigns, to connect with price-sensitive students who might not have considered nearby educational options before."

Rick Ducey will be a featured panelist on the TV Tech Leadership Summit next week. Click here to register for the free event.

After a period of strong growth, BIA Advisory Services is predicting that cord cutting and the shift towards streaming will produce a “flattening” in retransmission fees between 2024 and 2028. That marks and important change from recent years, where BIA estimates that local TV stations generated $12.3 billion in distribution revenue from MVPDs and vMVPDs in 2020, and this rose 22.5 percent to $15.1 billion by 2023. 

A blog post by BIA's Rick Ducey noted that “as shown below, NBC affiliated stations saw the largest increase in distribution revenue in this period, followed by CBS, FOX, and ABC.  Broadcasters often negotiate both financial and non-financial terms such as including carriage of diginets.”

“Looking ahead beyond 2023, the local TV industry has come to rely on these distribution revenues but the dynamics are in flux,” Ducey noted. “In a world with growing segments of homes that are cord-cutters and cord nevers with a transition to CTV/OTT streaming video services, the economics of retransmission consent are changing as MVPDs see video subscriber losses along with the associated revenues from which distribution fees can be paid. MVPDs themselves are making adjustments by moving towards offering their own streaming services served to their growing ranks of broadband customers versus their traditional cable households.”

The BIA did not provide specific dollar figures for its 2024-2028 retrans fee estimates but noted that “BIA’s latest forecast for local TV station vMVPD/MVPD distribution revenue shows growth from 2023 but an overall flattening in the 2024-2028 period. Of the total amount of distribution revenue in the 2020-2028 period, the Top 25 TV Markets account for over half of the local TV station revenue from multichannel video providers. The Top 10 markets generate 29.9 percent of the total and Markets 11-25 get 21.6 percent.”

CHANTILLY, Va.—In an update to the 2024 U.S. Local Advertising Forecast, BIA Advisory Services is now estimating that revenues across all local media in the U.S. will reach $172 billion in 2024, an increase of 9.3% over 2023. 

As part of the slightly downward revised forecast, BIA is predicting that TV over the air (OTA) will be up 28.3% and TV digital will grow by 24.9%.  

The spending bounce will be driven by local political and other key local vertical ad spend, and significant ad growth for connected TV/over-the-top (CTV/OTT), TV OTA, and TV digital. Even so, the forecast reflects a reduction of 2.0% from BIA’s October 2023 estimate.

“As expected, local political advertising will be substantial this year, and it’s fueling spend across the media landscape,” said Nicole Ovadia, vice president of forecasting and analysis, BIA Advisory Services. “Our slight adjustment down for this year is mainly due to mixed economic signals, a slowdown in certain consumer purchases, and lower than expected spending in digital and direct mail advertising at the end of 2023 that may flow into this year. However, we still anticipate 2024 to be better for local advertising than 2023 and certain media like TV OTA, TV digital, and CTV/OTT are growing substantially.”

The 2024 forecast update shows a small increase in expectations for local political advertising. BIA estimates $11.1 billion in spending this year, up 15.5% from 2020. Local television will continue to get the largest share of the spending, with forecasted increases in local political advertising going to CTV/OTT. 

The split between traditional and digital advertising shows that digital has a slightly smaller share, 48.7% of the overall advertising spend at $84 billion. Traditional media ad revenue is slated at 51.3% of the ad spend at $88 billion. Growth is occurring in both types of media. TV OTA (+28.3%) and TV digital (+24.9%) are both projected to grow this year, even when looking at forecast estimates with and without political advertising. 

The breakout media this year will be CTV/OTT, whose growth can be attributed to high quality and more accessible inventory through the programmatic market, increased costs per thousand (CPMs), and demand to generate higher overall revenue. BIA forecasts that in 2024 CTV/OTT will grow 53.8%. 

“Political and issue campaigns are recognizing that the combination of premium TV and targeted advertising can make a strong impact, using the same kinds of data ad buyers need with digital media,” said BIA’s Managing Director Rick Ducey. “Another factor supporting this growth is that we are observing spending leaking out of search and social and going into CTV/OTT.”

BIA’s local advertising forecast covers 96 local verticals. Key vertical takeaways from the forecast include the top three fastest-growing verticals year-over-year: political (+1975.2%); real estate (+12.5%); leisure and recreation (+4.7%). 

Key local business verticals declining year-over-year include: health (-3.3%); general services (-2.5%); automotive (-1.0%).

“Beyond political, one category to also watch is real estate, as there’s been so much pressure around home prices and interest rates,” said Ovadia. “We believe later this year when rates start to decrease, a flurry of activity will generate increased advertising, especially by realtors. Declining verticals like health are level setting from the pandemic but certain key areas of this vertical are holding spending steady and even increasing. Auto will not make a full recovery to pre-pandemic spending levels through the end of our forecast period in 2027.”

More information is available at http://www.bia.com.

• Empty list

IRVING, Texas—As retransmission fees from pay TV operators are becoming an increasingly fraught issue and operators struggle with massive sub losses, Nexstar is ending live streams of its local newscasts from many of its stations in a bid to make local broadcast content more valuable. 

Nexstar's WTNH, for example, posted on its website that “[i]n order to fulfill our obligations to our cable, satellite, and telco partners, on January 12, WTNH will begin making its newscasts and locally produced lifestyle programming available on the WTNH website two hours after their live broadcast over-the-air.”

The strategy shift was previously reported by FTVLive.

B+C is reporting however that some Nextstar stations continue to offer live newscasts on streaming media. WGN-TV, Chicago, KTLA-TV, Los Angeles, and KRON-TV, San Francisco, will continue to stream local news programming live on their station apps WGN Plus, KTLA Plus and KRON Plus, B+C reported. 

Nexstar reported that other stations will continue to make highlights of newscasts available through video clips and other coverage after the live broadcast and that breaking news and important weather updates will continue to be offered on websites, mobile apps and social media platforms. 

The shift in strategy comes at a time when pay TV operators are seeing mounting sub losses and retransmission consent negotiations with operators have become increasingly fraught. Limiting the live newscasts would allow Nexstar to argue that it deserves higher retransmission fees. 

The pullback from local streaming comes, however, as the industry has ramping up live streaming of local news and viewers have shifted more and more of their viewing to those apps. It raised questions about whether the decision will boost short term profits at the expense of longer term business opportunities.  

BIA has reported that local OTT revenue is the fastest growing ad business, topping $2 billion in 2022 and should top $2.4 billion by 2024.  But those revenues remain tiny compared local TV advertising and retransmission fees. 

BIA estimates that retransmission fees now account for more than 50% of local stations’ revenue but it is forecasting that retransmission revenues could go down to 39% by 2026.  

WASHINGTON—Sometimes in Washington the best indicator that something big is brewing is when suddenly everyone clams up.  

Such is the case with the long simmering effort to impose retransmission consent regulations on streaming video carriage of local stations. Recent sub rosa negotiations are not very well hidden, since affiliate groups and lobbyists (including the National Association of Broadcasters) have submitted ex parte filings about their Federal Communications Commission meetings on the topic. Both FCC Chair Jessica Rosenworcel and NAB President Curtis LeGeyt have acknowledged that decisions are overdue on streaming retransmission policies for video via virtual multichannel video programming distributors.

10 p.m. Up for Grabs?
Moreover, the issue is bubbling up as the entire nature of the network/affiliate relationship is undergoing major revisions—from chatter about ceding the 10 pm (ET) programming hour back to affiliates (the network has decided to keep it for now) to the intense appeals from NBC, CBS, Fox and ABC for viewers to tune in directly to their streaming services, such as Peacock, Paramount+ and Hulu, thus bypassing local affiliates entirely. In addition, stations’ adoption of ATSC 3.0 and its IP implications could affect the retransmission requirements. 

The current chatter about vMVPD revenues comes amid forecasts that traditional retrans revenue to affiliates may drop from 50% to 39% of station income in the next few years, according to research firm BIA. Adding to the clout of networks’ (and other) streaming services is their libraries of off-network syndicated content, formerly a mainstay of independent stations (e.g. episodes of popular series such as “Seinfeld,” “The Office,” “NCIS” and “Friends”). Analysts wonder if audiences will tune into broadcast reruns if they can choose what to watch via streaming platforms. 

Yet, NAB, NCTA – The Internet & Television Association,  American Television Alliance (ATVA), the FCC and attorneys for stations and affiliate groups have all ducked TV Tech’s queries about what what’s going on, sometimes after initially agreeing to share updates on their negotiations but later saying that they couldn’t discuss activities because of current, unspecified conditions.  

NAB declined to respond to TV Tech’s questions about its streaming stance, but later that same week the association submitted an ex parte filing at the FCC describing its meeting at which it urged the commission to examine  “current streaming advancements [that] may affect the Commission’s calculus in determining whether virtual MVPDs should be deemed to be MVPDs.”  

At the same time, LeGeyt asked the FCC to classify vMVPDs as carriers that are subject to program-negotiation obligations.  NAB took that message directly to commissioners and their staffs in a series of November meetings. 

Some advocates had hoped that Congress would address the issue via new laws for retransmission fee guarantees, but those dreams were dashed by the mid-term election. A divided House and Senate are considered unlikely to agree on any communications financial issues and will “not pass much legislation,” a veteran media lawyer/lobbyist told TV Tech.

Much of the current effort is focused on the 2014 FCC proposed rulemaking that then-FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler initiated, which sought to determine if video services that are not facilities-based should be subject to the agency’s rules for  traditional MVPDs, such as cable or telco systems. In an interview with Politico Pro, LeGeyt said the NAB’s board wants the FCC to collect new feedback on the Wheeler proposal given “changes in the marketplace.”

Separately, Rosenworcel told Congress in November that she would welcome the chance to become involved in retransmission consent issues, particularly in disputes that affect viewer’s access to programs during blackouts of broadcast signals on MVPD systems.  She said the FCC would work with Congress, but emphasized that the FCC’s role would be to protect consumers if vMVPD fees or terms are excessive—with no mention of helping affiliates.

Affiliate Rift 
The retransmission situation also puts the spotlight on the growing rift between affiliates and networks. In a presentation to the FCC, four major networks’ affiliate groups pointed out that, “Unlike negotiations with traditional MVPDs where local television affiliates negotiate directly for the carriage of their FCC-licensed signals, the national Big Four broadcast networks have asserted near-total control over carriage negotiations with vMVPDs.” The group emphasized that deals are conducted “without any meaningful input from its non-owned Affiliate stations.”

Affiliates’ dissatisfaction with how networks are treating them is surfacing from multiple sources. There are unconfirmable reports that the networks have negotiated retransmission consent agreements with YouTube TV on behalf of the affiliates, but affiliates contend that their slice of that payment is too small. Other reports indicate that Comcast recently loaded all the NBC affiliates onto its Peacock streaming platform, after which NBC affiliates’ leadership issued a supportive statement. Analysts told TV Tech that lethargic support suggested that Comcast/NBC offered a good-enough deal, but no match to conventional cable retransmission fees.

The network vs. affiliates tension regarding vMVPD deals was especially vivid at the Big Four networks’ affiliate associations session at the FCC. When executives of the groups met virtually with FCC Commissioner Nathan Simington and his staff earlier this year, they urged the commission to consider making online video distributors abide by the same retransmission consent rules as traditional MVPDs, according to the subsequent report of their law firm, Brooks Pierce. 

A new retransmission analysis by financial firm Matthew Lochte of Bond & Pecaro concludes that overall retrans fees have reached “mature equilibrium” thanks to cable cord cutting. The analysis, distributed by  the Media Financial Management Association (MFM), points out that especially “for smaller broadcast companies” the affiliation fees could “exceed total retrans revenues” from MVPDs and vMVPDs.”

Parrott Analytics, in its latest, lengthy analysis “The Value of Broadcast Television,”  builds a case for the symbiotic relationship between streaming video and broadcasting – although it focuses entirely on networks.

 Parrott points out that in 3Q22, “a whopping 33.8% of its U.S. audience demand” of streaming content is based on broadcast network series. Viewers easy “access to new recent installments of mainstream network programming is a major selling point, providing consumers with a convenient on-demand option and providing networks with extended exposure,” says Parrot’s study.

“The networks themselves, and their significant domestic reach, can help expand a streamer’s audience demographic while raising additional awareness,” the report continues. “Once users are exploring broadcast titles within a digital ecosystem, they tend to stay there. Linear network shows provide a strong affinity halo effect that keeps audiences on track for related consumption. “

Emily Barr, former president/CEO of Graham Media Group and a vigorous defender of local stations and network/affiliate collaboration, acknowledges the complications because “there are so many players in streaming.” She said she’d like to see a “more cooperative relationship” as vMVPD develops since the network/affiliate relations is based on local stations receiving retransmission revenue.

“If the networks want to keep a relationship with affiliates, they [must create}  a way to let the affiliates partake in the revenue,” Barr says, noting that, “There have been some discussions in that direction on behalf of some of the networks,” but that nothing conclusive has emerged.

Barr concedes that cord-cutting will continue to affect cable/satellite retrans revenue, but she foresees considerable revenue as the process unfolds, pointing out that networks are playing both sides, with investments to nurture some streaming services. “They’re trying to have a little bit of both [traditional retransmission plus direct-to-consumer streaming]” she said. But Barr stops short of predicting how the game will play out. 

Slowing Retrans Fee Growth
Rick Ducey, managing director of BIA, underscores affiliates’ growing reliance on retransmission fees, which “will continue to be a substantial” factor, now accounting for more than 50% of local stations’ revenue. BIA’s forecasts envision that retransmission revenues could go down to 39% by 2026, and that local stations will receive a “decreasing share of it” as networks demand higher reverse compensation fees because of ever-increasing programming rights costs. 

As for the current quiet ballet between broadcasters and digital platform operators, Ducey believes that “networks and affiliates boards have to negotiate what goes on the platform and determine what the split is.” He expects that affiliates will get “some economic benefit from vMVPDs” but notes that some major TV groups are already making such deals, much as they’ve done for their conventional retransmission agreements.  Obviously, no details are being made public yet. 

Ducey acknowledges that the networks have taken the lead in vMVPD negotiations on behalf of affiliates and “are probably not doing the best job for their affiliates.” He points out that local stations see cord cutting as impacting transmission fees, which will lead to “things getting more out of balance in favor of the networks.” Ducey agreed that when he probed into FCC or Capitol Hill involvement in this streaming retransmission issue, he also got “don’t want to talk about that” responses, which he characterizes as “a non-denial denial that’s probably an affirmation of an underlying issue that is brewing. No one said, ‘it is a non-issue.’ Semantics matter.”

Ducey envisions that there will be changes as broadcast affiliates complete deals with local MVPDs. “At some point the cable industry has to say ‘our ability to pay has been in decline, so we have to re-adjust fees,’” he predicts. “Margins are being compressed; looking ahead [there are] different businesses” taking shape. 

Growing Recognition of Unfolding Problems 
NAB’s meetings with top FCC Media Bureau officials and commissioners’ staff emphasized that “significant developments in the streaming marketplace may impact the Commission’s continued consideration of its pending proposal ‘to modernize [its] interpretation of the term … [vMVPD] by including’ … services that make available for purchase, by subscribers or customers, multiple linear streams of video programming, regardless of the technology used to distribute the programming,” according to the follow-up by Rick Kaplan, NAB’s chief legal officer and executive vice president, Legal and Regulatory Affairs.

Kaplan also pointed out that current streaming advancements may “affect the Commission’s calculus in determining whether virtual MVPDs should be deemed to be MVPDs.” And he emphasized that “must address certain critical implications of its proposal, including how to ensure broadcast signals carried by vMVPDs are protected from piracy, material degradation, and distribution beyond a station’s local market.” 

Bolstering broadcasters’ expectations that they can reach deals with vMVPD operators are recent reports from Park Associates analytics firm that emphasize the continuing appeal of conventional video programming. 

“Adults 55 and older disproportionately favor a linear experience while viewers 18-24 prefer watching content from YouTube, social media, and the like,” Parks Research Vice President Jennifer Kent told TV Tech. “Consumers value live content because it is engaging, sometimes interactive, and personal to their interests.” 

She cited a recent 50:50 joint venture between Comcast and Charter Communications (the two largest cable operators in the U.S.), to develop a nationwide streaming platform. Although the competitive strength of such a unified service may affect broadcast network initiatives, Kent says that the arrangement “may help Comcast and Charter pull ahead in subscriber growth and gain an edge in the crowded OTT market.”

Financial Considerations 
Amid this regulatory rigamarole, Wall St. is also monitoring the impact of the vMVPD relationship with local broadcasting.

Laura Martin, senior entertainment and internet analyst at Needham & Company, doesn’t believe streaming is undermining local affiliates, contending that stations “will get paid if they have viewership,” but is not specific about how those payments will be made.

“The affiliate has value,” Martin said, but adding that direct-to-consumer viewing is all about generating specific data, so “local TV will be forced to compete on the local data.”  It has to be “really good data about what kind of content attracts and keeps a viewer. It must pull its weight.”   

CHANTILLY, Va—While traditional OTA broadcasting still garners the majority of TV marketing bucks, the OTT TV market is the fastest growing segment when it comes to attracting advertisers, who prefer the programmatic nature of targeted advanced advertising. 

This is the conclusion of a new report from BIA Advisory Services The Local Programmatic Marketplace – OTT and Digital Reach Extension Channels, which explores local OTT advertising trends and programmatic buying that provides access to a network of OTT ad inventory from a variety of publishers. The paper includes findings from executive interviews performed for the preparation of the paper. Participants included local TV group executives, agencies, and technology solution providers, along with OTT platforms and aggregators. The report, sponsored by Madhive, is free to download.

In BIA’s current edition of its U.S. Local Advertising Forecast issued in June 2022, the fastest-growing media segment is OTT with an annual growth rate of 57.4% in 2022. OTT spending will exceed $2.0 billion this year, drawing strength from multiple business verticals and political, BIA said.

From 2022 to 2026, OTT will grow at 14.3 percent CAGR and hold the second spot behind TV Digital (owned and operated streaming and website advertisements sold by local broadcast stations), showing its impact on OTT video in various local markets, according to the report.

In the chart below, the tipping point seems to be nigh, with just over 50% of ad dollars currently going to traditional OTA TV and the other half coming from new OTT and digital platforms, with digital increasing its share of the pie over the next few years.

 BIA is forecasting that spending on digital will grow to $116.6 billion by 2026 while spending on traditional OTA TV will only rise to $93.6 billion, having digital sales expand by 8.0 percent from 2022 to 2026. During that same period, BIA says that local TV spending will decrease from 51.2% to 41.7% of local video ad spending and local cable will decline from 16.2% to 12.5%. 

Conversely, the market for all digital video ad platforms is growing with video display ad spend on laptops/PC nearly double in this period between 2022 and 2026 from 13.7% to 22.6% of local video spending. Spending on digital media spending will grow to 55% of total local ad spending by 2026.

The BIA report illustrated how the pandemic impacted the market, showing that from 2019 to 2022, locally targeted digital sales rose from $55.9 billion to $79.5 billion, while traditional sales declined from $92.5 billion to $87.9 billion. When the lockdown occurred in 2020, more consumers turned to online platforms, driving a shift of 9.8% traditional sales towards digital across all TV markets. 

The first half of 2022 saw the rate of cordcutting accelerate as more than two million TV households cancelled their pay TV services during the period. This is prompting media providers to focus on aggregating audiences across local TV and OTT distribution platforms, BIA said, which urged broadcasters to combine OTA/linear and digital premium video ad inventory to bring both linear and digital premium video ad inventory to cross-platform buyers through programmatic trading.

As explained by Ducey, “Programmatic trading is fast becoming the new norm because it empowers data-driven automated platforms to manage real-time and forward reserve bidding that matches publisher inventory with ad buyer targeted consumer segments at sufficient scale and at mutually agreeable price points.”

Programmatic platforms allow advertisers to maximize their ad inventory by providing the granular data that help marketers identify and activate targeted groups at scale across many publishers, protect against fraud, and deliver campaign optimization, analytics, and key performance metrics. The report offers a full explanation of both direct and programmatic trading and the impact on buyers and sellers.

Auto manufacturers and local auto dealers are the top 1 and 2 segments of the programmatic TV advertising market,  according to the BIA report, with healthcare and legal three and four on the list.

The report notes that while local TV and OTT have traditionally operated separate and apart, things are changing as more advertisers demand more targeted advertising through programmatic. BIA cited TEGNA’s deployment of OTT streaming apps for its 64 local stations in 51 markets—which will bring its linear and digital premium ad inventory to cross-platform buyers—as one of the examples of this change. 

“OTT is the fastest growing channel for local media in 2022 and looking ahead to next year,” said Rick Ducey, Managing Director at BIA Advisory Services and the report’s author. “It is progressively serving as a digital reach extension to linear TV. Until recently, however, local TV and OTT have operated in silos, each with its own culture, workflow, and different levels of automation. Our research shows this is changing as marketplace trading moves to a much faster pace of innovation than in the past.”

CHANTILLY, Va.—As if local broadcasters don’t have enough to worry about with cordcutting and increased competition from streaming services, now a new report from BIA Advisory Services reveals that over-the-top (OTT) is one of the fastest growing channels for local media and increased at a rate of 43% compound annual growth from 2020 to 2022. 

Sponsored by Vevio, the report, OTT – The Rising Star in Local Ad Spending: Regional and Business Vertical Trends, shows that BIA forecasts just over $2 billion in OTT advertising in 2022, up from just over $1 billion in 2020. This substantial growth now gives OTT the distinction of being the fastest growing local advertising platform, according to the research firm. BIA defines OTT ad spend as comprising ad spending targeting local viewers of long form premium video content delivered via the Internet. 

“The sheer growth and volume of OTT impressions has taken the local OTT channel from a fill-in audience reach extension play to a full-fledged marketing channel,” said Rick Ducey, Managing Director and report author, BIA Advisory Services. “Now, OTT is recognized as a channel capable of delivering local ad impressions at scale across demographics and market geographies, making it a highly competitive channel across all media.” 

OTT’s rapid growth in local advertising can be attributed to what BIA calls “the valuable and unique characteristics of both highly engaging premium videos within a brand safe environment that is combined with the data-driven marketing capabilities of digital advertising. This blend also includes the ability to define and activate audience segments with first and third-party data and to target, optimize and measure performance of campaigns.” 

Localism has long been the vanguard of broadcasters, but with OTT being able to match and even exceed the ability of streaming services to target specific audiences in specific geographic regions, broadcasters’ best hope to compete with OTT in local advertising is with the adoption of ATSC 3.0, which brings many of the advantages of OTT ad personalization to broadcasting. 

And despite recently lowering its 2022 U.S. Local Advertising Forecast estimate to $167.4 billion—a decline from its original estimate of $173.3 billion issued in December 2021—BIA is still predicting hefty growth for TV over-the-air (OTA) spending, which is set to see a +30.3% pop in 2022. and TV digital, which is set to grow 18.3%.  

BIA organized its local OTT forecast data in five geographic U.S. regions. Each region has demonstrated high growth rates since 2020, and offers three key takeaways:

• The mid-Atlantic region has the highest growth rate for local OTT ad spend at 53 percent CAGR;
• Northeast has the second highest growth rate at 47 percent CAGR, and
• Pacific Southwest and Pacific Southeast regions show growth just below the overall average of 42.7 percent

The top spending business category in local OTT advertising is the General Services vertical (i.e., legal, plumbers and HVAC, utilities, funeral homes and more), with expected revenues to reach $337.2 million across all U.S. regions in 2022. General Services businesses in the Southeast region will spend the most ($105.7 million) on local OTT. The report also details spending in the automotive, restaurant, health, and finance/insurance verticals. 

“The data and insights that BIA provides in the report show the efficacy of local OTT as a competitive and powerful marketing channel,” said Liz Baxter, Director of Local Advertising, Vevo. “As OTT continues to show itself as a win-win for advertisers, brands and agencies that want to target local audiences have a valuable new media channel to add to their advertising mix.”

“OTT – The Rising Star in Local Ad Spending: Regional and Business Vertical Trends,” a BIA Sponsored Research report, sponsored by Vevo, is available for free download here. 

CHANTILLY, Va.—BIA Advisory Services has released its annual ranking of the top 30 TV station groups by revenue, with Nexstar Broadcasting ranked as the largest with nearly $4 billion in total revenue. 

Standard General came in #2, with $2.7 billion in revenue, followed by Gray ($2.6 billion), Sinclair ($2.5 billion), and Fox at #5 with $2.5 billion. 

The rankings also highlighted the importance of retransmission consent agreements with retransmission payments exceeding advertising revenue for Nexstar, Standard General and Sinclair. 

In a blog post announcing the rankings, Suzanne Ackley noted that “[t]he biggest change is that Standard General, thanks to its pending acquisition of Tegna, now occupies the 2nd spot. But before you cry foul and tell me that 1) the Standard General/Tegna deal wasn’t announced until 2022, and 2) the deal hasn’t even closed yet… it wouldn’t make any difference in the rankings. Looking at the list without the Standard General/Tegna acquisition, BIA’s new head of forecasting, Nicole Ovadia remarked that `Tegna would have surpassed Gray, moving from third to second this year on our list even without the sale to Standard General.’

The blog also noted that the change in ranking for Standard General is the first change in the top 10 in a few years, with the top 10 list remaining the same in 2021 and 2020. 

The blog also explained that Nexstar maintains duopoly partnerships (ie – Joint Services Agreements and/or Shared Services Agreements) with Mission Broadcasting-owned TV stations and that BIA combined Nexstar and Mission’s revenues for this list. The same holds true for Sinclair, which has similar agreements with TV stations owned by Stephen Mumblow and Cunningham Broadcasting.

Mark Fratrik, a longtime face of BIA Advisory Services whose forecasts and commentaries on broadcast business trends are quoted widely, will retire from the company at the end of June.

Nicole Ovadia, vice president, forecasting & analysis, will lead its forecast team.

Fratrik is senior vice president and chief economist of the firm, which he joined 21 years ago. “He will continue as a strategic advisor and analyst to the company, offering continuity for the firm’s forecasting, insights and analytics services,” it said in its announcement.

Fratrik began working in local media research and analysis in the 1980s. He worked for five years at the Federal Trade Commission’s Bureau of Economics, and subsequently was a vice president/economist for the National Association of Broadcasters.“When I look at the accomplishments of BIA over Mark’s 21-year tenure at BIA, there’s a direct correlation between our success and Mark’s dedication and expertise,” said CEO and founder Tom Buono.

Ovadia, who joined BIA this spring, is a former director of the New York State Broadcasters Association. She was with Emmis Communications for 14 years with its corporate Strategy Group and as a vice president for the company’s New York stations. She received her undergraduate degree from Wharton and has an MBA from MIT Sloan.

CHANTILLY, Va.—BIA Advisory Services has added three key personnel to augment its forecasting and consulting divisions. 

The new hires include Nicole Ovadia being named BIA’s new vice president of forecasting and analysis, Leyla Chatti joining as a senior media analyst and Mark Dugan becoming director of data insights and client relations.

In her new role at BIA Ovadia will focus on enhancing BIA’s U.S. local media advertising forecast models and to support strategic and financial consulting projects with insights and analysis on broadcasting, digital trends, and economic impacts.

“BIA’s role as a trusted advisor has been increasing significantly, and I am excited to expand our team to support our efforts for clients,” said Tom Buono, CEO and founder, BIA Advisory Services. “The media marketplace is extremely dynamic and it's incumbent on us to continually challenge ourselves to deliver the best data and insights that help our clients with their goals and priorities. Our new team members have exactly the skill sets necessary to immediately deepen our impact and value to clients.”

Ovadia comes to BIA from the New York State Broadcasters Association (NYSBA) where she had a successful track record advocating for NYC Radio. Prior to that, she spent over 14 years with Emmis Communications at both the corporate level in the Strategy Group focusing on sales and acquisitions and at the local level in New York where she served as vice president customer success.

Over her career, Ovadia has focused on building forecast models, implementing process improvements, and building partnerships with clients. These will all be areas she will focus on at BIA. In addition to her role in forecasting, Ovadia will be leading enhanced initiatives to develop recommendations and conclusions based on forecasted outcomes and will work with the forecasting team to develop and share custom analyses with clients. Ovadia possesses a B.S. degree in Economics from Wharton and an MBA from MIT Sloan. She will be based in New York City.

BIA also announced that Leyla Chatti has joined as a senior media analyst and Mark Dugan as director of data insights and client relations.

Chatti comes to BIA from Warner Brothers Digital where she worked in the business intelligence area analyzing and reporting audience insights to global leadership. Prior to that, she was a client insights analyst for the financial services area at Comscore. At BIA, Chatti will do qualitative and quantitative research and use BIA’s advertising forecast to develop custom strategic business insights for clients. She will also be focused on business vertical analysis by media channel. Chatti earned her B.A. from the University of Virginia. Chatti will be based in Washington, DC.

Dugan comes to BIA from Sinclair Broadcasting, where he was a research director for WPGH-TV in Pittsburgh. In this role, Dugan worked regularly with Nielsen, Scarborough, Media Audit, and Kantar Research to develop customized client-centric presentations and assist sales management to better position the station. He also trained sales staff in projection and estimate techniques. Dugan has also been an account executive at Raycom Media and Research Director at Granite Broadcasting. Dugan will be based in Pittsburg, PA.

At BIA, Dugan will use his industry experience to help clients use BIA data and research effectively and efficiently. Mark has his MBA with a concentration in Marketing and a BA in Psychology from the University of Rochester.

Ovadia, Chatti, and Dugan have started in their positions at BIA. 

CHANTILLY, Va.—BIA Advisory Services is forecasting a strong U.S. local ad market in 2022, growing by 10.1% to $161.5 billion as mobile advertising spending surpasses direct mail for the first time ever.  

The new forecasts for the entire U.S. local ad market follow the release in late September of the BIA forecasts for local television in 2022. That release forecast that local TV will rise to $19.3 billion in OTA advertising, and $1.7 billion in digital in 2022; a sign of a strong $21 billion industry that delivers its audience for political campaigners, the BIA said. 

In BIA’s `U.S. Local Advertising Forecast 2022' released on October 13, the overall local U.S. advertising market is expected to reach $161.5 billion – a 10.1 percent year over year bounce – buoyed by overall strong economic tailwinds coming out of 2021. 

The forecast reported that traditional media revenue will account for $84.6 billion and digital media will be close behind at $76.8. BIA also anticipates $7.5 billion of the sum will come from political advertising during a strong election season.

“For a long time, we’ve been talking about direct mail as the king of the share of wallet in local ad spending,” said Rick Ducey, managing director of BIA Advisory Services. “This coming year, for the first time, we pass the crown over to mobile, as its momentum drives it to be the biggest overall piece of the spending wallet – and we expect that to continue in the foreseeable future.”

BIA puts mobile spending at 21 percent of the 2022 forecast and direct mail at 20.7 percent, but the gap between the two will continue to widen, BIA said. 

Overall, digital ad spending will reach $76.8 billion, with Google and Facebook controlling over half of the spending. Google takes the lion’s share at $26.8 billion, compared with Facebook’s $14.3 billion, BIA reported. 

Ducey points to four reasons mobile has become the number one advertising medium: (1) COVID’s impact on consumer’s increased time spent with mobile and other digital media making digital the place to find and target consumers; (2) digital’s overall momentum in winning more revenue share of media time from traditional media; (3) the rise of virtual consumer channels like delivery, curbside pickup and ecommerce in top categories like retail, restaurants, CPG where physical channels like retail store visits decline; and (4) greater consumer acceptance and use of virtual and ecommerce channels. 

Mark Fratrik, senior vice president and chief economist at BIA, added that the firm’s U.S. Local Advertising forecast also sees a rise in local radio advertising revenue in 2022. 

Radio is expected to generate $12.7 billion split between over-the-air ($11.0 billion) and digital ($1.7 billion). By 2026 radio digital revenues are expected to reach $2.4 billion, while OTA goes up and down with the even political years and ends at $11.7 in 2026. 

“Radio isn’t faring as well as local broadcast TV, and it doesn’t get the same bump as TV in political years,” said Fratrik. “But it is getting close to its pre-pandemic levels as people continue to return to work commutes and traveling by car.”

“I like to refer to our data on local television as our ‘piano key graphs,’ because during even political years it is very apparent that the advertising revenue will rise and then dip the following year,” Fratrik added. 

WASHINGTON—Broadcasters are being short changed for their local news content from two of the biggest technology companies, Google and Facebook, according to a new study from BIA Advisory Services. The amount of money that broadcasters lose under these current conditions approaches $2 billion annually.

BIA’s study, “The Economic Impact of Big Tech Platforms on the Viability of Local Broadcast News,” which was commissioned by NAB, found that because large technology platforms exercise their substantial market power, broadcasters are not receiving fair compensation for their content. BIA said that these tech platforms use their market power to advance their own growth at the detriment of local broadcasters, which can put a strain on the viability of local news.

The study focused on Google Search and Facebook News Feed. Through interviews with broadcast group executives and modeling of high economic impact practices, the study found that local broadcasters lose $1.873 billion annually by supplying their content to these platforms.

In addition, the study concluded that no technology platform allows broadcasters to earn equitable revenue based on current practices. It said that algorithms do not properly weigh local broadcast news, “which intentionally and unfairly undervalues the broadcast content in search queries.” The study also noted that broadcast content and local news are often included in search returns and news feeds alongside questionable sources and disinformation, which could potentially confuse users and instill distrust.

“Even though we focused our quantitative analysis on Google and Facebook, the market power of other platforms and services, such as Amazon and Apple, were cited as increasingly undermining the viability of local news media,” said Rick Ducey, managing director at BIA Advisory Services. “The growth of these platforms present the potential for substantial future harm to the industry if not constrained by government action.”

NAB has been pushing for such government action against major tech platforms, saying it puts them at a disadvantage. Last fall, Congress concluded an investigation that big tech can in fact harm the news industry and some legislation is reportedly in the works to help support smaller broadcasters against the likes of major tech companies.

“Radio and television broadcasters play a vital role in providing Americans with valuable news and information, shining a light on the events shaping their communities,” said NAB President and CEO Gordon Smith. “Unfortunately, this study makes clear that the competitive advantage of a handful of big tech platforms prevents broadcasters from recouping their substantial investment in local news, putting local journalism at risk. Preserving quality, trusted journalism in communities will require policies that ensure broadcasters are fairly and justly compensated for their valuable content.”

Local broadcasters are expected to be on Capitol Hill this week as part of NAB’s annual State Leadership Conference to advocate for issues affecting the broadcast industry. For more information, visit NAB’s website. 

CHANTILLY, Va.—Advertisers are following viewers’ eyeballs and spending more on OTT spots, with substantial growth expected over the next few years, according to BIA Advisory Services, which projects that OTT local ad spending will jump from about $1.18 billion to $2.37 billion by 2025.

These projections were discussed during BIA’s webinar, “All Eyes on OTT—Breakout Media Category in 2021.” In addition to OTT advertising estimates—which include Connected TV numbers—the webinar featured a panel discussion with industry experts sharing important trends and challenges surrounding OTT advertising.

BIA specializes in local advertising, so its projections of OTT ad spending refers to local. For 2020, the total ad spending number for OTT came in at $990 million; BIA expects that number to cross the $1 billion mark in 2021 with a total of $1.176 billion. Increased growth is expected over the next few years, culminating in the $2.373 billion projected OTT ad spending in 2025. All told, the Compound Annual Growth Rate during this period would be 19.1%.

It’s not just the total that is increasing, OTT’s share of the total ad spending is slated to increase over the same time period. Linear TV is still the largest sector for ad spending, but its lead is dwindling due to the rise in OTT ad spending, as well as increases in online and mobile.

The webinar also featured a presentation from Justin Fromm, executive vice president, Business Intelligence, for Advertisers Perceptions for BIA, who detailed results from an annual survey showing that video is still considered the most important media type by a healthy margin of advertisers (49%) to meet their goals and that OTT is becoming a popular new resource for them.

Forty-one percent of respondents said that they increased their ad spending for streaming services (CTV/OTT) over the last year, the largest increase of any other digital video tactic. It was a 42% increase for TV Tactic ad spend; linear came in at a 26% increase, but also saw the largest decrease in spending at 14%.

In terms of frequency of buying addressable advertising, streaming was the third highest outlet for doing so “all or most of the time,” behind social media and DSPs. Linear, meanwhile, was the least likely to do this all or most of the time, and the most likely to do it less than half the time or never.

Still, linear TV is considered a top-five video advertising tactic by the highest percentage of advertisers (65%), but streaming is closing in on it, with 57% ranking it among their top five resources.

The presentation also touched upon important factors to consider when it comes to selecting an OTT advertising partner. More than half (55%) of respondents said that audience reach was most important, with quality of programming (43%) and quality of advertising opportunities (38%) rounding out the top three. Reach was also a top factor for CTV ads (50%), just behind targeting capabilities (53%) as the most important.

There is still a need for advertisers to understand what they are getting with OTT or CTV advertising. When given a statement saying that adding OTT to a linear buy is just buying impressions without knowing the reach, frequency or effectiveness of the campaign, 58% of advertisers agreed.

The survey also showed that ad fraud was the top cited concern from advertisers, with ad fraud in digital video leading the way at 36% and ad fraud in OTT at 29%. However, despite recent examples of CTV ad fraud cases, many of the panelists agreed that the perception is greater than the actual risk.

The BIA “All Eyes on OTT” webinar is now available to watch in full on YouTube. 

CHANTILLY, Va.—BIA Advisory Services has released its forecast for U.S. local advertising in 2021, which among a growth as the industry rebounds from COVID-19 includes the emergence of OTT and Connected TV as key players in the broadcast industry’s advertising outlook.

“The OTT TV and Connected TV segment are game changers for the broadcast industry because it is now very easy to purchase fragmented inventory and do audience targeting,” said Rick Ducey, BIA managing director. “These improvements will help sellers better justify local OTT buying, and we expect local audience share gained in Q2 and Q3 of 2020 will be maintained and expanded going forward, presenting a tremendous opportunity for the industry.”

BIA reported that OTT local advertising generated $1 billion in revenue in 2020. With targeted advertising capabilities with quality video programming, BIA projects that OTT local advertising will grow to $1.2 billion in 2021.

Traditional broadcast advertising among local TV and local radio stations will still be the biggest draws for the broadcast industry, however. Local TV is estimated to bring in $15.7 billion in 2021, while local radio is estimated to net $12.6 billion.

That will put both local TV and local radio in the top five of revenue sources in BIA’s projections. The top three is rounded out by online, with an estimated $23.3 billion; mobile at $23.4 billion; and direct mail at $31.2 billion. In total, traditional media revenue will account for 55.3% of local advertising with $76.1 billion, which is actually a slight decline.

Digital media revenue will make up for that dip, according to BIA projections, earning $61.5 billion in 2021. It’s share of 44.7% of the market is an increase of 3.7% from 2020.

Overall, BIA projects that U.S. local advertising revenue across the media will hit $137.5 billion in 2021, up 2.5% from 2020, with the availability of a COVID-19 vaccine a big factor. However, BIA does not expect pre-COVID levels to return until 2022.

CHANTILLY, Va.—As local news continues to try and compete against digital competitors, a new study provides support to the claim that allowing stations in a market to merge will increase their local news output.

Gray Television backed the BIA Advisory Services study that reviewed the number of hours of local news provided by Gray TV in 93 of its local TV markets in 2014 and 2020, comparing markets where Gray acquired another TV station to ones where it did not.

This study is based around the suggestion that many TV broadcasters have made in recent years for the FCC to eliminate or relax longstanding federal regulations that prohibit common ownership of more than one TV station in a local market, which broadcasters believe could promote greater local news production.

BIA found that in markets where Gray TV acquired a second TV station or an additional major network affiliation, Gray increased its weekly local news production far greater than in markets without any in-market consolidation.

Per BIA’s findings, in markets with a consolidation event, the average increase of weekly local news production was 7.5 hours, with the average weekly news output increasing 27.8%. In markets without consolidation, local news increased at 6.2 hours per week, an average increase of 17.5%.

Consolidation events had significant impact in mid-sized markets (DMAs 51-100) and small markets (101-120). In these markets with consolidation, local news output increased by 7.4 hours per week (27.9%); mid-size or small markets without a consolidation increased 5.2 hours per week (18.2%). This growth was even larger in markets ranked 151-210, where those with consolidation saw a weekly increase of 10.1 hours (37%), compared to 3.8 hours in these markets without a consolidation event.

Large markets saw significant gains in local news output regardless of a consolidation (12.8 additional hours per week).

According to the BIA study, in seven of Gray’s mid-sized and small markets, Gray has consolidated English-language and Spanish-language stations. In four of those markets, Gray shares the resources and equipment from its English-language station to provide news in Spanish for its Spanish-language station.

“Gray’s experience in 93 of the 210 television markets demonstrates that relaxation of the FCC’s ownership rules—especially in mid-size and small markets—is likely to lead to more efficient television combinations that will increase the hours of local news available to consumers and provide more of the positive social benefits associated with local television news,” BIA concluded.

The full BIA report is available online.

CHANTILLY, Va.—As the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic rolls on in the U.S., BIA Advisory Services has updated its 2020 local advertising revenue forecast from April to today, where it is estimating $140.4 billion for the total local advertising market.

The April readjustment from BIA dropped the company’s initial projection of $161.3 billion for 2020 to $144.3 billion. Now with this latest drop to $140.4 billion, 2020 would experience a 6.1% decline from 2019’s numbers, even with the upcoming presidential election.

Revenue from political ads are one of the few positives for the local ad markets. Since April, BIA has increased the expected political ad spend from $7.1 billion to $7.3 billion. Of that new spending, $138 million is estimated to be going to TV OTA, $40 million to cable, $26 million to online/digital and $5 million to radio OTA.

Other advertising verticals showing some resilience during these times are healthcare and finance & insurance. While both are down in overall ad revenue spend, there is steady and in some cases even increasing ad spend.

For overall media ad spend, all media except for OTT are experiencing a decline in ad revenue.

“Right now, we believe a realistic view of the economy overall and the advertising marketplace is that after a dramatic decrease in the second-quarter and a bumpy start to the third, the remainder of the year will turn positive but end up with an overall decline in local advertising for the year,” said Mark Fratrik, senior vice president and chief economist at BIA.

BIA is set to join SalesFuel to present local advertising data and analysis during the “Accelerating 4th Quarter Revenue: Planning for 2021” webinar on Aug. 18 at 11 a.m. ET.

For more information, visit www.bia.com.  

CHANTILLY, Va.—The advertising revenue forecast for local TV stations does not look as sunny as it did at the start of 2020 from BIA’s point of view, but even while there has been a negative impact because of the coronavirus pandemic, the prospect of an election still puts 2020 slightly ahead of 2019.

After initially projecting U.S. local TV ad revenue to reach $19.4 billion earlier in the year, BIA now estimates that will come down to $18.5 billion ($17 million over-the-air revenue, $1.5 million digital revenue). This is according to BIA’s Investing in Television Q1 Market Report and MEDIA Access Pro.

“Local television stations, like all media, will see significant decreases in advertising from many business verticals like travel, leisure and retail,” said Mark Fratrik, senior vice president and chief economist at BIA Advisory Services. “Political advertising will buffer those decreases in many markets that have competitive Senatorial and Gubernatorial races and in Presidential battleground states. Plus, continued growth in OTT and digital will help to soften the impact of the pandemic on advertising revenue.”

PLUS: Two-Thirds of Ad Buyers Significantly Impacted by COVID-19

BIA estimates that $7.1 billion will be spent on local political ads through Q4 2020, with over-the-air netting 45.8% of political ad spend. The growth of political advertising spend in OTT will also benefit local TV owners, according to BIA.

In addition, $10.44 billion of the BIA forecast represents retransmission consent agreements between local TV stations and cable/satellite companies/virtual MVPDs for 2020. BIA expects retransmission fees to continue to rise, based primarily on rate increases in each market.

PLUS: Pandemic Brings TV to the Forefront

“It is going to be a dynamic marketplace this year, and we will continually monitor the nationwide and local economies to update our forecast based on new information,” said Fratrik.

BIA has also announced that Local TV Market Profiles and Stations Overviews are now available through the BIA ADVantage platform.

For more information, visit www.bia.com.

CHANTILLY, Va.—The local advertising market looks different than it did at the start of 2020 because of the coronavirus, and BIA Advisory Services is readjusting its revenue projections as a result. After initially estimating a total revenue of $161.3 billion back in November 2019, BIA now projects the 2020 numbers to be $144.3 billion, a drop of 10.6%.

Local television, and local radio, have been heavily impacted by decreased ad spending by leisure & entertainment, restaurants, retail companies and sports cancellations. For local over-the-air TV, BIA decreased its estimated revenue for the year by $800 million ($17.8 billion to $17 billion); it projected the same loss for cable ($6.4 billion down to $5.6 billion). For online platforms, including TV online advertising and OTT advertising, the drop is estimated to be less significant, but still $100 million less each.

“A realistic view of the virus is that it will continue to have a negative impact on the second quarter, with some continuation into the third quarter,” said Mark Fratrik, senior vice president and chief economist, BIA. “We have assumed that there will be a strong rebound in the latter part of the year, but we will have to re-evaluate as the on-going economic impact becomes clearer.”

That rebound could come in the form of political advertising as the U.S. general election will take place in early November. These political ads are expected to soften the revenue decrease for local cable and local OTA TV stations compared to other media.

Related, many organizations, like NAB, and members of Congress have been pushing for federal advertising dollars to go to local media stations to help them continue to operate amid this loss in traditional advertising revenue.

As far as how to best move forward among the current uncertainty, BIA CEO and founder Thomas Buono says that media groups can focus on three key areas: preserving liquidity, emphasize and manage relationships and think forward as a team.

BIA is offering detailed local ad market revenue forecasts for 210 TV markets, along with a COVID resource area, through its BIA ADVantage platform.

For more information, visit www.bia.com.  

CHANTILLY, Va.—NextGen TV offers clear upsides for local TV stations, which have the potential to grow revenue 50% over the next 10 years as they deploy ATSC 3.0, says a new BIA forecast.

The outlook for 3.0, presented Jan. 16 at SMPTE Washington, D.C., Chapter’s NextGen TV Summit, finds that with advanced TV the compounded annual growth rate for local broadcasters has the potential to reach 8%, compared to a 3.8% CAGR baseline.

“While a number of questions remain, there are clear upside scenarios for local TV groups investing in NextGen TV,” said BIA Managing Director Rick Ducey. “Consumer side revenue business models will take longer to scale, but business and government business models can scale much faster.”

BIA pointed out that the transition to NextGen TV for broadcasters is voluntary and the rollout of ATSC 3.0 will be done on a market-by-market basis. Thus, consumer-based business models will have a longer adoption curve.

However, NextGen TV corrects shortcomings local TV has as an advertising platform relative to competitors, the forecast pointed out. Interactivity, addressability, dynamic ad insertion, mobile, attribution and first-party data support are all benefits NextGen TV offers that strengthen local TV.

While NextGen TV offers new revenue sources, commercials and retrans will continue to be important revenue sources, said BIA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Mark Fratrik.

“Even with the new capabilities NextGen TV provides, traditional linear TV advertising and retransmission will continue to account for the lion’s share of revenues throughout the 2020s,” he said.

Still, NextGen TV will prove to be an important initiative. “NextGen TV represents an historically significant thrust by local TV broadcasters to establish themselves as an internet-native, mobile first, advanced TV capable distribution platform,” said Ducey.

To download the forecast visit the BIA Advisory Services website.

For a comprehensive source of TV Technology’s ATSC 3.0 coverage, see ourATSC3 silo.

CHANTILLY, Va.—The 2020 presidential election will help U.S. local advertising revenue reach new heights, a projected $161.3 billion to be exact, according to a recent report from BIA Advisory Services.

BIA’s “U.S. Local Advertising Forecast 2020” forecast would be a 5.8% growth rate from the $152.5 billion in ad revenue from 2019, with political ad spending helping to boost revenue. Where this revenue comes from is also seeing significant change, as BIA sees increases in ad revenue from OTT and social media, though traditional media will remain the biggest resource.

Traditional media is expected to account for $94.4 billion of the ad revenue in 2020, up from $93.2 billion in 2019, which would make up 58.5% of the total revenue. Online/digital revenue will see a larger growth, however, earning an estimated $66.9 billion in 2020, or 41.5% of the total revenue; it earned $59.3 billion in 2019. OTT and social media are big drivers for this increase.

BIA forecasts that $1.06 billion in local activated advertising will be spent on OTT in 2020, and that number will grow to $2.13 billion by 2024. For social, $29.5 billion will be spent in 2020, growing to $44.6 billion by 2024. Social media ad revenue primarily comes from mobile devices, with them currently representing a 93.8% total and an expectation to hit 96% by 2024, as mobile native/social is the fastest growing segment of mobile advertising at 13.9%.

As far as the specifics of political ad spending, BIA projects that $6.58 billion will be spent for the 2020 elections. Over-the-air will account for nearly half ($3.07 billion or 47%), but online digital will bring in about 22% ($1.42 billion) and even OTT is getting in on the action, with an estimated $51 million (0.8%).

“The expectation of an aggressive presidential election next year, along with primaries and state-wide races, indicate that political ad spending will be a serious driver of local ad revenue next year,” said Mark Fratrik, chief economist and senior vice president at BIA. “Combine these factors with the ongoing growth of mobile and social advertising and the emergence and future significant advancement in over-the-top advertising, the revenue landscape for next year looks robust.”

The full “U.S. Local Advertising Forecast 2020” report is available on BIA’s website.

CHANTILLY, Va.—BIA Advisory Services has announced that it is adding local OTT advertising to its Local U.S. Ad Forecasts, and in its initial report highlighted that OTT revenue is and is projected to grow a strong clip over the next few years.

BIA defines OTT advertising as locally targeted advertising included on streaming video that is delivered to TV sets via internet connections. OTT ad forecasts from BIA focus on the local activation of OTT video impressions on connected TVs. BIA believes that OTT ad inventory can be both complementary and competitive for local linear TV ad budgets.

After generating $598 million in OTT revenue in 2018, BIA estimates that number is set to grow to $857 million in 2019 and eventually to $2.13 billion in 2024, which would represent a 148% growth from 2019.

“The industry has reached a stage where there are several existing and emerging OTT players that have a high growth potential,” said Mark Fratrik, chief economist and senior vice president at BIA Advisory Services. “By partnering with them, broadcasters can drive new revenue by delivering their valuable content and diverse audiences. I believe we’re at the tip of the opportunity and we’re working closely with OTT firms to analyze revenue opportunities.”

BIA will release its complete U.S. Local Advertising Forecast, covering 16 markets including OTT, in early October. The report is available for all 210 local TV markets and is based on a proprietary forecasting methodology of the local advertising marketplace.

CHANTILLY, VA.—Candidates for office next year will spend $6.55 billion on local political advertising with nearly half being spent on over-the-air television, according to a new estimate from BIA Advisory Service.

BIA is forecasting political spending on OTA TV advertising will reach $3.08 billion, or 47% of the total, followed by online/digital outlets at $1.37 billion (21%), multichannel video programming distributors (MVPDs) at $919 million (14%) and radio at $312 million (4.8%). The rest will go to other media outlets, including direct mail, which normally is a major political advertising medium but will only capture a small percentage in 2020, BIA said.

“Campaigns will continue to rely on television as a dominant platform for advertising while supplementing with digital advertising across mobile and desktop,” said Mark Fratrik, chief economist and SVP at BIA Advisory Services.

Los Angeles, Phoenix and Philadelphia are expected to top media markets in terms of political ad spending next year. In Los Angeles, candidates will spend $168 million on TV, $76 million on digital, $55 million on cable TV and $17 million on radio, according to BIA.

TV spending in Phoenix and Philadelphia will be high with the former seeing $156 million in spending and the latter experiencing a TV ad spend of $135 million, the company said.

“In some of the smaller markets, one thing to keep an eye on is how the huge volume of political advertising could crowd out other local advertisers during primary and general election seasons,” said Fratrik. “That may have an impact on advertisers and media companies, and we’ll certainly factor that into our forecasting as we go through the fall.”

The estimates of 2020 political advertising will be part of BIA ADVantage, an advertising intelligence report focusing on 94 markets.

More information is available on the BIA Advisory Services website.

CHANTILLY, Va.—The BIA Advisory Services has done some recalculations and is now projecting the total local media marketplace for 2019 to be higher than expected earlier in the year, with ad revenue now estimated to reach $148.8 billion. BIA cites three key reasons for this update: a strong economy, an early start to the 2020 election and increases in mobile and mobile-social advertising.

As for how ad revenue is predicted to be split up, $89.2 billion (60%) will be earned by traditional media, with $59.5 billion (40%) going to digital media. Online/digital advertising revenue is expected to continue to grow, however, at a CAGR of 9% from now to 2023, while traditional advertising revenue will see a CAGR of -1.4% over the same period.

Local video is expected to be the second biggest contributor to ad revenue (only behind direct mail), generating $29.5 billion (a 19.9% share). Local video covers OTA TV, local cable, local online video, out-of-home video and mobile video; online, out-of-home and mobile video’s ad revenue is a key in local video remaining competitive.

Mobile and online/interactive ad revenue will make up a combined 28.2% of the market share, while local radio rounds out the top five sources, earning 9.8%.

“Although it’s a non-political year, the sheer number of Democratic candidates running and the significant attention this presidential race is garnering is driving earlier than usual advertising revenue across television and mobile/social channels,” said Mark Fratrik, senior vice president and chief economist for BIA. “Additionally, we are more bullish on certain digital advertising platforms like mobile due to its targetability, measurability, attribution and high level of adoption by consumers.”

The updated U.S. Local Advertising Forecast 2019 report can be viewed here.

CHANTILLY, Va.—Most local advertisers around the country will hold steady on their ad spending and media allocations this year, a new BIA reveals.

The forecast, part of the newly released U.S. SAM Survey of Advertising and Marketing, projects that amusement parks, sports teams, movie theaters and other entertainment venues are the only advertisers that will spend slightly more this year. Retailers, service professionals and home/trade service advertisers are expected to maintain their ad spend.

When it comes to platforms, advertisers have expressed a willingness to bump up their ad spend on mobile and social.

“Over the past several years, our research indicates that advertisers are more focused on personalized, targeted communications, and they believe mobile and social deliver on important customer engagement KPIs,” said Celine Matthiessen, BIA's VP of Analysis and Insights and SAM study director.

The survey also revealed an important shift in the priorities of advertisers. It found advertisers are interested in more than basic demographic targeting; they want insight into the behavior of consumers as they make their path to a purchase.

Advertisers want to know the websites and social pages consumers have visited and their searches that have led to their buying products and services, the SAM survey said.

As a result, ad sellers have an obligation to show how their channel reaches the right customers throughout the buying process in a trackable manner, it said.

The area of location-targeted ads is the category of mobile with the greatest growth. According to the findings, just 13 percent of businesses surveyed said they were not spending money on mobile advertising, but planned to do so this year.

Across all business categories, 35.5 percent of businesses use mobile location-aware, while 24 percent use mobile search, the SAM survey revealed.

“Because businesses like the targeting (behavioral) opportunities that mobile and social offer, these platforms continue to show the largest signs of advertiser growth,” said Matthiessen.

The survey also found buyers of traditional media are “extremely comfortable” buying digital ads from their local sales person, “so sellers should be prepared to sell offers across multiple platforms,” she said.

Social and mobile media, email, video, display and SEO are the most popular digital ads purchased via traditional channels, the survey said.

CHANTILLY, VA.—Local advertising spending in the state of New York will reach $13.7 billion in 2017 across the Empire State’s 10 local media markets, according to BIA/Kelsey’s updated 2017 U.S. Local Advertising Forecast. The top five vertical market categories, are retail, general services, financial/ insurance services, auto and restaurants, and represent more than 63 percent of the ad revenue with total local market dollars going across traditional and online/digital media.

“Our New York state forecast reveals a similar trend to what we are seeing across the country. Most of the companies in the top verticals still pour dollars into traditional advertising choices like direct mail and TV,” said Mark Fratrik, chief economist and senior vide president of BIA/Kelsey. “However, when we look at the growth media in New York, a few striking shifts will occur over the next five years. For example, mobile and online radio advertising are dramatically increasing in share and revenue generation.”

Of the 12 media tracked in the firm’s forecast, the top five choices for vertical expenditures in New York state for 2017 include:
· Direct mail ($3.57 billion)
· Online ($1.78 billion)
· TV Over-the-Air ($1.73 billion)
· Mobile ($1.54 billion)
· Radio Over-the-Air ($992.2 million)
Over the next five years, the revenue and share predictions adjust, moving mobile up three spots into the number two media by 2021.

“The fluctuating media landscape offers new opportunities for emerging digital solutions to capture more revenue dollars, and for other traditional media to both maintain their positions and strengthen their value to advertisers with offerings such as programmatic,” Fratrik added.

The firm’s forecast shows that the financial/insurance services vertical in New York is projected to grow by 22 percent through 2021. During this time, financial/insurance services digital and traditional local ad spending in New York state is projected to primarily grow through the following channels:
· Mobile (+$256.4 million)
· Online (+$60.3 million)
· Radio Online (+$13.1 million)
· Email (+$8.5 million)
· Out of Home (+$8.2 million)

BIA/Kelsey will present its New York state and nationwide market intelligence at its Local Impact New York event on Wednesday, July 12 at the IAB Ad Lab in New York City.