Granted, there were incremental
increases in the early multiscreen metrics,
which only makes sense, because more
screens were measured. When out-of-home
viewing consisted of TV everywhere
else—airports, bars, airline seats, buses,
gas pumps, etc.—it was roughly estimated.
Advertisers said, “what-ever.” Now, there’s
a chance for the TV biz to win back a little
leverage as measurement methods catch
up with the market. Increased usage initially
will be detected, spawning market analyses
predicting $120 bazillion in multiscreen
delivery by 2016 based in part on a
supervirus causing people to sprout spare
Every ecosystem we consider—be it
media, the economy or spectrum—relies
on human behavior, which is finite, and
functions like a sine wave. E.g., Hash jeans,
Palm Pilots, “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire,”
hats, shag carpet, Virginia Slims, interlaced
video. The variation becomes constant long-term,
but we don’t do long-term these days.
We do now, not in the Zen sense, but in the
immediate-gratification sense. And it gratifies
us to think that growth curves that serve us
will last and last and last and last.
Whatever increased usage is indicated in
the early multiscreen metrics should be taken
with a grain of salt. Much more may be spent
on attorneys negotiating rights and fights
among networks and Aereo, Dish, et al, than
is to be made from mobile TV, which so far
has been met with general indifference.
Even if it becomes a big deal for a while,
history shows us that something else will get
That’s how we roll.