Broadcast TV Holds in BIA/Kelsey Revision of Local Media Revenue Forecast
Newspapers, not so good
October 8, 2012
|CHANTILLY, VA. —In BIA/Kelsey’s upcoming revision to its U.S. Local Media revenue estimates, TV held steady.
Television revenues are projected to climb to $20.3 billion, up 10 percent, which is what BIA/Kelsey originally forecast for the political year. TV online and digital revenues will rise $14.9 percent to $615 million. Over-the-air advertising will be at $19.7 billion, up 9.9 percent total. Last year’s revenues came in at $18.437 billion—$525 million digital and $17.902 billion over-the-air.
Radio is being revised downward to $14.868 billion for 2012, a 2.2 percent increase. Of that, $14.377 billion is expected to be generated from over-the-air advertising, representing an increase of 1.9 percent from 2011. Radio online and digital revenues are projected to hit $491 million, a 12.1 percent increase. In 2011 radio revenues were $14.553 billion –$438 million digital and $14.115 billion over-the-air.
Where BIA/Kelsey initially expected a total decrease of 5 percent for the newspaper industry (print decrease of 6.6 percent and online increase of 6 percent), results in the newspaper industry so far this year has been more disappointing, the market researcher said. It now expects a total decrease of 8.1 percent (print decrease of 10 percent and online increase of 5 percent).
“With some high-profile newspapers cutting back on the number of days being published and the continued erosion of readership, the outlook for newspapers is proving exceptionally more challenging than expected,” BIA/Kelsey said. For the entire period of 2011 through 2016, BIA/Kelsey expects the compounded annual growth rate of all newspaper advertising to end up being negative 5.4 percent ( down 7.3 percent for print advertising and up 4.6 percent for online advertising).