High-end television production is in trouble. So are high-end equipment manufacturers. The marketplace is deciding that HDV is not only good enough, but it’s really really good.

   How good? Good enough for some networks to air in primetime.

You’ll see JVC’s JY-HD10 HDV footage on American Idol during the auditions. Want more than a blockbuster reality show? How about Sony’s HVR-Z1 on JAG?
This wasn’t a secret, they couldn’t fit a Sony F900 in a helicopter to do an over-the-shoulder shot, so a Sony HVR-Z1 HDV was used. According to what I’ve heard, it intercut great.

And that’s the problem: If HDV intercuts great, doesn’t that mean that on its own it’s great?

Sure does. There’s been a shoot-out between the Sony F900 and a Sony Z1. On calibrated monitors the colorimetry is very close. There was a difference in resolution, but that’s when you have something better than the HDV Z1 to compare it to. What if you didn’t?

That brings us to news. Back when DVCAM was introduced by Sony in 1996, they promoted it as a non-broadcast professional format.

Rule #1: Never tell your customers what your products are supposed to do or not do.

Rule #2: Your customers will tell you what your products will or will not do.

Sony heard from its customers -- broadcast news customers who said that DVCAM was good enough for them. And why not? Low initial cost, low total cost of ownership, excellent quality. Talk about return on investment -- DVCAM hardly has any investment when compared to traditional, more expensive formats. No wonder it’s the most successful format in history.

Now stations are looking at HDV. One station manager and news director I spoke with said they plan to convert their news operations to HDV, in the field and in the studio (unlike JVC’s HD-10 HDV camcorder which has an encode/decode latency on the HD output, the Sony Z1 does not). I was told by the beaming station duo that they would be the first HD news in their market and that:

 “Eventually there will be a third-party studio kit for the Z1 just as there is for JVC’s HD-10.”

 “For editing, we’ll just add an inexpensive HDV plug-in.”

 “For the cost of one HDCAM, we can buy 12 Z1s... 15 if we go to B&H!”

Of course they’ll need some decks, but when Sony announced its HDV system, they bragged about the “under $20,000” price tag.

How much margin do you think HDV gives manufacturers? What if folks in broadcast (arguably not a gigantic market but a substantial one) move from the “broadcast” formats like HDCAM, XDCAM, DVCPRO50, DVCPROHD, and P2 to HDV or other soon to come inexpensive HD formats. Sure, many will see the benefits of “broadcast” HD and tapeless systems, but many will not. That minimal HDV margin will have an impact on future R&D. Just don’t say you haven’t been warned (I’m talking to both end users and manufacturers, who already know this).

Want to know something really scary? When I asked the HDV station duo what it would take to move to “broadcast” HD. They said they would do it when their competitors went HD, if they could see a big difference in the quality. That’s a big “if.”